本文選題：生育成本 + 外部化　； 參考：《財經(jīng)問題研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：在中國城鄉(xiāng)中低收入家庭較多、養(yǎng)老體系不完善、養(yǎng)老的社會化和市場化水平不高,特別是廣大農(nóng)村地區(qū)主要依賴家庭養(yǎng)老的情況下,本文通過對生育行為的外部性進(jìn)行界定、分析和推導(dǎo)得出以下結(jié)論:養(yǎng)老方式依賴家庭內(nèi)部轉(zhuǎn)移支付和政府承擔(dān)撫養(yǎng)子女成本,二者導(dǎo)致的成本外部化會促使家庭決策下生育子女?dāng)?shù)量的增加,進(jìn)而造成生育的"公地悲劇"。筆者使用2012年國家衛(wèi)生和計劃生育委員會流動人口監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實證檢驗,旨在為中國的生育政策改革提供新的觀察視角,推動依賴子女轉(zhuǎn)移支付的農(nóng)村地區(qū)社會養(yǎng)老體系進(jìn)一步完善,提高新型農(nóng)村社會養(yǎng)老保險保障水平,改變家庭養(yǎng)老的傳統(tǒng)觀念,以期有利于抵消政府承擔(dān)生育成本導(dǎo)致的負(fù)外部性影響,防止生育政策放松后可能出現(xiàn)的農(nóng)村生育率反彈和人口結(jié)構(gòu)惡化。
[Abstract]:Under the situation that there are more low- and middle-income families in urban and rural areas in China, the pension system is not perfect, the socialization and marketization of old-age support is not high, especially in the vast rural areas, which mainly rely on the family for the aged, this paper defines the externality of fertility behavior. The conclusions are as follows: the old-age mode depends on the transfer payment within the family and the government bears the cost of raising children. The externalization of the cost will promote the increase of the number of children in the family decision-making. Thus causing the birth of the "tragedy of the Commons." In order to provide a new perspective for the reform of China's fertility policy, the author uses the monitoring data of the floating population of the National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2012 to conduct an empirical test. To promote the further improvement of the social pension system in rural areas, which depends on the transfer payment of children, to improve the security level of the new rural social old-age insurance, and to change the traditional concept of family old-age care. It is expected to offset the negative externalities caused by the government bearing reproductive costs and prevent the rural fertility rebound and population structure deterioration after the relaxation of fertility policy.
【作者單位】： 山東大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院;
【分類號】：D669.6
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本文編號：2071932