本文選題：社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn) + 養(yǎng)老預(yù)期��； 參考：《人口與發(fā)展》2017年04期

【摘要】：生育率低已成我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展的重大隱患,我國(guó)居民的生育意愿也因此而受到了政府相關(guān)部門和社會(huì)各界的特別關(guān)注�；谥袊�(guó)綜合社會(huì)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),利用Logit模型與Poisson模型,將生意意愿分為是否選擇生育和生育子女?dāng)?shù)量?jī)蓚�(gè)方面,實(shí)證分析了社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)、養(yǎng)老預(yù)期與生育意愿的關(guān)系。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):第一,社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)不僅顯著降低了居民選擇生育的概率,而且還降低了居民生育子女的數(shù)量;第二,不同養(yǎng)老預(yù)期對(duì)居民生育意愿影響不同,依靠子女養(yǎng)老與依靠政府養(yǎng)老對(duì)居民生育意愿分別起到了"擠入效應(yīng)"與"擠出效應(yīng)";第三,養(yǎng)老預(yù)期在社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)與生育意愿的關(guān)系中起到了調(diào)節(jié)效應(yīng),依靠子女養(yǎng)老與依靠政府養(yǎng)老分別"緩解"與"強(qiáng)化"社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)對(duì)居民生育意愿的負(fù)向影響,且這種效應(yīng)主要體現(xiàn)在男性與農(nóng)村群體。結(jié)合研究得出的觀點(diǎn)與結(jié)論,探討了本項(xiàng)研究的政策啟示。
[Abstract]:The low fertility rate has become a major hidden danger in the economic and social development of our country. Therefore, the fertility will of the residents in our country has been paid special attention by the relevant government departments and all walks of life. Based on the comprehensive social survey data in China, this paper uses logit model and Poisson model to divide the business intention into two aspects: whether or not to choose to have children and the number of children. The relationship among social old-age insurance, pension expectation and fertility will be analyzed empirically. The study found that: first, social pension insurance not only significantly reduced the probability of residents to choose to have children, but also reduced the number of children. Second, different pension expectations have different effects on residents' fertility willingness. Relying on children to support the aged and relying on the government to provide for the aged has played a "crowding in" effect and "crowding out effect" on the residents' fertility intention. Thirdly, the pension expectation has played a regulatory role in the relationship between social pension insurance and fertility willingness. Depending on children to provide for the aged and depending on the government to provide for the aged, the negative effects of social endowment insurance on the fertility will of residents are alleviated and strengthened respectively, and this effect is mainly reflected in men and rural groups. Combined with the viewpoints and conclusions of the study, the policy implications of this study are discussed.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學(xué)社會(huì)保障研究中心;
【分類號(hào)】：D669.6

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 ;刊中人[J];南方人物周刊;2010年25期

2 葉曉艷　,風(fēng)笑天　;城鄉(xiāng)居民的生育狀況與生育意愿[J];社會(huì);2000年03期

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前5條

1 記者 余茜;促進(jìn)人口長(zhǎng)期均衡發(fā)展[N];重慶政協(xié)報(bào);2014年

2 ;化解生“二孩”之憂還需措施配套[N];無錫日?qǐng)?bào);2014年

3 記者 顧意亮;進(jìn)一步關(guān)心關(guān)愛失獨(dú)家庭群體[N];人民政協(xié)報(bào);2014年

4 本報(bào)記者 雷蕾;“單獨(dú)二孩”政策：影響主要在城市居民[N];人民政協(xié)報(bào);2014年

5 本報(bào)記者 劉宇男;單獨(dú)兩孩政策力爭(zhēng)今年上半年實(shí)施[N];四川日?qǐng)?bào);2014年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前4條

1 俞潔;太陽(yáng)鎮(zhèn)農(nóng)村青年生育狀況與生育意愿調(diào)查分析[D];浙江農(nóng)林大學(xué);2016年

2 梁博強(qiáng);西部農(nóng)村地區(qū)生育意愿與養(yǎng)老的關(guān)系研究[D];華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2008年

3 張長(zhǎng)城;石家莊市已婚育齡婦女生育意愿研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2015年

4 易懷山;從“單獨(dú)二孩”到“普遍二孩”：都市女性白領(lǐng)生育意愿研究[D];華東理工大學(xué);2015年

，

本文編號(hào)：2008591