沈陽(yáng)市老年殘疾人居家養(yǎng)老需求預(yù)測(cè)與實(shí)現(xiàn)方式研究
本文選題:老年殘疾人 + 居家養(yǎng)老 ; 參考:《遼寧大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文
【摘要】:我國(guó)的殘疾人總數(shù)甚多,異質(zhì)性顯著。社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)步、科技的發(fā)展以及人口老齡化的加劇使需要幫助的殘疾人群體比例逐漸增長(zhǎng)。更要注意的是,老年人的殘疾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在全社會(huì)越來(lái)越突出。因老致殘比率逐年增高,老年殘疾人規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,由此衍生出的養(yǎng)老需求值得關(guān)注。如今,國(guó)內(nèi)的老年殘疾人養(yǎng)老方面存在多重困境,居家養(yǎng)老是最能解決這一困境的辦法。但目前普遍化的居家養(yǎng)老服務(wù)滿足不了殘疾人的特殊需求,加之我國(guó)殘疾人認(rèn)定制度嚴(yán)格,老年殘疾人持證率低,大量老年殘疾人被遺棄在制度之外,承受身體和心理雙重折磨的老年人及其家庭生活舉步維艱。老年殘疾人本身及其所在的家庭多數(shù)都面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)困境,研究老年殘疾人的居家養(yǎng)老對(duì)全面深化改革有著重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先以200份有效的社區(qū)調(diào)查問(wèn)卷為實(shí)證分析,運(yùn)用SPSS分析軟件對(duì)沈陽(yáng)市老年殘疾人的居家養(yǎng)老情況進(jìn)行深入了解,描述出目前老年殘疾人居家養(yǎng)老基本情況,并分析出老年殘疾人居家養(yǎng)老服務(wù)現(xiàn)存的問(wèn)題及成因。然后,運(yùn)用灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型理論結(jié)合相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)算出未來(lái)20年沈陽(yáng)市老年殘疾人口總數(shù),并以此為基礎(chǔ)結(jié)合調(diào)研中的居家養(yǎng)老選擇意愿的權(quán)重對(duì)沈陽(yáng)市老年殘疾人居家養(yǎng)老服務(wù)需求規(guī)模進(jìn)行預(yù)算。最后,通過(guò)需求的預(yù)測(cè)以及調(diào)研發(fā)現(xiàn)的居家養(yǎng)老問(wèn)題提出老年殘疾人養(yǎng)老方案,并對(duì)預(yù)期的效果進(jìn)行展望。經(jīng)過(guò)探討,以非營(yíng)利組織為紐帶,構(gòu)建基于適度補(bǔ)貼水平的政府與服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)契約合作的團(tuán)購(gòu)式老年殘疾人居家養(yǎng)老服務(wù)平臺(tái)是可行的。這一方案的設(shè)立將實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)、拉動(dòng)內(nèi)需,化解養(yǎng)老矛盾、提升居家養(yǎng)老服務(wù)水平、實(shí)現(xiàn)養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)質(zhì)的飛躍。
[Abstract]:The total number of disabled people in China is very large, and the heterogeneity is remarkable. With the progress of social economy, the development of science and technology and the aggravation of population aging, the proportion of disabled people in need of help is increasing gradually. More attention should be paid to the elderly disability risk in the whole society more and more prominent. As the disability rate increases year by year and the scale of the elderly disabled is expanding, the demand for the aged should be paid attention to. Nowadays, there are many difficulties in providing for the aged disabled in China, and home pension is the most effective way to solve this dilemma. But at present, the universal home pension service can not meet the special needs of the disabled. In addition, the identification system of the disabled in our country is strict, the rate of holding certificates for the elderly disabled is low, and a large number of elderly persons with disabilities are abandoned outside the system. The elderly and their families, who suffer from both physical and psychological torture, are struggling. Most of the elderly disabled persons themselves and their families are faced with economic difficulties. It is of great practical significance to study the elderly disabled people's home care for the disabled in order to deepen the reform in an all-round way. In this paper, based on 200 valid community questionnaires, this paper uses SPSS software to deeply understand the situation of the elderly disabled in Shenyang, and describes the basic situation of the elderly disabled at home. And analyzes the existing problems and causes of the elderly disabled at home pension service. Then, the total number of elderly disabled population in Shenyang in the next 20 years is calculated by using grey prediction model theory and relevant data. On the basis of this, combined with the weight of the home pension choice in the research, the paper budget the demand scale of the elderly disabled people's home pension service in Shenyang. Finally, through the demand forecast and the family pension problem found by the research, the old-age plan for the elderly disabled persons is put forward, and the expected effect is forecasted. Through the discussion, it is feasible to construct a group purchase family pension service platform for the elderly disabled persons based on the contract cooperation between the government and the service organizations, which is based on the non-profit organization as the link. The establishment of this scheme will realize scale economy, stimulate domestic demand, resolve the contradiction of providing for the aged, improve the level of service for the aged at home, and realize the leap in the quality of the endowment industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號(hào)】:D669.6
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