本文選題：同盟 + 信號博弈��； 參考：《世界經濟與政治》2017年08期

【摘要】：在同盟理論中,不對稱同盟與同盟困境等問題會影響同盟各方的選擇。因此,為了判斷美國及其盟友在面對中國崛起時的反應,作者應用三方不完全信息博弈中的信號博弈模型,分析中國、美國以及美國盟友的三方互動。在美國宣布"重返亞太"后,從美國的角度看,希望借助盟友的力量減緩中國崛起速度。而從美國盟國角度看,也希望借助中美矛盾從中漁利,因此美國盟友會猜測美國的真實動機究竟是堅定支持盟國的強硬行為還是僅僅利用盟國。此外,亞太各國是否采取強硬立場也部分取決于國內的觀眾成本,所以簡單的經濟外交或者外交談判較難軟化某些國家的立場。為了論證博弈模型,作者采用數據統(tǒng)計加以驗證:根據歷年來美國軍售、各國在聯合國分別對中國和美國的支持度、各國的觀眾成本、亞太各國與中國的雙邊關系、中國與各國的經貿往來等數據,構建了面板數據模型,回歸結果能有力驗證所提出的假設。隨后,根據中日漁船相撞事件、安倍時期的釣魚島爭端、中菲黃巖島爭端以及中菲南海仲裁案的案例分析驗證了假設。隨著美國"重返亞太",由于日本、美國等國的觀眾成本較高,在領土問題上若退讓可能冒較大風險,其立場可能會趨于強硬,因此中國在崛起的過程中需要對危機加以管控。
[Abstract]:In alliance theory, asymmetric alliance and alliance dilemma will affect the choice of alliance parties. Therefore, in order to judge the reaction of the United States and its allies in the face of the rise of China, the author applies the signal game model in the tripartite incomplete information game to analyze the tripartite interaction among China, the United States and its allies. After the U.S. announcement of its return to the Asia-Pacific region, from a U.S. perspective, it hopes to use the power of its allies to slow the rise of China. From the point of view of the United States allies, they also hope to benefit from Sino-US conflicts. Therefore, the United States allies will speculate whether the real motive of the United States is to firmly support the hardline actions of the allies or just to use the allies. In addition, whether or not Asia-Pacific countries take a tough stance depends in part on the cost of domestic audiences, so simple economic diplomacy or diplomatic negotiations are less likely to soften some countries' positions. In order to demonstrate the game model, the author uses data statistics to verify it: according to the degree of support given by the United States to China and the United States at the United Nations over the years, the audience cost of each country, and the bilateral relations between Asia-Pacific countries and China, A panel data model is constructed based on the economic and trade data between China and other countries, and the regression results can verify the hypothesis. Subsequently, case studies on the collision between Chinese and Japanese fishing boats, the Diaoyu Islands dispute during Abe's period, the Sino-Philippine Huangyan Island dispute and the South China Sea arbitration case confirmed the hypothesis. As the United States "returns to the Asia-Pacific", with Japan, countries such as the United States having higher audience costs, and taking a bigger risk on territorial issues, their positions may become more hawkish, so China needs to manage the crisis as it rises.
【作者單位】： 清華大學國際關系學系;中國社會科學院美國研究所;
【基金】：國家社會科學基金重大項目“中外關系數據庫建設”(項目編號:15ZDA069);國家社會科學基金2017年度項目“南海爭端中美國的戰(zhàn)略定位與政策手段研究”(項目編號:17BGJ058)的資助
【分類號】：D815
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本文編號：1877972