本文選題：英國脫歐 + “一帶一路”�。� 參考：《國際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索》2017年05期

【摘要】：利用GTAP模型對"英國脫歐"可能會對"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略產(chǎn)生的影響進(jìn)行了模擬分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):"英國脫歐"對"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略既有正面影響也有負(fù)面影響,并且這些影響隨著英國與歐盟之間關(guān)稅水平的上升而擴(kuò)大。正面影響來自于"英國脫歐"會使中國和"一帶一路"沿線非歐盟國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展受益,并增強(qiáng)中國與英國、歐盟及其他"一帶一路"沿線國家的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系;負(fù)面影響則主要是"英國脫歐"會使歐盟和英國的經(jīng)濟(jì)惡化,有損于其參與"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略的能力。因此,中國既要防范英國和歐盟國家經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑給"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略帶來的不確定性風(fēng)險,也要把握住"一帶一路"沿線其它國家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展將從"英國脫歐"中受益的機(jī)會,提升對其貿(mào)易投資合作的規(guī)模和水平,助力其融入"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略。
[Abstract]:GTAP model is used to simulate the possible impact of Brexit on Belt and Road strategy. The study found that Brexit had both positive and negative effects on the "Belt and Road" strategy, and that these effects increased with the rise of tariffs between the UK and the EU. The positive influence will benefit the economic development of China and non-EU countries along the Belt and Road, and strengthen China's trade ties with Britain, EU and other countries along the "Belt and Road". The downside is that Brexit will worsen the EU and UK economies and undermine their ability to participate in the Belt and Road strategy. Therefore, China should not only guard against the uncertain risks brought by the economic downturn of the UK and EU countries to the "Belt and Road" strategy, but also seize the opportunity for the economic development of other countries along the "Belt and Road" to benefit from the "Brexit from the EU". To enhance the scale and level of cooperation in trade and investment, to facilitate its integration into the "Belt and Road" strategy.
【作者單位】： 南京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：江蘇省哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)基金重點委托項目(16WTA003)
【分類號】：D856.1;F125
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本文編號：1871489