本文選題：中期選舉失利　切入點(diǎn)：奧巴馬　出處：《北京外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：總統(tǒng)所屬黨派遭遇中期選舉失利是美國(guó)政治中長(zhǎng)期存在的規(guī)律之一。在1842年至2014年的44次中期選舉中,總統(tǒng)所屬的黨派遭遇了 41次失利。在2010年和2014年,奧巴馬也未能擺脫這一規(guī)律,連續(xù)丟掉了兩次中期選舉。然而,2014年奧巴馬中期選舉失利的獨(dú)特之處在于,民主黨丟掉了參眾兩院。這是共和黨自2006年以來(lái)首次獲得參議院的控制權(quán),同時(shí)進(jìn)一步鞏固了共和黨在眾議院的優(yōu)勢(shì)。本文旨在分析奧巴馬2014年中期選舉失利的原因。關(guān)于總統(tǒng)所屬黨派遭遇中期選舉失利這一現(xiàn)象,學(xué)界已經(jīng)提出許多理論。在比較了這些主流理論后,本文選取了影響中期選舉的三個(gè)主要因素:經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況,總統(tǒng)支持率和投票人數(shù)。通過(guò)在全國(guó)和關(guān)鍵州兩個(gè)層面的分析,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)。雖然奧巴馬在任期間美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有所增長(zhǎng),但美國(guó)人民尤其是底層白人的生活水平并未得到顯著提高。同時(shí),由于奧巴馬的醫(yī)療改革和移民法案等國(guó)內(nèi)政策不得人心,奧巴馬的民意支持率在2014年中期選舉前也跌至谷底,嚴(yán)重影響了民主黨的得票。其次,通過(guò)比較2014年中期選舉與2012年總統(tǒng)大選中投票人數(shù)的不同,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)2014年中期選舉期間,投票人數(shù)大幅減少。而這部分減少的人群主要是年輕人和少數(shù)族裔,也就是民主黨的票倉(cāng)。同時(shí),反對(duì)民主黨的人群(如大部分白人和老年人)的投票增多。這一發(fā)現(xiàn)與負(fù)面投票理論吻合。另外,通過(guò)研究在任民主黨參議員失利的五個(gè)關(guān)鍵州,本文發(fā)現(xiàn),各州失敗的原因也符合在全國(guó)層面分析得出的結(jié)論。奧巴馬的低支持率和對(duì)民主黨不利的投票人數(shù)導(dǎo)致了民主黨參議院在這些州的失敗。同時(shí),某些民主黨參議員的競(jìng)選策略也對(duì)民主黨在南方各州的競(jìng)選十分不利。此外,共和黨在競(jìng)選期間一直將民主黨參議員與奧巴馬聯(lián)系在一起,這一策略也起到了一定的作用。
[Abstract]:The presidential party's midterm defeat is one of the longstanding laws of American politics. In 44 midterm elections between 1842 and 2014, the president's party suffered 41 defeats. In 2010 and 2014, Obama also failed to get rid of this rule, losing two midterm elections in a row. However, the unique feature of Obama's midterm election defeat in 2014 is that, Democrats have lost both houses of Congress. It's the first time that Republicans have taken control of the Senate since 2006. This article aims to analyze the reasons for Obama's defeat in the 2014 midterm election. The academic community has put forward many theories. After comparing these mainstream theories, this paper selects three main factors that influence the mid-term election: economic condition, presidential approval rate and voting number. This article finds that, while the U.S. economy has grown during Obama's tenure, the standard of living of the American people, especially the lower-class whites, has not improved significantly, and because of Obama's domestic policies such as health care reform and immigration legislation, Obama's approval ratings also bottomed out before the 2014 midterm elections, which seriously affected Democrats' votes. Second, by comparing the number of votes cast in the 2014 midterm election and the 2012 presidential election, we found that during the 2014 midterm election, The number of voters has fallen dramatically. And that part of the decline has been mainly young people and minorities, the Democratic Party's ballot box. And at the same time, Opposition to the Democratic Party, such as the majority of whites and the elderly, has increased. This finding coincides with the theory of negative voting. In addition, by studying five key states in which incumbent Democratic senators have lost, this paper finds, The reasons for states' failure are also consistent with national analysis. Obama's low approval ratings and unfavorable votes for Democrats have led to Democratic Senate failures in these states. Some Democratic Senate campaigns are also detrimental to the Democratic campaign in the southern states, and the Republican campaign has played a role in linking Democratic senators to Obama during the campaign.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：D771.2

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