發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-21 05:44

  本文選題：特朗普政府　切入點(diǎn)：《巴黎協(xié)定》　出處：《氣候變化研究進(jìn)展》2017年05期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

【摘要】：2017年6月1日,美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普正式宣布退出《巴黎協(xié)定》,有關(guān)美國(guó)退協(xié)原因、后續(xù)影響和應(yīng)對(duì)策略的研究成為國(guó)際社會(huì)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。本文基于自主構(gòu)建的美國(guó)政策評(píng)估模型,綜合定性定量分析,系統(tǒng)評(píng)估了美國(guó)宣布退出《巴黎協(xié)定》可能造成的全球氣候變化減緩、資金和治理"三大赤字",并據(jù)此提出中國(guó)的應(yīng)對(duì)策略和建議。研究表明,考慮美國(guó)退協(xié)對(duì)后續(xù)政策的影響,美國(guó)2030年的排放將有可能達(dá)57.9(56.0~59.8)億t CO_2-eq,僅相當(dāng)于在2005年的水平上下降12.1%(9.1%~15.0%),相對(duì)自主貢獻(xiàn)目標(biāo)情景將上升16.4(12.5~20.1)億t CO_2-eq,額外增加8.8%~13.4%的全球減排赤字。美國(guó)拒絕繼續(xù)履行資金支持義務(wù)還將使得本不充裕的氣候資金機(jī)制更加雪上加霜,綠色氣候基金(GCF)的籌資缺口將增加20億美元,而長(zhǎng)期氣候資金(LTF)的缺口每年將增加50億美元左右。這就要求歐盟和日本對(duì)GCF的捐助至少上升40%,同時(shí)歐盟及其成員國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期資金支持至少上浮25.2%才能填補(bǔ)上述資金赤字。美國(guó)是全球氣候博弈的重要一方,且美國(guó)退協(xié)的影響已蔓延至全球治理的主要議事平臺(tái),期望中歐、基礎(chǔ)四國(guó)+等模式短期內(nèi)迅速填補(bǔ)美國(guó)退出后全球氣候治理的治理赤字是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的,政治推動(dòng)乏力的情況可能會(huì)在今后一段時(shí)期內(nèi)始終存在。雖然國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)全球氣候治理充滿期待,但中國(guó)應(yīng)有清醒認(rèn)識(shí),全面評(píng)估"接盤(pán)"美國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的成本、效益和可行性,并秉持"國(guó)家利益"優(yōu)先的原則,謀定而后動(dòng)。同時(shí),中國(guó)應(yīng)聚焦國(guó)內(nèi)工作,凝聚應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的戰(zhàn)略共識(shí),做好長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略謀劃,并積極推動(dòng)國(guó)際社會(huì)從合作中尋找出路應(yīng)對(duì)"三大赤字"難題。
[Abstract]:In June 1st 2017, US President Trump formally announced his withdrawal from the Paris Accords. The research on the reasons for American withdrawal, the follow-up effects and coping strategies has become the focus of attention of the international community. Synthesizing qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper systematically assesses the possible global climate change mitigation, capital and governance "three deficits" caused by the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Accords, and puts forward China's coping strategies and suggestions accordingly. Considering the impact of the withdrawal of the United States on the follow-up policy, In 2030, the United States will likely have emissions of 57.9 million tons or 56.0 million tons or 59.8 million tons of CO2-eq. which is only equivalent to a drop of 12.19.1g / 15.0 at the 2005 level, and the relative self-contribution target scenario will rise by 16.4mb 12.520.1 million tons of CO2-eqand an additional 8.813.4percent increase in the global emission reduction deficit. The United States refuses to continue to honour its funds. The obligation to support will also add to the woes of the otherwise inadequate climate finance mechanism, The funding gap for the Green Climate Fund (GCF) will increase by $2 billion. The gap in long-term climate finance will increase by about $5 billion a year. This will require the European Union and Japan to contribute at least 40 percent more to the GCF, while long-term financial support from the EU and its member states will rise by at least 25.2% to fill this amount. The gold deficit. The United States is a major player in the global climate game. Moreover, the impact of the US withdrawal has spread to the main deliberative platforms of global governance. It is unrealistic to expect the CEIBS, the basic four countries and other models to quickly fill the governance deficit of global climate governance after the US withdrawal in the short term. The lack of political impetus is likely to persist for some time to come. While the international community is looking forward to China's leadership of global climate governance, China should be soberly aware of the costs of "picking up" US leadership. Efficiency and feasibility, and adhering to the principle of "national interest" as the priority, China should focus on its domestic work, consolidate its strategic consensus on combating climate change, and make long-term strategic plans. And actively promote international cooperation to find a way to deal with the "three deficits."
【作者單位】： 國(guó)家應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化戰(zhàn)略研究和國(guó)際合作中心;清華大學(xué)現(xiàn)代管理研究中心;
【基金】：中國(guó)清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制基金項(xiàng)目“主要締約方2015協(xié)議下自主貢獻(xiàn)的公平性和力度評(píng)估”(2014094) “中美氣候變化務(wù)實(shí)合作技術(shù)支撐項(xiàng)目”(2013019) 科技部改革發(fā)展專(zhuān)項(xiàng)研發(fā)項(xiàng)目巴黎會(huì)議后應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化急迫重大問(wèn)題研究“INDC及其全球盤(pán)點(diǎn)機(jī)制的影響及對(duì)策研究”
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D871.2;D996.9;P467

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本文編號(hào)：1642510