本文選題：威權(quán)政體政權(quán)存續(xù)　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)治理　出處：《社會(huì)》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文由曹正漢提出的"風(fēng)險(xiǎn)論"出發(fā),以威權(quán)政體政權(quán)存續(xù)的理論視角,探究中國治亂周期與統(tǒng)治者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)治理策略之間的關(guān)系,以及在治亂之間,統(tǒng)治者透過何種機(jī)制調(diào)節(jié)動(dòng)態(tài)平衡以維系政權(quán),又為何調(diào)節(jié)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡機(jī)制在某些時(shí)候能奏效在另一時(shí)點(diǎn)上卻失靈。藉由歷史制度主義的時(shí)序分析,本文提出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)治理的"不可能三角",以解釋治亂周期的波動(dòng),并發(fā)現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制之所以越到朝代后期越難奏效,肇因于開朝初期統(tǒng)治者為防制政變風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所采取的政治吸納策略。這些策略隨著時(shí)間演化及一連串反應(yīng)序列后,破壞了統(tǒng)治者用來防治民變及外患風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的機(jī)制,并進(jìn)一步弱化了國家的基礎(chǔ)權(quán)力,導(dǎo)致國家能力下降,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡機(jī)制失靈,從而陷入統(tǒng)治危機(jī)。
[Abstract]:Based on the "risk theory" put forward by Cao Zhenghan, this paper explores the relationship between the cycle of governance of chaos in China and the governance strategy of rulers' risk from the theoretical perspective of the existence of authoritarian regimes, as well as the relationship between governance of chaos and the period of governance. Through what mechanism the ruler adjusts the dynamic balance to maintain the regime, and why the mechanism of regulating the balance of risks can work at some time but fails at another time, by the time series analysis of historical institutionalism, In this paper, the "impossible triangle" of risk management is proposed to explain the fluctuation of chaos control cycle, and it is found that the mechanism of risk regulation becomes more and more difficult to work until the later period of the dynasty. This was due to the political absorption strategies adopted by rulers to prevent the risk of coup d'茅 tat in the early days of the Kai Dynasty. These strategies evolved over time and a series of reaction sequences, which destroyed the mechanism used by the rulers to prevent and control the people's revolt and the risk of foreign invasion. And further weakened the basic power of the state, resulting in the decline of national capacity, risk balance mechanism failure, thus falling into the governance crisis.
【作者單位】： 浙江大學(xué)社會(huì)學(xué)系;浙江大學(xué)地方政府與社會(huì)治理研究中心;
【分類號(hào)】：D691.2

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