本文關(guān)鍵詞： 老年群體出行 出行次數(shù) 出行方式 出行時(shí)間預(yù)算　出處：《上海交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：根據(jù)《中國(guó)人口老齡化發(fā)展趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)研究報(bào)告》和聯(lián)合國(guó)最新的人口數(shù)據(jù)可知,我國(guó)目前正處于快速進(jìn)入老齡化的階段。隨著年齡增長(zhǎng),人們的自由出行能力減弱,即機(jī)動(dòng)性減弱。然而,我國(guó)社會(huì)中老年人的富裕程度、健康程度和教育程度都比前幾代老年人有明顯提高。當(dāng)代的老年人有更多空余時(shí)間和出行需求,他們比前幾代老年人更加看重自己的生活質(zhì)量,社會(huì)出行活動(dòng)可能增加,但是目前我國(guó)對(duì)老年群體出行特征和相應(yīng)的交通政策研究很少。本文以北京市、浙江省紹興市、遼寧省遼陽(yáng)市居民出行抽樣調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)為例,利用負(fù)二項(xiàng)模型,構(gòu)建了老年群體出行次數(shù)分析模型,以老年人的性別、年齡、收入、文化程度等作為模型的影響變量,對(duì)變量的顯著性和敏感性進(jìn)行分析,研究結(jié)果表明家庭擁有私人小汽車數(shù)、文化程度、家庭自行車數(shù)以及離最近公交車站距離等對(duì)出行次數(shù)影響比較顯著。同時(shí),利用混合logit模型,建立了老年群體出行方式選擇模型,分析了性別、不同年齡段、文化程度、職業(yè)等影響因素對(duì)老年群體出行方式選擇的影響,研究結(jié)果表明男性老年群體比女性老年群體更傾向于選擇私人小汽車和電動(dòng)自行車出行,全職工作者比無(wú)職業(yè)者更傾向于選擇公共交通、私人小汽車以及電動(dòng)自行車方式出行。離最近的公交站步行所需時(shí)間越少,老年群體越傾向于選擇公交車和步行這兩種出行方式。此外,利用PLS結(jié)構(gòu)方程對(duì)比分析了老年群體和非老年群體出行時(shí)間預(yù)算的差異。研究結(jié)果表明非老年人群的出行時(shí)間預(yù)算受經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況影響比較大,經(jīng)濟(jì)條件越好,越希望優(yōu)化出行成本,縮短出行時(shí)間,而老年群體的出行時(shí)間預(yù)算受年齡、性別以及月出行費(fèi)用個(gè)人特征影響很強(qiáng)。
[Abstract]:According to the "Research report on the Prediction of the trend of Aging population in China" and the latest population data from the United Nations, China is now in a stage of rapid aging. With the increase of age, people's ability to travel freely is weakening. That is, mobility is weakened. However, the degree of affluence, health and education of the elderly in our society are significantly higher than those of previous generations. The contemporary elderly have more spare time and travel needs. They value their quality of life more than those of previous generations, and social travel activities may increase. However, at present, there is little research on the travel characteristics and corresponding transport policies of the elderly population in China. This paper focuses on Beijing, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province. By using negative binomial model, this paper constructs an analysis model of travel frequency of elderly population in Liaoyang City, Liaoning Province, taking gender, age, income and education level as the influence variables of the model. The significance and sensitivity of the variables were analyzed. The results showed that the number of private cars, the education level, the number of bicycles and the distance from the nearest bus station had significant effects on the number of trips. Based on the mixed logit model, a travel mode selection model for the elderly group was established, and the influence factors such as gender, different age age, education level, occupation and other factors on the travel mode choice of the elderly group were analyzed. The results showed that older men were more likely to choose private cars and electric bikes than older women, and full-time workers were more likely to opt for public transport than unemployed people. Private cars and electric bikes. The less time it takes to walk from the nearest bus stop, the more likely older people are to choose both. The difference of travel time budget between elderly group and non-elderly group is analyzed by using PLS structural equation. The results show that the travel time budget of non-elderly population is greatly affected by the economic situation, and the better the economic condition is, the better the travel time budget is. The more we want to optimize the travel cost and shorten the travel time, the older group's travel time budget is strongly affected by age, gender and personal characteristics of monthly travel costs.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：D669.6

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本文編號(hào)：1539661