【摘要】：近年來,中國醫(yī)藥行業(yè)進(jìn)行了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,在此情況下,大量的自產(chǎn)藥品、合資藥品加上進(jìn)口藥品,在進(jìn)行著激烈的競爭。面對不斷降低成本,縮短交貨周期,加快資金與庫存的周轉(zhuǎn)等方面的壓力,要求制藥企業(yè)必須具有科學(xué)的預(yù)測與快速響應(yīng)能力�？茖W(xué)的銷售預(yù)測,已經(jīng)成為制藥企業(yè)合理調(diào)配資源,科學(xué)制定合理的銷售與生產(chǎn)計劃的重要依據(jù)。因此,銷售預(yù)測工作逐漸成為制藥企業(yè)提升核心競爭力的一個重要因素。本文通過對CRC醫(yī)藥公司的銷售預(yù)測系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用,對CRC醫(yī)藥公司銷售情況進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,并對預(yù)測結(jié)果和實(shí)際銷售狀況進(jìn)行對比分析,最終對CRC醫(yī)藥公司的銷售預(yù)測提出了有效建議。首先,綜述了預(yù)測的國內(nèi)外發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,并介紹了醫(yī)藥行業(yè)的整體背景與CRC醫(yī)藥公司銷售狀況,以及面臨的一些問題。然后為CRC醫(yī)藥公司引入了銷售預(yù)測系統(tǒng)并規(guī)劃了銷售預(yù)測系統(tǒng)的各個框架,應(yīng)用銷售預(yù)測系統(tǒng)對CRC醫(yī)藥公司進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)收集和初步資料匯總,運(yùn)用時間序列預(yù)測模型和灰色預(yù)測模型對CRC醫(yī)藥公司的產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行銷售預(yù)測,產(chǎn)生銷售預(yù)測結(jié)果,對銷售預(yù)測和實(shí)際銷售數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對比。最后針對CRC醫(yī)藥公司在銷售預(yù)測過程中存在的問題進(jìn)行分析,為CRC醫(yī)藥的銷售預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確率提高給出了有效的建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the industrial structure of China's pharmaceutical industry has been readjusted. In this case, a large number of self-produced drugs, joint venture drugs plus imported drugs are engaged in fierce competition. Facing the pressure of reducing cost, shortening delivery cycle and speeding up the turnover of capital and inventory, pharmaceutical enterprises must have scientific prediction and rapid response ability. Scientific sales forecast has become an important basis for pharmaceutical enterprises to allocate resources reasonably and make reasonable sales and production plans scientifically. Therefore, sales forecasting has gradually become an important factor for pharmaceutical enterprises to enhance their core competitiveness. Through the application of the sales forecasting system of CRC Pharmaceutical Company, this paper forecasts the sales situation of CRC Pharmaceutical Company, compares the forecast results with the actual sales situation, and finally puts forward some effective suggestions for the sales forecast of CRC Pharmaceutical Company. First of all, this paper summarizes the forecast development at home and abroad, and introduces the overall background of the pharmaceutical industry and the sales situation of CRC Pharmaceutical Company, as well as some problems. Then the sales forecasting system is introduced for CRC Pharmaceutical Company and the frameworks of the sales forecasting system are planned. the data collection and preliminary data summary of CRC Pharmaceutical Company are carried out by using the sales forecasting system. The time series prediction model and the grey prediction model are used to forecast the sales of the products of CRC Pharmaceutical Company, and the sales forecast results are produced, and the sales forecast and the actual sales data are compared. Finally, the problems existing in the sales forecasting process of CRC Pharmaceutical Company are analyzed, and some effective suggestions are given to improve the sales forecasting accuracy of CRC Pharmaceutical Company.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F274;F426.72

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