本文選題：雷達(dá)導(dǎo)引頭 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別��； 參考：《中國科學(xué)院大學(xué)(工程管理與信息技術(shù)學(xué)院)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：大部分航天項(xiàng)目需要高額的經(jīng)費(fèi)、研制周期長、存在不特定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的大背景下,國內(nèi)外航天產(chǎn)品市場之間的競爭變得更加激烈。為了保證我國航天產(chǎn)品的可靠性,提高其市場競爭能力和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,必須進(jìn)行全面細(xì)致的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估,制定具體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對措施,減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生。本文在查閱大量文獻(xiàn)和實(shí)踐調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上,對于某型號雷達(dá)導(dǎo)引頭研制項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別和評估方法進(jìn)行了全面深入的分析,完成的主要工作如下：1、結(jié)合項(xiàng)目特點(diǎn)建立了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系,介紹了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理辦公室的成員及各自職責(zé),說明了可靠性管理小組、關(guān)鍵技術(shù)攻關(guān)小組、綜合計(jì)劃進(jìn)度管理小組和重大系統(tǒng)試驗(yàn)管理小組共4個(gè)專項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理小組的具體職能；2、采用德爾菲法進(jìn)行了三輪調(diào)查,確定了項(xiàng)目可能出現(xiàn)的30個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級；采用WBS-RBS法,項(xiàng)目分解為啟動(dòng)、論證、方案等6個(gè)研制階段,WBS分解為設(shè)計(jì)、生產(chǎn)、試驗(yàn)等6個(gè)產(chǎn)品實(shí)現(xiàn)流程；RBS分解為技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等7個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分類,再進(jìn)一步分解為設(shè)計(jì)缺陷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、工藝可行性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等30個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素；構(gòu)建了WBS-RBS矩陣；3、采用層次分析法與模糊綜合評價(jià)法相結(jié)合,建立了項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估模型,定義了因素集與評價(jià)集,設(shè)計(jì)了《風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估調(diào)查表》,建立了判斷矩陣和模糊評判矩陣,計(jì)算了各層判斷矩陣的權(quán)重并進(jìn)行一致性檢驗(yàn),計(jì)算了一級模糊評價(jià)結(jié)果,評估出30個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級并按從大到小排序；4、結(jié)合項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際情況,制定了30個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對措施,對項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,在項(xiàng)目各階段進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別、評估、應(yīng)對和監(jiān)控,取得了較好的應(yīng)用效果,項(xiàng)目按照性能指標(biāo)、計(jì)劃進(jìn)度、經(jīng)費(fèi)預(yù)算和安全性可靠性要求,順利完成階段性研制任務(wù),實(shí)現(xiàn)了“一次投產(chǎn)成功,一次飛行成功”的質(zhì)量目標(biāo)。論文以某型號雷達(dá)導(dǎo)引頭研制項(xiàng)目為例,對項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別和評估方法進(jìn)行了深入的分析和研究,具有實(shí)質(zhì)性的指導(dǎo)意義。也可供其他同類型航天工程研制項(xiàng)目作借鑒和參考。
[Abstract]:Most spaceflight projects need high cost, long development cycle, there is no specific risk, in the background of economic recession, the competition between domestic and foreign aerospace products market becomes more fierce. In order to ensure the reliability of China's aerospace products and improve their market competitiveness and economic benefits, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive and meticulous risk identification and risk assessment, formulate specific risk response measures, and reduce risk occurrence. On the basis of consulting a large number of documents and practical investigation, this paper makes a comprehensive and in-depth analysis on the risk identification and evaluation methods of a certain type of radar seeker development project. The main work accomplished is as follows: 1. According to the characteristics of the project, the risk management system is established. The members of the risk management office and their respective responsibilities are introduced, and the reliability management team and the key technology team are explained. The specific functions of the integrated plan schedule management team and the major systems test management team are four specific risk management teams. Three rounds of investigations were conducted using the Delphi method to determine the 30 risk factors and risk levels that may arise in the project; By using WBS-RBS method, the project is decomposed into six stages of development, such as start-up, demonstration and scheme, and the WBS is decomposed into seven risk categories, such as design, production, test and other six product realization processes, such as technical risk, schedule risk, etc. Furthermore, it is further decomposed into 30 risk factors, such as design defect risk, process feasibility risk, etc. The WBS-RBS matrix is constructed, and the risk assessment model of the project is established by the combination of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The factor set and evaluation set are defined, the risk assessment questionnaire is designed, the judgment matrix and fuzzy evaluation matrix are established, the weight of each judgement matrix is calculated and the consistency test is carried out, and the first-order fuzzy evaluation results are calculated. The risk grade of 30 risk factors was evaluated and ranked from large to small. Combined with the actual situation of the project, the risk response measures of 30 risk factors were formulated, and the dynamic risk management of the project was carried out, and the risk identification was carried out in all stages of the project. Evaluation, response and monitoring have achieved good application results. According to performance indicators, planning schedule, budget and security reliability requirements, the project has successfully completed the stage development task and realized the "successful production at one time." A successful flight "quality target". Taking a certain type of radar seeker as an example, this paper makes a deep analysis and research on the method of project risk identification and evaluation, which has substantial guiding significance. It can also be used as reference for other similar aerospace engineering research and development projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)院大學(xué)(工程管理與信息技術(shù)學(xué)院)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TJ760;F426.5

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相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 陳敬全;科研評價(jià)方法與實(shí)證研究[D];武漢大學(xué);2004年

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本文編號：2005239