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電力客戶分時電價預(yù)測系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計與實現(xiàn)

發(fā)布時間:2018-06-06 05:30

  本文選題:需求側(cè)管理 + 峰谷分時電價; 參考:《電子科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文


【摘要】:開放需求側(cè),實現(xiàn)需求側(cè)管理(DSM),引入需求價格彈性,利用價格手段實現(xiàn)負(fù)荷調(diào)控,是電力市場發(fā)展的必經(jīng)之路,而作為電力需求側(cè)管理的一種重要手段,峰谷分時電價可以實現(xiàn)削峰填谷,提高電力系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性和經(jīng)濟(jì)性,其核心內(nèi)容是合理的制定峰谷電價水平,提供給消費者充足有效的價格信號。電價是改變電力客戶用電方式的有效途徑,也是電力市場一種非常有效的調(diào)節(jié)手段,電力工業(yè)改革與發(fā)展的核心問題之一就是電價的制定。而峰谷分時電價作為電力市場需求側(cè)管理的一種重要手段,已在世界各國的電力工業(yè)市場的經(jīng)濟(jì)管理中發(fā)揮著舉足輕重的作用。本課題所研究的需求響應(yīng)項目是根據(jù)市場的電價機(jī)制,通過進(jìn)行削峰填谷,來緩解系統(tǒng)短期容量缺額,最終達(dá)到改善電力系統(tǒng)日負(fù)荷曲線,提高電能質(zhì)量的目的。除此之外,運用峰谷分時電價不僅可以降低用戶的電能成本,提高電能效益,實現(xiàn)削峰填谷,還可以減少或延緩電網(wǎng)投資,減少電網(wǎng)的備用容量,對于提高電力系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性,提升電網(wǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)運行水平具有極其重要的意義。首先,本文基于價格需求響應(yīng)機(jī)制,分析用戶對電價的響應(yīng),采用需求價格彈性來反映實行峰谷分時電價后用戶的需求,以調(diào)峰為目標(biāo)建立峰谷分時電價的優(yōu)化模型,其中包括構(gòu)造模型的目標(biāo)函數(shù)、需要滿足的約束條件、確定決策變量等,從而建立含各類約束的非線性規(guī)劃模型。其次,采用最優(yōu)化的方法對該模型進(jìn)行分析求解,獲得峰、谷、平優(yōu)化分時電價,將該分時電價信息傳給用戶,用戶根據(jù)電價做出相應(yīng)的用電調(diào)整計劃。最后,在得到峰、谷、平優(yōu)化分時電價后,通過分析在改變優(yōu)化時段的劃分、改變用戶響應(yīng)度的情況下日負(fù)荷曲線的變化,反映上述因素對日負(fù)荷曲線的影響情況,為實際情況下峰谷分時電價的制定提供決策支持。本文設(shè)計的電力客戶分時電價預(yù)測系統(tǒng)系統(tǒng)從功能結(jié)構(gòu)上主要分為三大功能,預(yù)付費售電功能、遠(yuǎn)程下發(fā)功能、數(shù)據(jù)分析功能,十一大模塊,包括數(shù)據(jù)接口模塊、數(shù)據(jù)計算模塊、檔案管理模塊、預(yù)付電費售電模塊、電量計算模塊、電量下發(fā)模塊、票據(jù)打印模塊、數(shù)據(jù)分析模塊、賬務(wù)對賬模塊、報表管理模塊、權(quán)限管理模塊。該系統(tǒng)項目主要是對營銷業(yè)務(wù)系統(tǒng)與各硬件廠商系統(tǒng)提供數(shù)據(jù)的相關(guān)模塊進(jìn)行交互,通過對模塊內(nèi)部以及模塊之間數(shù)據(jù)的交互達(dá)到數(shù)據(jù)持久化的目的,為供電公司經(jīng)營提供幫助。
[Abstract]:Opening demand side, realizing demand side management, introducing demand price elasticity, and realizing load control by price means are the only way to develop electricity market, and as an important means of power demand side management, Peak-valley time-sharing price can realize peak cutting and valley filling, and improve the stability and economy of power system. Its core content is to make the peak and valley price level reasonably, and to provide sufficient and effective price signals to consumers. Electricity price is an effective way to change the mode of electricity consumption, and it is also a very effective means of regulation in electricity market. One of the core problems in the reform and development of power industry is the making of electricity price. As an important means of power market demand side management, peak-valley time-sharing price has played an important role in the economic management of power industry market around the world. According to the electricity price mechanism of the market, the demand response project studied in this paper is to reduce the short term capacity deficit of the system by cutting the peak and filling the valley, and finally to improve the daily load curve and the power quality of the power system. In addition, the use of peak and valley time-sharing price can not only reduce the power cost of users, improve power efficiency, realize peak cutting and filling valley, but also reduce or delay the investment of power network, reduce the reserve capacity of power network, and improve the stability of power system. It is of great significance to improve the economic operation level of power grid. First of all, based on the price demand response mechanism, this paper analyzes the response of users to electricity price, adopts demand price elasticity to reflect the demand of customers after the implementation of peak-valley time-sharing price, and sets up an optimization model of peak-valley time-sharing price with peak-shaving as the goal. It includes constructing the objective function of the model, the constraint conditions to be satisfied, and determining the decision variables, so as to establish the nonlinear programming model with all kinds of constraints. Secondly, the model is analyzed and solved by the method of optimization, and the peak, valley and average time-sharing price are obtained, and the information of the time-sharing price is passed to the user, who makes the corresponding electricity adjustment plan according to the electricity price. Finally, after obtaining the peak, valley and average time-sharing price, the paper analyzes the change of daily load curve under the condition of changing the division of the optimized time period and changing the user's responsivity, which reflects the influence of the above factors on the daily load curve. It provides decision support for the determination of peak-valley time-sharing electricity price in practice. The electric power customer time-sharing price prediction system designed in this paper is mainly divided into three functions from the function structure: prepaid electricity sale function, remote sending function, data analysis function, eleven modules, including data interface module. Data calculation module, file management module, electricity prepaid electricity sale module, electricity quantity calculation module, electricity quantity distribution module, bill printing module, data analysis module, account reconciliation module, report management module, authority management module. The system project is mainly to the marketing business system and the hardware manufacturer system to provide data related modules, through the module and module data interaction to achieve the purpose of data persistence. To provide assistance for the operation of power supply companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2015
【分類號】:TP311.52;F426.61

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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