本文選題：副產(chǎn)煤氣 + 產(chǎn)消預(yù)測��； 參考：《山東大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：副產(chǎn)煤氣作為鋼鐵企業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程中產(chǎn)生的重要二次能源,占鋼鐵企業(yè)總能源消耗量的30%。借助有效手段準確預(yù)測與科學調(diào)度煤氣資源,對降低噸鋼能耗、減少煤氣放散、提高企業(yè)經(jīng)濟效益具有十分重要的意義。本文系統(tǒng)地研究了鋼鐵企業(yè)副產(chǎn)煤氣的產(chǎn)消機理及供需關(guān)系變化規(guī)律,建立了副產(chǎn)煤氣產(chǎn)消預(yù)測模型和優(yōu)化調(diào)度模型,并開發(fā)了副產(chǎn)煤氣系統(tǒng)運行優(yōu)化軟件,為鋼鐵企業(yè)煤氣的合理利用、優(yōu)化分配提供了理論依據(jù)和分析工具。主要研究內(nèi)容如下：首先,分析了鋼鐵企業(yè)副產(chǎn)煤氣系統(tǒng)的基本特性。簡要介紹了鋼鐵企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)工藝流程,明確了其與副產(chǎn)煤氣系統(tǒng)間的關(guān)系,進而將副產(chǎn)煤氣系統(tǒng)劃分為煤氣產(chǎn)出系統(tǒng)、煤氣消耗系統(tǒng)和煤氣輸配系統(tǒng)三部分,并詳細分析了各部分在煤氣系統(tǒng)中的作用。其次,基于時間序列分析和影響因素分析建立了副產(chǎn)煤氣系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)消預(yù)測模型。其中,煤氣產(chǎn)生量預(yù)測在明確副產(chǎn)煤氣產(chǎn)出影響因素的前提下,建立了不同工況下的煤氣流量和熱值預(yù)測模型；煤氣消耗量預(yù)測則基于鋼鐵生產(chǎn)過程主工序單元的消耗特性,建立了耗熱量預(yù)測模型。實例分析表明,該模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果相對誤差較小,可以滿足生產(chǎn)調(diào)度的需要。再次,基于數(shù)學規(guī)劃建立了副產(chǎn)煤氣多周期優(yōu)化調(diào)度模型。本文從全局優(yōu)化的角度出發(fā),以煤氣系統(tǒng)總運行成本最小化為目標,將煤氣放散、柜位波動和熱值波動等帶來的費用作為懲罰成本加入其中,并在考慮不同用戶煤氣需求和工藝要求的前提下,為每類調(diào)度單元制定了相應(yīng)的約束條件,從而建立起了副產(chǎn)煤氣系統(tǒng)的優(yōu)化調(diào)度模型。結(jié)合某鋼廠實際生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)對模型的有效性和優(yōu)化性進行了驗證,調(diào)度結(jié)果表明該模型能節(jié)約運行成本12.5%。最后,設(shè)計開發(fā)了副產(chǎn)煤氣系統(tǒng)運行優(yōu)化軟件。為方便鋼鐵企業(yè)調(diào)度人員對副產(chǎn)煤氣進行及時有效的分配,本文參照前面所建立的預(yù)測模型與調(diào)度模型,完成了運行優(yōu)化軟件的設(shè)計,并從系統(tǒng)設(shè)計、功能實現(xiàn)和運行測試等三個方面進行了介紹。
[Abstract]:As an important secondary energy produced in the production process of iron and steel enterprises, by-product gas accounts for 30 percent of the total energy consumption of iron and steel enterprises. Accurate prediction and scientific regulation of gas resources by effective means are of great significance to reduce energy consumption of tons of steel, reduce gas emission and improve economic benefits of enterprises. In this paper, the mechanism of by-product gas production and consumption and the changing law of supply and demand of by-product gas in iron and steel enterprises are systematically studied, the prediction model and optimal dispatching model of by-product gas production and consumption are established, and the operation optimization software of by-product gas system is developed. It provides theoretical basis and analysis tool for rational utilization and optimal distribution of coal gas in iron and steel enterprises. The main contents are as follows: firstly, the basic characteristics of by-product gas system in iron and steel enterprises are analyzed. This paper briefly introduces the production process of iron and steel enterprises, clarifies the relationship between the by-product gas system and the by-product gas system, and then divides the by-product gas system into three parts: the gas output system, the gas consumption system and the gas transmission and distribution system. The function of each part in the gas system is analyzed in detail. Secondly, based on time series analysis and influence factor analysis, the production and consumption prediction model of by-product gas system is established. On the premise of determining the influencing factors of by-product gas output, the prediction model of gas flow and calorific value under different working conditions is established, while the prediction of gas consumption is based on the consumption characteristics of the main process units in the steel production process. A prediction model of heat consumption is established. The analysis of example shows that the prediction result of this model has less relative error and can meet the demand of production scheduling. Thirdly, the multi-cycle optimal scheduling model of by-product gas is established based on mathematical programming. From the point of view of global optimization, aiming at minimizing the total operating cost of gas system, the cost of gas release, tank fluctuation and calorific value fluctuation are added as penalty cost in this paper. On the premise of considering different users' gas demand and process requirements, the corresponding constraints for each type of dispatching unit are established, and the optimal scheduling model of by-product gas system is established. The validity and optimality of the model are verified by combining the actual production data of a steel plant. The scheduling results show that the model can save the running cost 12.5%. Finally, the operation optimization software of by-product gas system is designed and developed. In order to facilitate the timely and effective distribution of by-product gas to the dispatchers of iron and steel enterprises, this paper, referring to the prediction model and dispatching model established earlier, has completed the design of the running optimization software, and designed the system from the point of view of the system. The function realization and running test are introduced.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.31

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本文編號：1811192