本文選題：商業(yè)智能　切入點(diǎn)：輔助決策分析　出處：《中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：信息技術(shù)的廣泛應(yīng)用,使得煤礦企業(yè)積累了大量的數(shù)據(jù),煤礦企業(yè)已經(jīng)從信息匱乏的時代進(jìn)入到了信息過載的時代。信息化后的煤礦企業(yè)歷史,變成了信息系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)積累的歷史,如何從積累的歷史數(shù)據(jù)中,挖掘出真正有價值的數(shù)據(jù)金礦,成為了煤礦企業(yè)面臨的一大難題。煤礦企業(yè)現(xiàn)有的各類信息系統(tǒng)、財(cái)務(wù)報表不能真實(shí)全面地反映生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營過程中的實(shí)際情況,管理者在日常的經(jīng)營決策中失去了真實(shí)的數(shù)據(jù)支持。本文提出一種基于商業(yè)智能的煤礦企業(yè)輔助決策分析解決方案,運(yùn)用全新的管理思維和先進(jìn)的技術(shù)分析手段,力求從積累的數(shù)據(jù)中提取出有價值的信息和知識,智能地輔助管理人員進(jìn)行決策、分析,幫助管理者擺脫經(jīng)營過程中的盲目猜測行為以及無知狀態(tài),實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和管理水平的雙重提升。本文首先對商業(yè)智能和輔助決策分析進(jìn)行了概念界定,并對商業(yè)智能體系和集成學(xué)習(xí)理論進(jìn)行了闡述。然后從煤礦企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營特點(diǎn)、管理模式現(xiàn)狀、經(jīng)營決策存在問題等方面對當(dāng)前煤礦企業(yè)的經(jīng)營決策現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上,提出了基于商業(yè)智能的煤礦企業(yè)輔助決策分析解決方案。針對煤礦企業(yè)缺乏定量預(yù)測模型,預(yù)算編制的測算過程不合理的情況,引入商業(yè)智能中的數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù)構(gòu)建定量預(yù)測模型。選用了集成學(xué)習(xí)理論中的隨機(jī)森林算法構(gòu)造模型,將采集到的指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)隨機(jī)分成訓(xùn)練集和測試集,使用訓(xùn)練集對模型進(jìn)行訓(xùn)練定型,使用測試集對模型的推廣泛化能力進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),并與另外兩種集成學(xué)習(xí)模型、三種非集成學(xué)習(xí)模型進(jìn)行對比,結(jié)果顯示該模型具有良好的預(yù)測效果。為解決煤礦企業(yè)決策信息不對稱,決策分析不到位的問題,使用商業(yè)智能中的數(shù)據(jù)倉庫和聯(lián)機(jī)分析處理技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)了多維分析系統(tǒng)。將異構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù)源經(jīng)過提取、轉(zhuǎn)換、加載到數(shù)據(jù)倉庫中,將各類信息系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)連接在一起,使信息得到充分共享;OLAP技術(shù)提供了靈活復(fù)雜的查詢操作,使用戶能夠便捷地從多個視角刻畫數(shù)據(jù)特征,深入鉆取細(xì)節(jié)信息,實(shí)現(xiàn)對信息資源的充分利用。最后,根據(jù)實(shí)際的商業(yè)智能信息化項(xiàng)目需求,將商業(yè)智能技術(shù)應(yīng)用到煤礦企業(yè)輔助決策分析系統(tǒng)中,提取出少量核心指標(biāo)建立了輔助決策分析系統(tǒng)的指標(biāo)體系,并研究了前端展現(xiàn)技術(shù),借助圖表的強(qiáng)大信息展現(xiàn)能力,將信息以友好的方式呈現(xiàn)在用戶面前。
[Abstract]:With the wide application of information technology, coal mining enterprises have accumulated a large amount of data. Coal mining enterprises have entered the era of information overload from the era of lack of information. It has become the history of information system data accumulation, how to excavate the real valuable data gold mine from the accumulated historical data, has become a big problem faced by the coal mine enterprise. The financial statements can not reflect the actual situation in the process of production and operation, and the managers have lost the real data support in the daily management decision. This paper presents a solution of auxiliary decision analysis based on business intelligence in coal mining enterprises. By using new management thinking and advanced technical analysis means, we strive to extract valuable information and knowledge from the accumulated data, and intelligently assist managers to make decisions and analysis. To help managers get rid of the blind guesswork and ignorance in the course of operation, and realize the double promotion of economic benefit and management level. Firstly, this paper defines the concept of business intelligence and assistant decision analysis. Then it analyzes the present situation of the coal mine enterprise's management decision from the aspects of the characteristics of production and management, the present situation of the management mode, the existing problems of the management decision, and so on, and expounds the business intelligence system and the integrated learning theory. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward the solution of assistant decision analysis based on business intelligence. In view of the lack of quantitative prediction model, the calculation process of budget making is unreasonable. The quantitative prediction model is constructed by introducing the data mining technology in business intelligence. The random forest algorithm in the integrated learning theory is used to construct the model. The collected index data is randomly divided into training set and test set. The training set is used to train the model, the test set is used to test the generalization ability of the model, and the other two integrated learning models and three non-integrated learning models are compared. The results show that the model has good prediction effect. In order to solve the problem that the decision information of coal mine enterprises is asymmetric and the decision analysis is not in place, Using the data warehouse and OLAP technology in business intelligence, the multi-dimensional analysis system is realized. The heterogeneous data sources are extracted, transformed, loaded into the data warehouse, and all kinds of information system data are connected together. The OLAP technology provides flexible and complex query operation, enables users to depict data features from multiple perspectives, drill down into detail information, and make full use of information resources. According to the demand of the actual business intelligence information project, the business intelligence technology is applied to the auxiliary decision analysis system of the coal mine enterprise, and a few core indexes are extracted to establish the index system of the auxiliary decision analysis system. The front-end display technology is studied, and the information is presented in a friendly way with the help of the powerful information presentation ability of the chart.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TP311.13;F426.21

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