發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-16 13:14

  本文選題：能源消費(fèi)　切入點(diǎn)：規(guī)劃　出處：《西南大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版)》2016年06期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：能源是支撐人類生存、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和現(xiàn)代文明不可缺少的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,對(duì)于能源的需求也在不斷增長(zhǎng),因此準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測(cè)能源消費(fèi)需求對(duì)于制定能源規(guī)劃具有重要的指導(dǎo)意義.基于灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測(cè)模型,以重慶市歷年能源統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,根據(jù)能源消耗總量與能源消耗增長(zhǎng)率、萬(wàn)元GDP能耗、萬(wàn)元財(cái)政收入能耗、居民收入能耗、能源消費(fèi)彈性等因素之間的相關(guān)性,對(duì)重慶"十三五"期間能源的消費(fèi)需求進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),結(jié)果表明:運(yùn)用灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型能夠較為科學(xué)地預(yù)測(cè)重慶未來(lái)能源的實(shí)際需求趨勢(shì),可為政府相關(guān)部門的決策提供參考.
[Abstract]:Energy is the indispensable material foundation to support human survival, economic development and modern civilization. With the development of social economy, the demand for energy is also increasing. Therefore, accurate prediction of energy consumption demand has important guiding significance for the formulation of energy planning. Based on the grey neural network prediction model, taking the energy statistics of Chongqing as a sample, according to the total energy consumption and the growth rate of energy consumption, The correlation between the energy consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP, ten thousand yuan of financial revenue, the energy consumption of residents, the elasticity of energy consumption and so on. The energy consumption demand of Chongqing during the 13th Five-Year Plan period is forecasted. The results show that the grey neural network model can scientifically predict the trend of future energy demand in Chongqing, and can provide a reference for the decision-making of relevant government departments.
【作者單位】： 重慶大學(xué)煤礦災(zāi)害動(dòng)力學(xué)與控制國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;重慶大學(xué)資源及環(huán)境科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51204218) 重慶市院士基金項(xiàng)目(CSTC2013jcyjys90001)
【分類號(hào)】：TP18;F426.2

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