火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理及其智能管理系統(tǒng)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-01-20 10:56
本文關(guān)鍵詞: 火力發(fā)電 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 基建項(xiàng)目 信息系統(tǒng) 出處:《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文 論文類(lèi)型:學(xué)位論文
【摘要】:在全球節(jié)能減排的背景下,電力作為一種最重要的、不可或缺的清潔能源,需求量極速上升。發(fā)電企業(yè)是電力生產(chǎn)的源頭,在整個(gè)電力市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)營(yíng)過(guò)程中占據(jù)了非常重要的位置。然而,火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項(xiàng)目面臨著復(fù)雜的內(nèi)外部環(huán)境以及本身具有投資大、建設(shè)周期長(zhǎng)等特點(diǎn),使其在實(shí)際項(xiàng)目運(yùn)營(yíng)中存在大量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),因此,火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理顯得尤為重要。本文立足于火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建單位,根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中全面管理的思想精髓以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的管理流程,開(kāi)展了發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理及其信息系統(tǒng)的研究,主要包括:在對(duì)基建項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的概念進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,分別從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理目標(biāo)體系、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理流程體系和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法體系這三個(gè)維度,提出火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理三維框架模型;基于電網(wǎng)基建項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的核心目標(biāo),從基建項(xiàng)目生命周期中投資決策、項(xiàng)目準(zhǔn)備、項(xiàng)目建設(shè)、驗(yàn)收投產(chǎn)四個(gè)階段出發(fā),通過(guò)項(xiàng)目工作分解對(duì)項(xiàng)目中存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析,構(gòu)建風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別體系;在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的基礎(chǔ)上,考慮到實(shí)際風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估過(guò)程有效性問(wèn)題和專(zhuān)家權(quán)重確定難題,融入了專(zhuān)家群評(píng)價(jià)的方法和兼顧專(zhuān)家主客觀(guān)權(quán)重信息給專(zhuān)家賦權(quán)的方法,進(jìn)而結(jié)合離差最大化思想和Choquet模糊積分算法,構(gòu)建基于模糊積分-離差最大化的火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型;在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論基礎(chǔ)上,提出了基于全過(guò)程、全部、全方位、全面組織四個(gè)維度的火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項(xiàng)目全面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型,并對(duì)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施進(jìn)行研究;在基于火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的循環(huán)上升管理流程,分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警智能管理系統(tǒng)的需求,對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警智能管理系統(tǒng)平臺(tái)的功能進(jìn)行總體設(shè)計(jì)和詳細(xì)設(shè)計(jì),構(gòu)建了火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)智能管理系統(tǒng)平臺(tái)。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global energy saving and emission reduction, electricity is one of the most important and indispensable clean energy, and the demand is rising rapidly. Power generation enterprises are the source of electricity production. In the whole electricity market operation process occupied a very important position. However thermal power enterprise infrastructure projects are faced with complex internal and external environment and have the characteristics of large investment and long construction cycle. It has a large number of risks in the actual project operation, therefore, the risk management of thermal power enterprise capital construction project is particularly important. This paper is based on the thermal power enterprise infrastructure unit. According to the essence of overall management in risk management and the management process of risk identification, risk assessment and risk warning, the research on risk management and information system of power generation enterprise capital construction project is carried out. Mainly includes: on the basis of the analysis of the concept of risk management of capital construction projects, from the risk management target system, risk management process system and risk management method system of the three dimensions. This paper presents a three-dimensional framework model for risk management of capital construction projects in thermal power plants. Based on the core goal of risk management of power grid infrastructure project, this paper starts from four stages: investment decision, project preparation, project construction, acceptance and commissioning in the life cycle of infrastructure project. The risk identification system is constructed by analyzing the risk in the project by decomposing the work of the project. On the basis of risk identification, considering the effectiveness of the actual risk assessment process and the difficult problem of expert weight determination, the method of expert group evaluation and the method of giving weight to experts with subjective and objective weight information are included. Then, combining the idea of deviation maximization and Choquet fuzzy integral algorithm, the risk assessment model of thermal power enterprise infrastructure project based on fuzzy integral-deviation maximization is constructed. Based on the theory of risk management, the paper puts forward a comprehensive risk early warning model of capital construction projects of thermal power enterprises based on the whole process, all aspects, all directions and overall organization, and studies the measures to deal with the project risks. Based on the risk management of thermal power enterprise infrastructure project risk identification-risk analysis-risk assessment-risk monitoring-risk response-risk identification cycle rising management process. This paper analyzes the demand of risk early warning intelligent management system, designs the function of risk early warning intelligent management system platform, and constructs the risk intelligent management system platform of thermal power enterprise capital construction project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:F270.7;F272.3;F426.61
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條
1 馬永紅;周榮喜;李振光;;基于離差最大化的決策者權(quán)重的確定方法[J];北京化工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2007年02期
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