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  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 火力發(fā)電 風(fēng)險管理 基建項目 信息系統(tǒng)　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在全球節(jié)能減排的背景下,電力作為一種最重要的、不可或缺的清潔能源,需求量極速上升。發(fā)電企業(yè)是電力生產(chǎn)的源頭,在整個電力市場的運營過程中占據(jù)了非常重要的位置。然而,火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項目面臨著復(fù)雜的內(nèi)外部環(huán)境以及本身具有投資大、建設(shè)周期長等特點,使其在實際項目運營中存在大量的風(fēng)險,因此,火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項目風(fēng)險管理顯得尤為重要。本文立足于火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建單位,根據(jù)風(fēng)險管理中全面管理的思想精髓以及風(fēng)險識別-風(fēng)險評估-風(fēng)險預(yù)警的管理流程,開展了發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項目風(fēng)險管理及其信息系統(tǒng)的研究,主要包括：在對基建項目風(fēng)險管理的概念進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,分別從風(fēng)險管理目標(biāo)體系、風(fēng)險管理流程體系和風(fēng)險管理方法體系這三個維度,提出火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項目風(fēng)險管理三維框架模型；基于電網(wǎng)基建項目風(fēng)險管理的核心目標(biāo),從基建項目生命周期中投資決策、項目準(zhǔn)備、項目建設(shè)、驗收投產(chǎn)四個階段出發(fā),通過項目工作分解對項目中存在的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行分析,構(gòu)建風(fēng)險識別體系；在風(fēng)險識別的基礎(chǔ)上,考慮到實際風(fēng)險評估過程有效性問題和專家權(quán)重確定難題,融入了專家群評價的方法和兼顧專家主客觀權(quán)重信息給專家賦權(quán)的方法,進(jìn)而結(jié)合離差最大化思想和Choquet模糊積分算法,構(gòu)建基于模糊積分-離差最大化的火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項目風(fēng)險評估模型；在風(fēng)險管理理論基礎(chǔ)上,提出了基于全過程、全部、全方位、全面組織四個維度的火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項目全面風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型,并對項目風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措施進(jìn)行研究；在基于火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項目風(fēng)險管理中風(fēng)險識別-風(fēng)險分析-風(fēng)險評估-風(fēng)險監(jiān)控-風(fēng)險應(yīng)對-風(fēng)險識別的循環(huán)上升管理流程,分析風(fēng)險預(yù)警智能管理系統(tǒng)的需求,對風(fēng)險預(yù)警智能管理系統(tǒng)平臺的功能進(jìn)行總體設(shè)計和詳細(xì)設(shè)計,構(gòu)建了火力發(fā)電企業(yè)基建項目風(fēng)險智能管理系統(tǒng)平臺。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global energy saving and emission reduction, electricity is one of the most important and indispensable clean energy, and the demand is rising rapidly. Power generation enterprises are the source of electricity production. In the whole electricity market operation process occupied a very important position. However thermal power enterprise infrastructure projects are faced with complex internal and external environment and have the characteristics of large investment and long construction cycle. It has a large number of risks in the actual project operation, therefore, the risk management of thermal power enterprise capital construction project is particularly important. This paper is based on the thermal power enterprise infrastructure unit. According to the essence of overall management in risk management and the management process of risk identification, risk assessment and risk warning, the research on risk management and information system of power generation enterprise capital construction project is carried out. Mainly includes: on the basis of the analysis of the concept of risk management of capital construction projects, from the risk management target system, risk management process system and risk management method system of the three dimensions. This paper presents a three-dimensional framework model for risk management of capital construction projects in thermal power plants. Based on the core goal of risk management of power grid infrastructure project, this paper starts from four stages: investment decision, project preparation, project construction, acceptance and commissioning in the life cycle of infrastructure project. The risk identification system is constructed by analyzing the risk in the project by decomposing the work of the project. On the basis of risk identification, considering the effectiveness of the actual risk assessment process and the difficult problem of expert weight determination, the method of expert group evaluation and the method of giving weight to experts with subjective and objective weight information are included. Then, combining the idea of deviation maximization and Choquet fuzzy integral algorithm, the risk assessment model of thermal power enterprise infrastructure project based on fuzzy integral-deviation maximization is constructed. Based on the theory of risk management, the paper puts forward a comprehensive risk early warning model of capital construction projects of thermal power enterprises based on the whole process, all aspects, all directions and overall organization, and studies the measures to deal with the project risks. Based on the risk management of thermal power enterprise infrastructure project risk identification-risk analysis-risk assessment-risk monitoring-risk response-risk identification cycle rising management process. This paper analyzes the demand of risk early warning intelligent management system, designs the function of risk early warning intelligent management system platform, and constructs the risk intelligent management system platform of thermal power enterprise capital construction project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F270.7;F272.3;F426.61

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本文編號：1447935