本文關(guān)鍵詞：減排約束下中國(guó)天然氣供需安全評(píng)價(jià):2006—2014年　出處：《北京理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版)》2016年02期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 減排約束 天然氣供需安全 評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo) 熵值法 層次分析法(AHP) 均方根(RMS)

【摘要】：為準(zhǔn)確把握中國(guó)天然氣供需安全狀態(tài),以2006—2014年的數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,在模糊隸屬度函數(shù)量化指標(biāo)值的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用層次分析法(AHP)和熵值法確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重,基于線性加權(quán)和函數(shù)計(jì)算均方根進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)。結(jié)果表明:(1)中國(guó)天然氣供需安全指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)"N形"波動(dòng),2006—2007年天然氣供需安全指數(shù)上升。2007—2013年天然氣供需安全指數(shù)年均下降1.797 9。2013年以來(lái)天然氣供需安全指數(shù)開(kāi)始回升,天然氣供需安全壓力有所緩解。(2)天然氣供應(yīng)安全指數(shù)從2006年的17.591 4下降到2013年的0.155 6,峰谷差17.435 9。天然氣需求安全指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)"W形"波動(dòng)。天然氣市場(chǎng)安全指數(shù)相對(duì)穩(wěn)定,2013年以來(lái)略有上升,天然氣市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)逐年下降。(3)天然氣供需安全很大程度上取決于天然氣供應(yīng)是否安全。因此,建議從確保天然氣穩(wěn)定供應(yīng)、提高天然氣使用效率和降低市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面采取措施,維護(hù)天然氣供需安全。
[Abstract]:In order to accurately grasp the safe state of natural gas supply and demand in China, taking the data from 2006 to 2014 as the sample, the fuzzy membership function is used to quantify the index value. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method are used to determine the index weight. A comprehensive evaluation is carried out based on the linear weighted sum function calculation of the root mean square. The result shows that the safety index of natural gas supply and demand in China is "N-shaped". Increase in natural gas supply and demand safety index in 2006-2007. Annual annual decrease in natural gas supply and demand safety index for 2007-2013 1.797. 9. The natural gas supply and demand safety index has begun to pick up since 2013. The natural gas supply safety index decreased from 17.5914 on 2006 to 0.155 6 on 2013. The peak and valley difference is 17.4359.The natural gas demand safety index shows a "W-shape" fluctuation. The natural gas market safety index is relatively stable, and has risen slightly since 2013. The safety of natural gas supply and demand depends to a great extent on the safety of natural gas supply. Therefore, it is suggested to ensure the stable supply of natural gas. Measures should be taken to improve the efficiency of natural gas use and reduce market risks to maintain the safety of natural gas supply and demand.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(武漢)公共管理學(xué)院;安徽大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(武漢)經(jīng)管學(xué)院;
【基金】：安徽省哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目資助(AHSKY2015D51) 安徽大學(xué)博士科研啟動(dòng)經(jīng)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目(J01001319) 教育部人文社科基金資助項(xiàng)目(14YJC630061)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.22
【正文快照】： 當(dāng)前, 中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入平穩(wěn)緩慢增長(zhǎng)的新常態(tài),傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)對(duì)能源的需求量下降,2014 年中國(guó)煤炭消費(fèi)總量同比下降了2.9%,15 年來(lái)首次出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。與此同時(shí),受?chē)?guó)家減排約束政策的影響,天然氣等清潔能源的消費(fèi)量快速上升。 張s突蒲，

本文編號(hào)：1381310