本文關(guān)鍵詞：“綠電”替代“火電”的潛力評估與進程分析　出處：《可再生能源》2016年08期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 綠電 創(chuàng)新擴散 替代規(guī)模 替代進程

【摘要】：文章運用創(chuàng)新擴散模型,對我國"綠電"與"火電"未來各時點發(fā)電量進行了預(yù)測評估,并在此基礎(chǔ)上對替代規(guī)模與替代進程進行了耦合分析。結(jié)果表明:2020~2050年,我國電力結(jié)構(gòu)仍將以"火電"為主,"綠電"發(fā)電量不斷增加,占比上呈"M"型;"綠電"的發(fā)展主要依賴于水電與核電,水電與核電的開發(fā)潛力較大,未來5 a內(nèi)將得到大力開發(fā);目前風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)已處于產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展階段,風(fēng)電市場基本趨于成熟,風(fēng)力發(fā)電量也大體保持穩(wěn)定。
[Abstract]:Based on the innovation diffusion model, this paper forecasts and evaluates the future power generation of "green power" and "thermal power" in China. On this basis, the coupling analysis of substitution scale and process is carried out. The results show that the power structure of China will still be dominated by thermal power from 20 to 2050, and the power generation of "green electricity" will continue to increase. The proportion is "M" type; The development of "green electricity" mainly depends on hydropower and nuclear power, the development potential of hydropower and nuclear power is great, and will be vigorously developed in the next five years. At present, wind power industry has been in the stage of industrial development, wind power market is basically mature, wind power generation is generally stable.
【作者單位】： 中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(71373261)
【分類號】：F426.61
【正文快照】： 0引言電力是我國最重要的二次能源,其清潔化發(fā)展程度對實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟、能源和環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展意義重大。2014年,我國一次能源消費量為42.6億t標煤,其中,煤炭占66.0%,石油占17.1%,天然氣占5.7%,來自于核電、水電、風(fēng)電以及太陽能發(fā)電的“綠電”占11.2%。中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展進入了轉(zhuǎn)型升級的關(guān)，

本文編號：1359026