銅是贊比亞經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱。從20世紀(jì)20年代采礦活動(dòng)開始以來,銅出口在該國出口和外國收入的占比最大。然而,大多數(shù)人認(rèn)為銅對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方案的貢獻(xiàn)不夠,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于國民的期望。他們將當(dāng)前的失敗歸因于銅價(jià)波動(dòng)、國際市場(chǎng)力量、所有權(quán)、政府無能以及新自由主義的后果。鑒于建立和經(jīng)營銅礦所需的大量費(fèi)用,該國在很大程度上依賴外國資本。在贊比亞開采的銅礦中,很大一部分是在一個(gè)未經(jīng)國內(nèi)企業(yè)加工后出售,這剝奪了該國的額外收入。本研究利用Persaran和Shin（1999）提出的協(xié)整邊界方法,研究了贊比亞銅出口價(jià)格對(duì)贊比亞經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響。據(jù)說贊比亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)依賴于銅礦開采,經(jīng)濟(jì)人士分析假設(shè)贊比亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長依賴于外部國際銅價(jià)。這有點(diǎn)問題,因?yàn)樗樟藳Q策者和政府的責(zé)任,以產(chǎn)生可持續(xù)增長。為了驗(yàn)證這一假設(shè)的有效性,本研究估計(jì)了一個(gè)以銅價(jià)為關(guān)注變量的自回歸分布滯后（ARDL）模型。估算結(jié)果表明,從長期來看,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長取決于實(shí)物資本、匯率、通貨膨脹、原油價(jià)格、政府支出和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率;國際銅價(jià)僅在短期內(nèi)影響增長。因此,只要有適當(dāng)?shù)囊?guī)劃和戰(zhàn)略政策干預(yù),贊比亞即使在國際銅價(jià)下跌的情況下,仍然能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)更高的可持續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。 

【文章來源】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)江西省

【文章頁數(shù)】：40 頁

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
摘要
ABSTRACT
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
    1.1 Background Information
        1.1.1 Theoretical background
    1.2 Statement of the problem
    1.3 Objectives of the study
        1.3.1.Specific Objectives
    1.4 Significance of the study
    1.5 Organization of the study
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.1 Theoretical literature
        2.1.1 The Solow-swan model
    2.2 Empirical literature
        2.2.1 The impact of copper export prices on economic growth
        2.2.2 Macroeconomic determinants of economic growth
CHAPTER THREE OVERVIEW OF THE ZAMBIAN ECONOMY
    3.1 Economic prospects
    3.2 Zambia’s Gross domestic product
    3.3 Economic growth
    3.4 The Role of Copper Mining
CHAPTER FOUR METHODOLOGY
    4.1 Theoretical framework
    4.2 Data
    4.3 Models and the Estimation techniques used
        4.3.1 Unit-root tests
        4.3.2 The Autoregressive distributive lags model（ARDL）
        4.3.3 Bounds test
    4.4 Research hypotheses
CHAPTER FIVE ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT
    5.0 Descriptive statistics
    5.1 Unit root test
    5.2 ARDL model estimations
    5.3 Diagnostic tests
    5.4 Bounds test
    5.5 The cointegrating equation
    5.6 Discussion of results
        5.6.1 Dynamics of economic growth
        5.6.2 What Determines economic growth
    5.7 Conclusion
CHAPTER SIX POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Policy implications
    6.1 Economic growth policies
    6.2 The impact of copper prices
    6.3 Conclusion
REFERENCES



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