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Mathematical Modeling of Ebola Virus Epidemic

發(fā)布時間:2021-01-11 08:08
  盡管各國政府和世界衛(wèi)生組織(WHO)在根除非洲埃博拉病毒等相關(guān)疾。‥VD)方面做出來了極大努力,但許多人仍然沒有意識到一些潛在的埃博拉病毒疾病的傳播方式。一些研究人員也忽視了這些潛在的EVD傳播模式,以及EVD與其他疾病的共同感染,恢復(fù)后EVD的復(fù)發(fā)以及已經(jīng)恢復(fù)的埃博拉病毒感染者對埃博拉病毒的再感染。在本論文中,我們提出了一個新的但現(xiàn)實的埃博拉病毒相關(guān)疾病(EVD)傳播動態(tài)模型。我們首先給出論文的背景介紹,第一章介紹了埃博拉病毒的生態(tài)學(xué)和傳播,埃博拉病毒病的復(fù)發(fā)和再感染,埃博拉病毒和瘧疾的共感染,埃博拉病毒的生命周期,埃博拉病毒物種,預(yù)防EVD,治療EVD,埃博拉疫苗,相關(guān)文獻綜述,論文目標(biāo)以及論文的組成。第二章主要研究EVD的各種傳播模式,并結(jié)合恢復(fù)后可能再次感染EVD,長久和暫時恢復(fù)的埃博拉病毒受害者。我們計算出了 R0,討論了無埃博拉病毒和地方病平衡點的穩(wěn)定性和存在性。如果R0<1,無埃博拉病毒平衡點是漸近穩(wěn)定的,但如果R0>1則它是不穩(wěn)定。利用Lasalle的不變原理,在模型中討論了無病和地方病平衡... 

【文章來源】:華中師范大學(xué)湖北省 211工程院校 教育部直屬院校

【文章頁數(shù)】:134 頁

【學(xué)位級別】:博士

【文章目錄】:
中文摘要
Abstract
Acknowledgement
Dedication
List of Abbreviation
Chapter 1 Introduction
    1.1 Preface
    1.2 Ebola virus Ecology and Modes of Transmission
    1.3 Recurrence,Relapse and Reinfection ofEbola Virus Disease
    1.4 Ebola and Malaria Co-infections
    1.5 Life Cycle of Ebola Virus
    1.6 Ebola Virus Species
    1.7 Prevention and Treatment of Ebola Virus Disease
        1.7.1 Prevention of Ebola Virus Disease
        1.7.2 Treatment of Ebola Virus Disease
    1.8 Ebola Vaccine
    1.9 Review of Related Literature
    1.10 Objectives of the Thesis
    1.11 Organization of the Thesis
Chapter 2 An Epidemiological model of Ebola virus disease transmissionwith reinfection and Optimal Control
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 Model Description
        2.2.1 Well-Posedness of the Model
    2.3 Model Analysis
        2.3.1 Equilibria
        2.3.2 Ebola- Free Equilibrium
        2.3.3 Basic Reproduction Number
        2.3.4 Existence of Endemic Equilibrium
    2.4 Global Stability
        2.4.1 Global Stability of the Ebola-free equilibrium
        2.4.2 Global Stability of endemic equilibrium
    2.5 Sensitivity Analysis
    2.6 Epidemiological Model of Ebola VirusDisease with Optimal control
        2.6.1 Existence of an optimal control
        2.6.2 Characterization of the optimal controls
        2.6.3 The Optimality System
    2.7 Numerical Simulations
1)and treatment (u2)control only">        2.7.1 Prevention(u1)and treatment (u2)control only
1)and(u3)vaccination control only">        2.7.2 Prevention(u1)and(u3)vaccination control only
2)and vaccination(u3)only">        2.7.3 Treatment(u2)and vaccination(u3)only
1,u2,u3)">        2.7.4 Prevention,treatment and vaccination(u1,u2,u3
    2.8 Discussion and Conclusion
Chapter 3 An SITR theoretical model of Ebola transmission dynamics withrecurrence, relapse and reinfection
    3.1 Introduction
    3.2 Model Description
    3.3 Model Analysis
        3.3.1 Basic Properties
        3.3.2 Ebola-Free Equilibrium and Basic Reproduction Number
        3.3.3 Local Stability of Ebola-Free Equilibrium
        3.3.4 Global Stability of Ebola-Free Equilibrium
        3.3.5 Existence of Endemic Equilibrium
        3.3.6 Local Stability of Endemic Equilibrium andBifurcation Analysis
        3.3.7 Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductionnumber
    3.4 Discussion and Conclusions
Chapter 4 Modeling and analysis of Ebola and Malaria co-infections withoptimal control
    4.1 Introduction
    4.2 Model Description
        4.2.1 Model Asumptions
        4.2.2 Positivity solutions of the model
        4.2.3 Boundedness of solutions
    4.3 Ebola only model
        4.3.1 Ebola-free equilibrium and basic reproduction number
        4.3.2 Local stability analysis of Ebola-free equilibrium
        4.3.3 Existence of Endemic equilibrium
    4.4 Malaria only model
        4.4.1 Malaria-free equilibrium and basic reproduction number
        4.4.2 Local Stability of Malaria-free equilibrium
        4.4.3 Existence of Endemic equilibrium (EE)
    4.5 Analysis of Ebola and Malaria co-infection model
em">        4.5.1 Analysis of the basic reproduction number Rem
  •         4.5.2 Existence of backward bifurcation
            4.5.3 Sensitivity Analysis of the basic reproductionnumber
        4.6 Discussion and Conclusions
    Chapter 5 Conclusion, Future work and Recommendations
        5.1 Conclusion
        5.2 Future work
        5.3 Recommendations
    References
    List of Publications



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