降水、溫度和農(nóng)業(yè)氣象干旱時(shí)空變化分析在區(qū)域水資源可持續(xù)管理方面發(fā)揮重要作用。在本研究中,運(yùn)用熵理論,氣候趨勢(shì)統(tǒng)計(jì),干旱指數(shù)和預(yù)測(cè)等方法來(lái)分析時(shí)空氣象變化與干旱異常行為,目的是為特定地區(qū)的研究人員和決策者提供全面的參考。該研究以中國(guó)黑龍江省松花江流域11個(gè)氣象站為研究對(duì)象。第一,通過(guò)熵理論分析了降水的時(shí)空變化規(guī)律。利用樣本熵測(cè)度各氣象站月度,季度,年度,十年的雨天數(shù)量和降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù)。利用強(qiáng)度熵計(jì)算數(shù)據(jù)的個(gè)體差異,利用分配熵來(lái)計(jì)算年代際變化。樣本紊亂指數(shù)的結(jié)果表明,2月份（平均1.09,最大1.26和最小0.80）和7月份（平均1.10,最大1.20和最小0.98）的降水貢獻(xiàn)明顯更高。同樣地,十年降雨變異性的平均分配紊亂指數(shù)比1964-1973和1973-2003年分別增長(zhǎng)了 0.023和0.053。第二,通過(guò)使用Spearmen’s Rho和Mann-Kendall趨勢(shì)測(cè)試,以5%的檢驗(yàn)水準(zhǔn)研究其歷史降水和溫度數(shù)據(jù)系列的長(zhǎng)期氣候趨勢(shì)（月/季節(jié)和年度）。冬季（11月和12月）期間,月降水量分析呈現(xiàn)顯著的（p<0.05）增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。同樣地,流域的季節(jié)和全年氣溫的結(jié)果顯示,在過(guò)去49年（196... 

【文章來(lái)源】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)黑龍江省211工程院校

【文章頁(yè)數(shù)】：137 頁(yè)

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士

【文章目錄】：
摘要
Abstract
1 Introduction
    1.1 Background and significance of climatic change and drought Research
        1.1.1 Background and significance of climatic change research
        1.1.2 Background and significance of drought research
    1.2 Purpose and Significance of research
    1.3 Drought
        1.3.1 Drought types
        1.3.2 Drought mitigation
        1.3.3 Drought characteristics
    1.4 Climate change
        1.4.1 Climate
        1.4.2 Climate change impact on water resources and agriculture production
    1.5 Summarization of domestic and foreign research
        1.5.1 Climatic variables trends
        1.5.2 Agro-meteorological drought scenario
        1.5.3 Agro-meteorological drought indices
        1.5.4 Future drought projection
    1.6 Research objectives and innovative points
        1.6.1 Research objectives
        1.6.2 Innovative points of research
    Framework of this Study
2 Natural conditions and methodology
    2.1 Natural geographical conditions and River system
    2.2 Natural fanning conditions in the Songhua River basin
        2.2.1 Farmland changes in the River Basin
    2.3 Research Area and Datasets
    2.4 Mathematical approaches
        2.4.1 Entropy theories
        2.4.2 Various drought indices approach for drought prediction
        2.4.3 Statistical theories
3 Precipitation variability assessment using entropy theories
    3.1 Methods
        3.1.1 Entropy as extent of temporal precipitation apportionment
        3.1.2 Sample Entropy
        3.1.3 Intensity Entropy
        3.1.4 Apportionment Entropy
        3.1.5 Decadal Apportionment Entropy
    3.2 Results and Discussion
        3.2.1 Variability of Precipitation (Annual, Seasonal & Monthly Basis)
        3.2.2 Precipitation Variability on Spatial and Temporal Scale
        3.2.3 Rainy Days Variability
        3.2.4 Decadal Variability
    3.3 Summary
4 Assessment of historical climatic trends by using the precipitation and temperature dataseries in the Songhua River basin of China
    4.1 Methods
        4.1.1 Mann-Kendall trend test
        4.1.2 Spearman's Rho test
        4.1.3 Sen's Slope Estimator
    4.2 Result and Analysis
        4.2.1 Statistical analysis of annual precipitation and temperature
        4.2.2 Monthly analysis of precipitation and temperature
        4.2.3 Annual and seasonal analysis of temperature and precipitation
        4.2.4 Long term persistence of seasonal precipitation and temperature data series
        4.2.5 Long term pattern of annual precipitation and temperature data series
    4.3 Summary
5 Detecting the persistence of historical spatiotemporal variations of agro meteorologicaldrying trends by using numerous drought indices
    5.1 Methods
        5.1.1 Drought Identifications
        5.1.2 Drought events statistics
        5.1.3 Standardized Precipitation Index
        5.1.4 Reconnaissance Drought Index
        5.1.5 Standardized Precipitation Evaporative index
        5.1.6 Effective Drought Index
    5.2 Result and Analysis
        5.2.1 Meteorological drought analysis
        5.2.2 Agro-meteorological drought analysis
    5.3 Summary
6 Projected changes of future extreme drought events under various drought indices by usingCMIP3 approach
    6.1 Future Climate Scenarios
    6.2 Methodology
    6.3 Results and Analysis
        6.3.1 Projected changes in meteorological variables
        6.3.2 3 & 6 Month drought Scenario
        6.3.3 9 & 12 Month drought Scenario
        6.3.4 SPI, RDI and EDI indices drought comparison scenario
        6.3.5 Drought Frequency Analysis
    6.4 Summary
7 Projected changes of future drought events under numerous drought indices by usingCMIP5 approach
    7.1 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5) - High emission
    7.2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) -Intermediate emission
    7.3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.5) - Low emission
    7.4 Methodology
        7.4.1 Generating future climatic data
        7.4.2 Drought Identification Indices
    7.5 Results and Discussion
        7.5.1 RCP2.6
        7.5.2 RCP4.5
        7.5.3 RCP8.5
    7.6 Summary
8 Conclusion
Acknowledgement
References
Papers published in the periods of PhD education



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