發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-25 11:52

【摘要】：應(yīng)急決策結(jié)果關(guān)系重大,少數(shù)意見(jiàn)十分重要,解決沖突型應(yīng)急決策問(wèn)題的關(guān)鍵是在有限時(shí)間內(nèi),做出被大多數(shù)決策成員認(rèn)可的相對(duì)可靠的決策結(jié)果,因此決策質(zhì)量和時(shí)效性必須同時(shí)兼顧.本文試圖建立基于保護(hù)少數(shù)意見(jiàn)的沖突型大群體應(yīng)急決策模型,用于協(xié)調(diào)處理應(yīng)急決策中可能存在的少數(shù)意見(jiàn),以保證決策質(zhì)量.利用客觀修正系數(shù)對(duì)決策過(guò)程進(jìn)行模擬,給出群體沖突水平閾值的定量選取方法.提出綜合修正系數(shù)的思想,以應(yīng)對(duì)成員不愿調(diào)整自身偏好的情形,保證決策時(shí)效性.構(gòu)建了基于保護(hù)少數(shù)意見(jiàn)的偏好沖突消解模型,充分考慮少數(shù)意見(jiàn),并對(duì)其進(jìn)行合理處理.案例分析驗(yàn)證了所提方法的可行性;對(duì)比分析顯示了所提方法處理沖突型大群體應(yīng)急決策問(wèn)題的優(yōu)勢(shì);構(gòu)造了足夠數(shù)量的決策算例,模擬各種不同復(fù)雜程度、緊急程度下的決策過(guò)程,分析了所提方法的合理性和適用范圍.
[Abstract]:The result of emergency decision is very important and the minority opinion is very important. The key to solve the problem of conflict type emergency decision is to make a relatively reliable decision result approved by the majority of decision making members in a limited time. Therefore, the quality and timeliness of the decision must be taken into account at the same time. This paper attempts to establish an emergency decision-making model for large conflict groups based on protecting minority opinions, which is used to coordinate and deal with the minority opinions that may exist in emergency decision-making, so as to ensure the quality of decision-making. The objective correction coefficient is used to simulate the decision-making process and the quantitative selection method of threshold value of group conflict level is given. The idea of comprehensive correction coefficient is put forward to deal with the situation that members are unwilling to adjust their preferences to ensure the timeliness of decision making. A preference conflict resolution model based on minority protection is constructed, which takes minority views into full consideration and deals with them reasonably. The case analysis verifies the feasibility of the proposed method, and the comparative analysis shows the advantages of the proposed method in dealing with the problem of emergency decision-making of large conflict groups. A sufficient number of decision examples are constructed to simulate the decision-making process with different complexity and emergency. The rationality and application range of the proposed method are analyzed.
【作者單位】： 中南大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(71671189;71431006;71471178) 中南大學(xué)創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2015CX010)
【分類號(hào)】：O225

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前6條

1 華國(guó)偉;余樂(lè)安;汪壽陽(yáng);;非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件特征刻畫與應(yīng)急決策研究[J];電子科技大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社科版);2011年02期

2 丁繼勇;王卓甫;郭光祥;;基于貝葉斯和動(dòng)態(tài)博弈分析的城市暴雨內(nèi)澇應(yīng)急決策[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2012年23期

3 吳鶴齡;沖突消解策略及其對(duì)推理效率的影響[J];北京理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);1995年05期

4 萬(wàn)樹(shù)平;;一種具有區(qū)間數(shù)信息的多屬性大群體決策方法[J];模式識(shí)別與人工智能;2011年03期

5 徐選華;李芳;;一種面向?qū)傩詺埲逼眯в镁仃嚨拇笕后w決策方法[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2010年21期

6 徐選華;王敏賽;陳曉紅;;偏好沖突優(yōu)化的多屬性多階段大群體決策方法[J];系統(tǒng)工程學(xué)報(bào);2014年01期

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前1條

1 唐攀;王紅衛(wèi);王哲;劉丹;;基于任務(wù)分解和分配策略的應(yīng)急決策模型研究[A];經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化與系統(tǒng)工程——中國(guó)系統(tǒng)工程學(xué)會(huì)第16屆學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)論文集[C];2010年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 萬(wàn)奇鋒;應(yīng)急決策中的復(fù)雜大群體沖突測(cè)度及沖突協(xié)調(diào)研究[D];中南大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號(hào)：2355999