南海海嘯數(shù)值模擬研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-24 10:57
【摘要】：海嘯是一種具有突發(fā)性和強(qiáng)大破壞力的海洋災(zāi)害,本世紀(jì)初發(fā)生的2004印度洋海嘯和2011日本海嘯產(chǎn)生的巨大災(zāi)害引起了全球范圍的高度重視。海嘯一般是由海底地震、滑坡,或火山噴發(fā)等引起海底劇烈震動(dòng)和變形,進(jìn)而引發(fā)海水表面的巨大擾動(dòng)形成海嘯波向四周傳播。海嘯波在抵達(dá)近岸時(shí),由于水深變淺,波高迅速增加,對(duì)海岸帶產(chǎn)生劇烈的破壞作用。本文旨在利用可靠的數(shù)值模型,模擬研究海嘯生成、傳播和對(duì)近岸的影響,分析南海潛在海嘯源對(duì)周邊地區(qū)的影響,研究南海海嘯數(shù)值預(yù)警方法和針對(duì)馬尼拉海溝地震海嘯的快速預(yù)警技術(shù),為南海海嘯預(yù)警與防災(zāi)減災(zāi)提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。首先,利用Okada彈性半空間位錯(cuò)理論模型,研究了走向角、傾角、滑移角、震源深度,和滑移量等震源參數(shù)對(duì)海底地形的抬升和沉降的影響規(guī)律。針對(duì)真實(shí)地震產(chǎn)生的復(fù)雜海底變形,采用多個(gè)單元板塊線性疊加的方法模擬地形的演變或給出每個(gè)板塊運(yùn)動(dòng)時(shí)間,可以用來(lái)描述真實(shí)的地震引發(fā)的海底變形的復(fù)雜變化過(guò)程。針對(duì)本文運(yùn)用的基于非線性淺水方程模擬海嘯波傳播的數(shù)值模型(GeoClaw),詳細(xì)介紹了控制方程和數(shù)值方法。從一維非線性淺水方程出發(fā),結(jié)合雙曲守恒律和線性化理論,在有限體積法的基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)造離散格式,對(duì)方程進(jìn)行數(shù)值求解。自適應(yīng)網(wǎng)格技術(shù)是該模型的一個(gè)特色,可以根據(jù)海嘯波波高進(jìn)行追蹤判斷是否對(duì)網(wǎng)格進(jìn)行加密。對(duì)于海嘯越洋傳播這樣的大尺度計(jì)算問題,該方法可以有效提高計(jì)算效率,較快得到模擬結(jié)果。基于建立在非線性淺水波方程基礎(chǔ)上的數(shù)值模型,分別對(duì)潰壩問題、柱面波的傳播、液體的三維晃蕩問題、高斯波對(duì)岸坡的影響等基本算例進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證計(jì)算。通過(guò)與解析解、實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果的比較,驗(yàn)證了模型的計(jì)算精度;通過(guò)不同類型網(wǎng)格的數(shù)值計(jì)算結(jié)果比較,驗(yàn)證了自適應(yīng)網(wǎng)格的有效性。結(jié)果表明該模型可以有效地模擬淺水波的傳播;在保證計(jì)算精度的前提下,自適應(yīng)網(wǎng)格技術(shù)可在一定程度上提高計(jì)算效率。以2004印度洋海嘯和2011日本地震海嘯為例,對(duì)基于有限體積法的二維非線性淺水方程數(shù)值模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證計(jì)算。通過(guò)與浮標(biāo)實(shí)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的比較,表明該模型可以較為準(zhǔn)確地模擬真實(shí)海嘯。根據(jù)數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果分析了這兩次海嘯的傳播特征。通過(guò)對(duì)不同震源的模擬,比較不同精度的震源對(duì)數(shù)值結(jié)果的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)高精度震源參數(shù)可以得到更好的結(jié)果。進(jìn)一步利用更精細(xì)的網(wǎng)格,研究日本大海嘯對(duì)仙臺(tái)地區(qū)的淹沒影響,數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果與實(shí)測(cè)結(jié)果吻合較好。數(shù)值結(jié)果表明,由于海嘯特殊的傳播路徑和東海大陸架較淺的水深,2011日本海嘯對(duì)中國(guó)沿海的影響不大,近岸最大波高僅有0.5m。根據(jù)馬尼拉海溝的斷層分布特征,總結(jié)了一般震級(jí)的震源參數(shù)特征和特大地震的震源參數(shù)特征。利用數(shù)值模型模擬研究八級(jí)地震時(shí),不同板塊誘發(fā)海嘯的傳播特征和影響范圍,并分析對(duì)海南島、臺(tái)灣島和伶仃洋等局部區(qū)域的影響。進(jìn)一步針對(duì)馬尼拉海溝可能發(fā)生的mw=9.3級(jí)特大地震,模擬計(jì)算了南海特大地震海嘯的傳播特征和影響范圍,以及對(duì)海南島、臺(tái)灣島和伶仃洋等產(chǎn)生的影響,并分析了海嘯產(chǎn)生的流場(chǎng)特征。利用boussinesq模型,計(jì)算了南海mw=8.0級(jí)和mw=9.3級(jí)海嘯的傳播,通過(guò)比較考慮色散和不考慮色散的計(jì)算結(jié)果,發(fā)現(xiàn)南海潛在海嘯的色散效應(yīng)并不明顯。針對(duì)南海馬尼拉海溝潛在震源區(qū)可能發(fā)生的海嘯,模擬計(jì)算了單元板塊發(fā)生單位滑動(dòng)所引發(fā)的海嘯,并構(gòu)建了相應(yīng)的海嘯源數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù);建立了一套基于多個(gè)浮標(biāo)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)和最小二乘法的海嘯反問題預(yù)警方法,并應(yīng)用于南海馬尼拉海溝潛在震源的海嘯預(yù)警。通過(guò)與正問題模擬結(jié)果的比較,驗(yàn)證了該預(yù)警方法的有效性。本文發(fā)展的基于多浮標(biāo)反演方法在預(yù)警震級(jí)較高、范圍較大的南海馬尼拉海溝地震海嘯比單浮標(biāo)方法有更高的可靠性。鑒于浮標(biāo)的成本,利用數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果給出了優(yōu)先布置的浮標(biāo)位置。結(jié)合馬尼拉海溝潛在震源斷裂帶分布的基本特征,建立一種針對(duì)馬尼拉海溝突發(fā)海嘯進(jìn)行快速預(yù)警的方法,可以在5 min給出馬尼拉海溝地震激發(fā)海嘯的可視化數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果,為南海海嘯快速預(yù)警和海嘯防災(zāi)減災(zāi)提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Tsunami is a kind of marine disaster with sudden and strong destructive power. The huge disasters caused by the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the tsunami in 2011 have attracted great attention all over the world. Tsunamis are usually caused by seabed earthquakes, landslides, or volcanic eruptions, which cause severe vibration and deformation of the seabed, and then trigger the surface of the sea water. The tsunami waves propagate around the coastal zone because of the shallow water depth and the rapid increase of wave height when they reach the coastal zone. This paper aims to simulate the generation, propagation and impact of the tsunami on the coastal zone by using a reliable numerical model, and to analyze the impact of potential tsunami sources in the South China Sea on the surrounding areas. The numerical early warning method for the South China Sea tsunami and the rapid early warning technology for the earthquake and tsunami in Manila trench provide scientific basis for the early warning and disaster prevention and reduction of the South China Sea tsunami. In view of the complicated seabed deformation caused by real earthquake, the evolution of terrain is simulated by using the method of linear superposition of multiple plates or the movement time of each plate is given. The complex process of seabed deformation caused by real earthquake can be described. The nonlinear shallow water equation model is used in this paper. A numerical model of tsunami wave propagation (GeoClaw) is introduced in detail. Based on one-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equation, combined with hyperbolic conservation law and linearization theory, a discrete scheme is constructed on the basis of finite volume method, and the equations are solved numerically. For large-scale computation problems such as tsunami transoceanic propagation, this method can effectively improve the computational efficiency and get the simulation results quickly. Based on the numerical model established on the basis of nonlinear shallow water wave equation, the dam-break problem, the propagation of cylindrical wave, and the liquid problem are respectively solved. Three-dimensional sloshing problem, the influence of Gaussian wave on bank slope and other basic examples are validated. Comparing with analytical solution and experimental results, the calculation accuracy of the model is verified. Comparing the numerical results of different types of meshes, the validity of the adaptive mesh is verified. The results show that the model can effectively simulate the propagation of shallow water waves. Taking the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the local earthquake tsunami in 2011 as examples, the two-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equation numerical model based on the finite volume method is validated and calculated. In order to simulate the real tsunami accurately, the propagation characteristics of the two tsunamis are analyzed according to the numerical simulation results. By simulating different sources and comparing the influence of different precision sources on the numerical results, it is found that the high precision source parameters can get better results. Further more, the Japanese tsunami on Sendai is studied by using a more refined grid. The numerical results show that due to the special propagation path of the tsunami and the shallow water depth of the East China Sea continental shelf, the impact of the 2011 tsunami on China's coast is not significant, and the maximum wave height near the coast is only 0.5m. Focal parameter characteristics and focal parameter characteristics of extraordinarily large earthquakes.The propagation characteristics and influence range of tsunamis induced by different plates during M8 earthquakes are simulated by numerical model,and the effects on Hainan Island,Taiwan Island and Lingding Ocean are analyzed.The possible Mw=9.3 earthquake in Manila trench is further simulated. The propagation characteristics and influence range of the tsunami and its effects on Hainan Island, Taiwan Island and Lingdingyang are calculated, and the characteristics of the flow field generated by the tsunami are analyzed. The propagation of the tsunamis of magnitude mw=8.0 and magnitude mw=9.3 in the South China Sea are calculated by using Boussinesq model. The results of the calculation are compared with those of the calculation with and without considering dispersion. The dispersive effect of potential tsunamis in the South China Sea (SCS) is not obvious. For the potential tsunamis in the Nila trench, the tsunamis caused by unit slip of the unit plate is simulated and calculated, and the corresponding tsunami source database is constructed. The early warning method is applied to the tsunami warning of potential earthquake sources in the Nila trench of the South Hippocampus.The effectiveness of the method is verified by comparing with the simulation results of the positive problem.The inversion method based on multiple buoys developed in this paper is more reliable than the single buoy method in predicting the earthquake tsunami in the Nila trench of the South Hippocampus with higher magnitude and larger range. In view of the cost of buoys, the location of buoys with priority is given by numerical simulation results. Combining with the basic characteristics of the distribution of the potential source fault zone in Manila trench, a rapid early warning method for the sudden tsunami in Manila trench is established. The visualized numerical model of the tsunami triggered by the Manila trench earthquake can be given in 5 minutes. The results provide a basis for the rapid tsunami warning and tsunami disaster prevention and mitigation in the South China Sea.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：O241.82
本文編號(hào)：2200602
[Abstract]:Tsunami is a kind of marine disaster with sudden and strong destructive power. The huge disasters caused by the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the tsunami in 2011 have attracted great attention all over the world. Tsunamis are usually caused by seabed earthquakes, landslides, or volcanic eruptions, which cause severe vibration and deformation of the seabed, and then trigger the surface of the sea water. The tsunami waves propagate around the coastal zone because of the shallow water depth and the rapid increase of wave height when they reach the coastal zone. This paper aims to simulate the generation, propagation and impact of the tsunami on the coastal zone by using a reliable numerical model, and to analyze the impact of potential tsunami sources in the South China Sea on the surrounding areas. The numerical early warning method for the South China Sea tsunami and the rapid early warning technology for the earthquake and tsunami in Manila trench provide scientific basis for the early warning and disaster prevention and reduction of the South China Sea tsunami. In view of the complicated seabed deformation caused by real earthquake, the evolution of terrain is simulated by using the method of linear superposition of multiple plates or the movement time of each plate is given. The complex process of seabed deformation caused by real earthquake can be described. The nonlinear shallow water equation model is used in this paper. A numerical model of tsunami wave propagation (GeoClaw) is introduced in detail. Based on one-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equation, combined with hyperbolic conservation law and linearization theory, a discrete scheme is constructed on the basis of finite volume method, and the equations are solved numerically. For large-scale computation problems such as tsunami transoceanic propagation, this method can effectively improve the computational efficiency and get the simulation results quickly. Based on the numerical model established on the basis of nonlinear shallow water wave equation, the dam-break problem, the propagation of cylindrical wave, and the liquid problem are respectively solved. Three-dimensional sloshing problem, the influence of Gaussian wave on bank slope and other basic examples are validated. Comparing with analytical solution and experimental results, the calculation accuracy of the model is verified. Comparing the numerical results of different types of meshes, the validity of the adaptive mesh is verified. The results show that the model can effectively simulate the propagation of shallow water waves. Taking the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the local earthquake tsunami in 2011 as examples, the two-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equation numerical model based on the finite volume method is validated and calculated. In order to simulate the real tsunami accurately, the propagation characteristics of the two tsunamis are analyzed according to the numerical simulation results. By simulating different sources and comparing the influence of different precision sources on the numerical results, it is found that the high precision source parameters can get better results. Further more, the Japanese tsunami on Sendai is studied by using a more refined grid. The numerical results show that due to the special propagation path of the tsunami and the shallow water depth of the East China Sea continental shelf, the impact of the 2011 tsunami on China's coast is not significant, and the maximum wave height near the coast is only 0.5m. Focal parameter characteristics and focal parameter characteristics of extraordinarily large earthquakes.The propagation characteristics and influence range of tsunamis induced by different plates during M8 earthquakes are simulated by numerical model,and the effects on Hainan Island,Taiwan Island and Lingding Ocean are analyzed.The possible Mw=9.3 earthquake in Manila trench is further simulated. The propagation characteristics and influence range of the tsunami and its effects on Hainan Island, Taiwan Island and Lingdingyang are calculated, and the characteristics of the flow field generated by the tsunami are analyzed. The propagation of the tsunamis of magnitude mw=8.0 and magnitude mw=9.3 in the South China Sea are calculated by using Boussinesq model. The results of the calculation are compared with those of the calculation with and without considering dispersion. The dispersive effect of potential tsunamis in the South China Sea (SCS) is not obvious. For the potential tsunamis in the Nila trench, the tsunamis caused by unit slip of the unit plate is simulated and calculated, and the corresponding tsunami source database is constructed. The early warning method is applied to the tsunami warning of potential earthquake sources in the Nila trench of the South Hippocampus.The effectiveness of the method is verified by comparing with the simulation results of the positive problem.The inversion method based on multiple buoys developed in this paper is more reliable than the single buoy method in predicting the earthquake tsunami in the Nila trench of the South Hippocampus with higher magnitude and larger range. In view of the cost of buoys, the location of buoys with priority is given by numerical simulation results. Combining with the basic characteristics of the distribution of the potential source fault zone in Manila trench, a rapid early warning method for the sudden tsunami in Manila trench is established. The visualized numerical model of the tsunami triggered by the Manila trench earthquake can be given in 5 minutes. The results provide a basis for the rapid tsunami warning and tsunami disaster prevention and mitigation in the South China Sea.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：O241.82
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