【摘要】：干旱是指在長(zhǎng)期無(wú)降水或降水異常偏少的氣候背景下,由于水分的收支或供求不平衡形成的水分短缺現(xiàn)象。干旱災(zāi)害也始終是危害我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的一種主要自然災(zāi)害,同時(shí)也是我國(guó)影響面積最廣的氣象災(zāi)害。近年來(lái)干旱異常事件頻繁發(fā)生,給我國(guó)帶來(lái)了巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。本文首先對(duì)中國(guó)地區(qū)干旱特征進(jìn)行分析研究。利用中國(guó)613個(gè)站點(diǎn)1961～2010年逐月降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù),基于游程理論從月標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水指數(shù)(SPI)序列中分離出干旱事件,并通過(guò)K-S檢驗(yàn)方法對(duì)其干旱強(qiáng)度和干旱歷時(shí)2個(gè)特征量的分布函數(shù)進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用Copula函數(shù)建立2個(gè)特征量的一.維聯(lián)合概率分布函數(shù),對(duì)比分析了干早歷時(shí)分布函數(shù)修訂前后對(duì)不同類(lèi)型干旱聯(lián)合概率及重現(xiàn)期的影響。結(jié)果表明:干旱強(qiáng)度特征量符合Gamma分布,而干旱歷時(shí)特征量并非完全符合指數(shù)分布,因此需對(duì)干旱歷時(shí)分布函數(shù)進(jìn)行必要的修訂。在干旱歷時(shí)分布函數(shù)修訂情況下,大部分干旱類(lèi)型的聯(lián)合概率減小,少部分干旱類(lèi)型的聯(lián)合概率增大;且不同類(lèi)型干旱的聯(lián)合重現(xiàn)期增大。在干旱歷時(shí)尺度相同時(shí),隨著干旱強(qiáng)度的增加,最大和最小聯(lián)合重現(xiàn)期的差異無(wú)明顯變化;但在干旱強(qiáng)度相同時(shí),最大和最小聯(lián)合重現(xiàn)期的差異隨著干旱歷時(shí)的增加而明顯增大。接著在對(duì)干旱災(zāi)害損失曲線(xiàn)的特征進(jìn)行分析基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了基于雙曲正切函數(shù)的干旱災(zāi)害損失評(píng)估模型,明確了模型中參數(shù)的計(jì)算方法及其物理意義。將6個(gè)月尺度的SPI指數(shù)和直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失(剔除通貨膨脹因素后)分別作為自變量和因變量引入模型,構(gòu)建了中國(guó)西南地區(qū)干早災(zāi)害損失評(píng)估模型。根據(jù)原始數(shù)據(jù)散點(diǎn)圖確定模型參數(shù)的初值,將校正決定系數(shù)最大和離差平方和最小作為最優(yōu)擬合判斷準(zhǔn)則,得到最優(yōu)災(zāi)害損失評(píng)估模型。利用最優(yōu)災(zāi)害損失評(píng)估模型對(duì)2004-2013年中國(guó)西南地區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失進(jìn)行了回報(bào)檢驗(yàn),回報(bào)值與實(shí)際統(tǒng)計(jì)值相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.9,且回報(bào)值與實(shí)際值的均方根誤差為57.74,反應(yīng)回報(bào)值的偏差較為合理;進(jìn)一步對(duì)2014年中國(guó)西南地區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失進(jìn)行預(yù)估,預(yù)估值與當(dāng)年干旱災(zāi)害實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)損失也十分相近,說(shuō)明了本文建立區(qū)域干旱災(zāi)害損失評(píng)估模型思路的可行性,以及建立的中國(guó)西南地區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害損失評(píng)估模型的可靠性。最后利用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的投入產(chǎn)出模型,分析了西南地區(qū)2007年農(nóng)業(yè)干旱對(duì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的間接經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。干旱對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)不僅有直接影響,而且有間接影響,而間接影響的定量大小卻鮮有研究。本文選取對(duì)干旱敏感,并且脆弱性較高的農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)為研究對(duì)象,利用投入產(chǎn)出模型,引入干旱這一因素。將干旱作為一個(gè)影響社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的因子來(lái)研究它對(duì)西南地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。結(jié)果表明:農(nóng)業(yè)干早對(duì)其他行業(yè)有一定的影響,并且農(nóng)業(yè)損失越嚴(yán)重對(duì)其他行業(yè)的沖擊也越大。與農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)關(guān)聯(lián)性較強(qiáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)所受影響較大,如:化學(xué)工業(yè)、食品制造及煙草加工業(yè)、批發(fā)和零售業(yè)等;與農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)關(guān)聯(lián)性不強(qiáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)所受影響較小,如:社會(huì)管理和社會(huì)組織、工藝品及其制造業(yè)、郵政業(yè)等。西南各地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)各不相同,貴州和云南化學(xué)工業(yè)所受影響明顯大于其他行業(yè),而四川和重慶其他行業(yè)所受影響較為均衡,并不像貴州和云南單-行業(yè)所受影響大。這也從側(cè)面反映四川和重慶產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與農(nóng)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)性強(qiáng),在同等情況下,所造成的間接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失較大。
[Abstract]:Drought is the phenomenon of water shortage caused by water revenue and expenditure or imbalance of supply and demand in a climate with no precipitation or low precipitation in the long term. Drought disaster is also a major natural disaster which endangers agricultural production in China. It is also the most widely affected meteorological disaster in China. In recent years, frequent droughts are frequent. It has brought great economic loss to China. Firstly, this paper analyzes the drought characteristics of China. Using the monthly precipitation data of 613 stations in China for 1961~2010 years, the drought events are separated from the monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) sequence based on the range theory, and the drought intensity and drought duration are 2 by the K-S test method. The distribution function of the characteristic quantity is tested. On this basis, the Copula function is used to establish the one. Dimension joint probability distribution function of 2 characteristic quantities. The effects of the revision of the dry early diachronic distribution function on the joint probability and the recurrence period of different types of drought are compared and analyzed. The results show that the characteristics of drought intensity conform to the Gamma distribution and the drought calendar. When the time distribution function of drought time distribution function is revised, the joint probability of most drought types decreases and the joint probability of a few drought types increases, and the joint recurrence period of different types of droughts increases. At the same time, with the increase of drought intensity, there is no obvious change in the difference between the maximum and the minimum joint recurrence period, but the difference between the maximum and the minimum joint recurrence period is obviously increased with the increase of the drought duration. The calculation method and physical significance of the parameters in the model are made clear. The SPI index of the 6 month scale and the direct economic loss (after eliminating the inflationary factors) are introduced as the independent variable and the dependent variable respectively. The model of the dry early disaster loss assessment in the southwestern China is constructed. The initial value of the model parameters is determined by the scatter plot, and the optimal coefficient of the determination coefficient and the sum of the square sum of the deviations are corrected as the optimal fitting criterion. The optimal disaster loss assessment model is obtained. The return test is carried out on the direct economic losses of drought disasters in the southwest of China for 2004-2013 years by using the optimal disaster loss assessment model. The correlation coefficient of the statistical value is 0.9, and the root mean square error of the return value and the actual value is 57.74, the deviation of the return value is more reasonable, and the direct economic loss of the drought disaster in Southwest China in 2014 is estimated. The forecast value is very close to the actual economic loss of the drought disaster in the same year, which shows that the drought disaster in the region is established in this paper. The feasibility of the thought of damage assessment model and the reliability of the model of drought disaster loss assessment in Southwest China. Finally, the indirect economic impact of agricultural drought on other industries in the southwest of China in 2007 is analyzed by using the input and output model in economics. The drought has not only direct impact on social economy, but also indirect effect on social economy. The quantitative size of the indirect influence is rarely studied. This paper selects the agricultural economy which is sensitive to drought and has a high vulnerability to agricultural economy, and uses the input-output model to introduce drought as a factor affecting the social economy. It has a certain impact on other industries, and the greater the impact of agricultural losses on other industries. The stronger related industries with agricultural production, such as chemical industry, food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry, wholesale and retail industry, and so on, are less affected by agricultural production related industries, such as social management and society. The industrial structure of the southwest regions is different, the chemical industry in Guizhou and Yunnan is significantly more affected than in other industries, while the other industries in Sichuan and Chongqing are more affected than those in Guizhou and Yunnan, which also reflect the industries of Sichuan and Chongqing. There is a strong correlation between structure and agriculture, and in the same circumstances, the indirect economic losses are greater.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：揚(yáng)州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;P426.616;F224

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