本文選題：條件句概率 + 缺漏真值表�。� 參考：《邏輯學(xué)研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：心理學(xué)家很早就開始研究指示條件句的語意論,這近十幾年來更試圖從指示條件句的概率著手,再回頭來看看什么樣的語意論最能夠解釋實驗數(shù)據(jù)。從這些實驗中出現(xiàn)了三個顯著的結(jié)果:第一、大多數(shù)的人認(rèn)為指示條件句的概率等于條件概率;第二、為數(shù)不少的人認(rèn)為指示條件句的概率等于其前件與后件為真的連言概率;第三、大多數(shù)的人對指示條件句的真假值看法采取缺漏真值表。前兩個結(jié)果對心理學(xué)家造成極大的難題,為何會出現(xiàn)這樣的結(jié)果?有沒有一個統(tǒng)一的語意論能去解釋它?心理學(xué)家們幾乎全在辯護條件概率者的看法才是正確的,并試圖提出條件概率者背后的心理機制,并在此基礎(chǔ)上試圖解釋為何連言概率者會犯錯。然而,筆者會在本文論證這個方向是錯誤的;本文主張我們應(yīng)該從另一個方向來解釋條件概率和連言概率說法之間的關(guān)聯(lián)。筆者認(rèn)為解套的關(guān)鍵在于缺漏真值表,筆者建議從這個心理學(xué)很早就發(fā)現(xiàn)的重要結(jié)果出發(fā),試圖發(fā)展出一個三值語意論,比較有機會幫助心理學(xué)家解決這個難題。筆者給出兩個理由來捍衛(wèi)這個立場,首先,貧乏性結(jié)果已指出條件概率不可能是指示條件句為真的概率;再者,筆者會說明劉吉宴提出的三值語意論如何幫助心理學(xué)家們解決這個問題。(劉吉宴,2014)最后筆者得出結(jié)論,連言概率說法比條件概率說法更為可信。
[Abstract]:Psychologists have been studying the semantic theory of demonstrative conditional sentences for a long time. In recent years, they have tried to start with the probability of demonstrative conditional sentences, and then look back at what semantic theory can best explain the experimental data. From these experiments, there are three remarkable results: first, most people think that the probability of demonstrative conditional sentence is equal to conditional probability; second, a large number of people think that the probability of demonstrative conditional sentence is equal to the probability of its former and posterior parts. Thirdly, most people adopt the missing truth table for the true and false value of the demonstrative conditional sentence. The first two results pose a great problem for psychologists. Why is this the result? Is there a unified theory of meaning that can explain it? Psychologists almost always argue that the conditional probability is correct, and try to put forward the psychological mechanism behind the conditional probability, and on this basis, try to explain why the probabilities of even words make mistakes. However, the author will argue in this paper that this direction is wrong; this paper argues that we should explain the relationship between conditional probability and concatenation probability from another direction. The author thinks that the key to unlocking lies in the missing truth table. The author suggests that starting from the important result discovered early in this psychology, try to develop a ternary semantic theory, which has the opportunity to help psychologists solve this problem. The author gives two reasons to defend this position. First, the paucity result has pointed out that conditional probability cannot be the probability that the indicator conditional sentence is true. I will explain how Liu Ji's ternary semantic theory helps psychologists solve this problem. (Liu Ji Banquet 2014) at last, the author concludes that the theory of continuous probability is more reliable than conditional probability.
【作者單位】： 京都大學(xué)大學(xué)院文學(xué)研究科哲學(xué)研究室;
【分類號】：O211.9

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本文編號：1974125