本文選題：人口結構 + 住宅價格��； 參考：《西安建筑科技大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：住宅問題與居民的生活密切相關,其價格的變動不單會影響居民的生活水平,并且會對整個社會經(jīng)濟的健康發(fā)展具有極為深刻的影響。隨著我國房地產(chǎn)商品化和社會化的逐步加深,城市住宅價格呈現(xiàn)不斷上漲的趨勢。除了社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、國家政策轉變以及人們思想觀念改變等因素的影響外,近年來我國人口結構的變化也是住宅價格變動的重要影響因素。本課題根據(jù)2004~2015年人口結構數(shù)據(jù)和住宅價格數(shù)據(jù),應用VAR模型系統(tǒng)地分析了12年來西安市人口結構和住宅價格變化之間的關系。在收集2004~2015年間西安市人口結構數(shù)據(jù)和住宅價格原始數(shù)據(jù)基礎上,本文首先建立了基于人口年齡結構、戶均家庭規(guī)模、遷移結構變化、性別結構、教育結構、就業(yè)結構以及城鄉(xiāng)結構變化對西安市住宅價格影響的VAR模型,進而采用單位根平穩(wěn)性檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗、格蘭杰(Granger)因果檢驗等檢驗方法對所建模型進行了脈沖響應函數(shù)分析及方差解析。本文的實證研究結果表明:人口年齡的結構變化對西安市住宅價格具有顯著影響;人口年齡結構、戶均家庭規(guī)模和人口遷移結構變化均具有長期影響。隨著西安市人口老齡化的加劇和現(xiàn)行的二胎政策,西安市15~64歲年齡段人口比重將進一步降低,西安市將面臨著住宅價格上漲動力不足的問題。在西安市遷入人口占比逐漸下降、總人口數(shù)量增加和戶均家庭規(guī)模減小的情況下,西安市住宅價格從長期來看可能會繼續(xù)上漲,但漲幅不大。盡管西安市住宅價格的短期變化主要受本身經(jīng)濟結構發(fā)展的影響,但人口結構變化對西安市住宅價格長期影響將會逐漸顯現(xiàn)。依據(jù)課題的研究成果,本文認為在西安市未來發(fā)展過程中,應逐步采取開放的人口政策保持該地區(qū)人口結構的相對穩(wěn)定性,以緩解住宅價格變化帶來的市場壓力。
[Abstract]:The housing problem is closely related to the residents' life, and the change of its price will not only affect the living standard of the residents, but also have a profound impact on the healthy development of the whole society and economy. With the deepening of commercialization and socialization of real estate in China, the price of urban housing is rising. In addition to the influence of social and economic development, the change of national policy and the change of people's idea, the change of population structure is also the important factor of the change of housing price in recent years. Based on the population structure data and housing price data from 2004 to 2015, the relationship between population structure and housing price changes in Xi'an over the past 12 years is systematically analyzed by using VAR model. Based on the data of population structure and housing price in Xi'an between 2004 and 2015, this paper first establishes the population age structure, the average household size, the migration structure change, the gender structure, the education structure. The VAR model of the influence of employment structure and the change of urban and rural structure on the housing price in Xi'an city, and then adopt the unit root stability test and cointegration test. Granger causality test and other test methods are used to analyze the impulse response function and variance of the model. The empirical results show that: the structural change of population age has a significant impact on housing prices in Xi'an, and the change of population age structure, average household size and population migration structure all have a long-term impact. With the aggravation of population aging and the current two-child policy in Xi'an, the proportion of population aged 15 to 64 in Xi'an will be further reduced, and Xi'an will be faced with the problem of insufficient power to rise in housing prices. Housing prices in Xi'an are likely to continue to rise in the long term, but not much, as the proportion of residents in Xi'an declines, the total population increases and household size shrinks. Although the short-term change of housing price in Xi'an is mainly affected by the development of its own economic structure, the long-term effect of the change of population structure on housing price in Xi'an will gradually appear. According to the research results, this paper holds that in the future development of Xi'an City, the open population policy should be adopted step by step to maintain the relative stability of the population structure in this area, so as to alleviate the market pressure caused by the change of housing price.
【學位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.2;F299.23;F224

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