本文選題：性別比率 + 交互作用偏差��； 參考：《數(shù)理統(tǒng)計與管理》2017年04期

【摘要】：雖然雙系統(tǒng)估計量目前是人口普查質(zhì)量評估領(lǐng)域估計總體實際人口數(shù)的主要方法,但其內(nèi)在固有的缺陷卻依然存在,即由于人口普查與其質(zhì)量評估調(diào)查不獨立引起的交互作用偏差使其低估或高估人口數(shù)。獨立性假設(shè)失敗源于在普查及其質(zhì)量評估調(diào)查中登記的因果相關(guān)性,以及在普查及質(zhì)量評估調(diào)查中登記概率的異質(zhì)性。Bell模型是當(dāng)前公認的測算交互作用偏差的有效方法。該方法建立在0-17歲及成年女性的雙系統(tǒng)估計值不存在交互作用偏差的假設(shè)條件下。利用美國普查局提供的2010年資料全面展示了雙系統(tǒng)估計量交互作用偏差的測算過程。實證結(jié)果表明,黑人成年男性的雙系統(tǒng)估計值存在顯著的交互作用偏差。研究有助于我國在未來人口普查質(zhì)量評估工作中意識到交互作用偏差的存在,把測算的交互作用偏差添加到雙系統(tǒng)估計量估計的人口數(shù)中,并依據(jù)修正后的雙系統(tǒng)估計值計算人口普查凈誤差。
[Abstract]:Although dual-system estimates are currently the main method of estimating the overall actual population in the field of census quality assessment, their inherent shortcomings remain, That is, the population is underestimated or overestimated due to the interaction bias caused by the independence of the census and its quality assessment survey. The failure of independence hypothesis stems from the causality of registration in census and quality assessment survey, and the heterogeneity of registration probability in census and quality assessment survey. Bell model is widely accepted as an effective method to measure the deviation of interaction. The method is based on the assumption that there is no interaction bias in the two-system estimates of women aged 0-17 and adults. Based on the data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2010, the calculation process of the interaction bias between the two system estimators is presented. The empirical results show that there is a significant interaction bias between the two-system estimates of black adult males. The research will help our country to realize the existence of the interaction deviation in the future census quality assessment, and add the calculated interaction deviation to the population estimated by the double system estimator. The net census error is calculated based on the modified double system estimate.
【作者單位】： 重慶工商大學(xué)經(jīng)濟社會應(yīng)用統(tǒng)計重慶市重點實驗室;重慶工商大學(xué)長江上游經(jīng)濟研究中心;
【基金】：2016年重慶市社會科學(xué)規(guī)劃重大委托項目(2016WT03) 國家社會科學(xué)基金項目(15BTJ011) 全國統(tǒng)計科學(xué)研究重點項目(2016LZ29) 重慶工商大學(xué)經(jīng)濟社會應(yīng)用統(tǒng)計重慶市重點實驗室資助項目 重慶市社會科學(xué)規(guī)劃年度項目(2016YBJJ022) 全國統(tǒng)計科學(xué)研究一般項目(2016LY28)
【分類號】：O212.1

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本文編號：1790294