本文選題：天然氣進(jìn)口 + 出口國(guó)偏好��； 參考：《系統(tǒng)管理學(xué)報(bào)》2017年03期

【摘要】：兼顧經(jīng)濟(jì)利益和能源供應(yīng)安全是天然氣進(jìn)口國(guó)的重要考量。運(yùn)用微分對(duì)策理論,構(gòu)建了受出口國(guó)偏好和進(jìn)口多元化程度影響的天然氣進(jìn)口國(guó)博弈模型,并獲得了模型的最優(yōu)解。研究表明,天然氣進(jìn)口國(guó)從某一個(gè)出口國(guó)的最優(yōu)進(jìn)口量與進(jìn)口國(guó)愿意支付的最高價(jià)格和出口國(guó)的絕對(duì)偏好程度正相關(guān)。當(dāng)天然氣進(jìn)口國(guó)的進(jìn)口多元化程度高時(shí),其達(dá)到初始預(yù)期進(jìn)口需求總量的時(shí)間變短,有利于保障能源供應(yīng)安全。但是天然氣進(jìn)口國(guó)的消費(fèi)者剩余與本國(guó)進(jìn)口多元化程度負(fù)相關(guān),與其他競(jìng)爭(zhēng)進(jìn)口國(guó)的進(jìn)口多元化程度正相關(guān),且出口國(guó)相對(duì)偏好越低,該變化的幅度越大。因此,從獲得經(jīng)濟(jì)利益的角度看,進(jìn)口多元化程度并不是越高越好,研究發(fā)現(xiàn),存在一個(gè)兼顧經(jīng)濟(jì)利益和能源供應(yīng)安全的"進(jìn)口多元化程度"。
[Abstract]:Balancing economic interests and energy supply security is an important consideration for natural gas importing countries.By using differential game theory, the game model of natural gas importing country affected by exporting country's preference and import diversification degree is constructed, and the optimal solution of the model is obtained.The study shows that the optimal import volume of natural gas importing countries from one exporter is positively related to the maximum price that the importing country is willing to pay and the absolute preference of the exporting country.When the import diversification degree of natural gas importing country is high, the time to reach the initial expected import demand becomes shorter, which is helpful to ensure the security of energy supply.However, the consumer surplus in natural gas importing countries is negatively correlated with the degree of import diversification, and is positively correlated with the degree of import diversification in other competitive importing countries, and the lower the relative preference of the exporting countries, the greater the range of this change.Therefore, from the point of view of obtaining economic benefits, the degree of import diversification is not the higher the better. The study finds that there exists a "degree of import diversification" which takes account of economic interests and energy supply security.
【作者單位】： 重慶大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與工商管理學(xué)院;重慶科技學(xué)院數(shù)理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(71133007,71071172) 國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(16BGL136) 重慶市教委人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究資助項(xiàng)目(14SK006)
【分類號(hào)】：F224.32;F416.22;F746
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本文編號(hào)：1767498