本文選題：灰信息背景　切入點(diǎn)：技術(shù)方案篩選　出處：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：21世紀(jì)是太空經(jīng)濟(jì)時代,運(yùn)載火箭是發(fā)展空間科學(xué)的基礎(chǔ),在航天項(xiàng)目中一直扮演重要角色。在新的時代背景下,市場對運(yùn)載火箭的經(jīng)濟(jì)性、技術(shù)先進(jìn)性提出了更高要求。研究表明運(yùn)載火箭方案階段決定了整個研制方案70%的成本,因此在運(yùn)載火箭方案設(shè)計(jì)階段加強(qiáng)成本的預(yù)測,強(qiáng)化設(shè)計(jì)方案的優(yōu)選是運(yùn)載火箭成本、技術(shù)、市場競爭力的重要保障。而運(yùn)載火箭研制技術(shù)難度大,研制周期長,影響因素多,不確定性高,呈現(xiàn)少數(shù)據(jù)、貧信息特征,這些都給運(yùn)載火箭研制方案的費(fèi)用預(yù)測與篩選工作帶來極大挑戰(zhàn)。本論文以技術(shù)、成本、經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化為邏輯主線,構(gòu)建灰信息背景下的運(yùn)載火箭研制方案費(fèi)用測算與方案篩選模型。首先分析我國運(yùn)載火箭研制費(fèi)用測算與方案選擇現(xiàn)狀及不足,進(jìn)而從技術(shù)維度入手,構(gòu)造基于任務(wù)要求的運(yùn)載火箭技術(shù)方案“灰靶屋”篩選模型,解決技術(shù)維度的方案初選問題;設(shè)計(jì)運(yùn)載火箭研制費(fèi)用關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動因子極大熵篩選模型,構(gòu)造運(yùn)載火箭研制費(fèi)用灰色測算模型,測算研制成本;最后搭建“技術(shù)-成本-市場”一體化視角下研制方案“灰色關(guān)聯(lián)篩選屋”模型,為運(yùn)載火箭研制方案的綜合篩選提供寶貴的理論參考和技術(shù)支持,相關(guān)研究工作可歸納如下:(1)基于任務(wù)要求的運(yùn)載火箭技術(shù)方案“灰靶屋”篩選模型設(shè)計(jì)。結(jié)合經(jīng)典的技術(shù)方案QFD評選方法和多目標(biāo)加權(quán)灰靶決策模型,構(gòu)建基于任務(wù)要求的運(yùn)載火箭技術(shù)方案“灰靶屋”評價模型進(jìn)行運(yùn)載火箭技術(shù)方案評估與篩選。(2)運(yùn)載火箭研制費(fèi)用關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動因子極大熵識別模型研究。本文從驅(qū)動因子的權(quán)重配置角度,提出了一種驅(qū)動比重最大化的運(yùn)載火箭研制費(fèi)用驅(qū)動因子極大熵篩選模型,設(shè)計(jì)兩類情景下的運(yùn)載火箭關(guān)鍵費(fèi)用驅(qū)動因子篩選方法。(3)運(yùn)載火箭研制費(fèi)用分?jǐn)?shù)階灰色測算模型FOGM(0,N)和FOOGM(1,1)構(gòu)建。針對少量研制費(fèi)用橫截面數(shù)據(jù),定義樣本相似度,并依據(jù)相似度對原始數(shù)據(jù)排序,規(guī)定與待預(yù)測對象越相似的樣本數(shù)據(jù)對FOGM(0,N)模型解的影響越敏感,進(jìn)而建立關(guān)鍵費(fèi)用驅(qū)動因子的分?jǐn)?shù)階累加的FOGM(0,N)模型,預(yù)測運(yùn)載火箭研制費(fèi)用。針對運(yùn)載火箭研制費(fèi)用體現(xiàn)時間序列特征的問題,利用新信息優(yōu)先原理,構(gòu)建FGOM(1,1)模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)對研制費(fèi)用時間序列數(shù)據(jù)最少信息的最大挖掘。(4)“技術(shù)-成本-市場”一體化視角的運(yùn)載火箭研制方案灰色加權(quán)關(guān)聯(lián)篩選模型研究。針對目前運(yùn)載火箭研制方案篩選工作缺乏系統(tǒng)工程視角的問題,本文綜合考慮技術(shù)、成本、市場,搭建一體化視角下的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)篩選屋框架,構(gòu)建技術(shù)競爭力指數(shù)、成本競爭力指數(shù)、市場競爭力指數(shù)的測算模型。進(jìn)而集結(jié)運(yùn)載火箭研制和市場專家經(jīng)驗(yàn),構(gòu)建“技術(shù)-成本-市場”指標(biāo)權(quán)重極大熵分配模型,權(quán)衡技術(shù)、成本、市場三個維度。最后建立“技術(shù)-成本-市場”一體化視角的研制方案灰色加權(quán)關(guān)聯(lián)篩選模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)對運(yùn)載火箭研制方案的綜合篩選。
[Abstract]:Twenty-first Century is the space rocket economy, is the basis for the development of space science, has played an important role in the aerospace project. Under the background of new era, economy of market of rocket and put forward higher requirements for advanced technology. The results show that the rocket method determines the development plan of 70% of the cost therefore to strengthen the cost forecast in the rocket design stage, strengthening design is the launch vehicle cost, technology, market competitiveness is an important guarantee. While the rocket developed technical difficulty, long development cycle, multi factors, high uncertainty, has less data, poor information characteristics, which brings a tremendous challenge to predict these are to launch vehicle development program costs and screening work. In this paper, the cost of economic integration as a logical clue, constructing the grey information under the background of carrier rocket design fee With the calculation and program selection model. Firstly, analysis of China's rocket research measure and scheme selection cost and shortage, and then from the perspective of construction technology, rocket technology solutions "task based on grey house screening model, solve the technical dimension of the early selection scheme; design of rocket development costs of the key driving factors greatly entropy screening model, structure of rocket development cost grey calculation model, estimates the cost of development; finally," from the perspective of technology cost market integration development plan "grey screening house" model, to provide theoretical reference and technical support for the development of valuable rocket integrated screening program, related research work can be summarized as follows: (1) rocket technology program "the task of grey target house screening model design based on technical scheme. Combining with the classic QFD selection method and multicast Standard weighted grey target decision model, based on the mission requirements of carrier rocket technology program "grey house" evaluation model of launch vehicle technology project evaluation and selection. (2) the rocket development cost of the key factors to drive maximum entropy recognition model. From the angle of weight allocation driving factors, proposed a rocket development cost driving proportion maximum driving factor of maximum entropy model for screening, the cost of rocket key design two scenarios driving factor screening method. (3) the rocket development cost fractional grey calculation model FOGM (0, N) and FOOGM (1,1) was constructed. The development cost for small cross section data, definition of similarity according to the similarity ranking, original data, provides sample data and forecast object is similar to the FOGM (0, N) model to solve the influence of more sensitive, and a key factor driving costs The fractional accumulation of FOGM (0, N) model, forecast the development cost. The rocket launch vehicle development costs reflect the characteristics of time series problems, using new information priority principle, construction of FGOM (1,1) model, to achieve maximum mining development cost time series data at least information. (4) "launch vehicle development from the perspective of technological scheme cost market integrated grey correlation model for screening research. Aiming at the launch vehicle development program selection is lack of system engineering perspective, considering the cost, technology, market, build a grey relational integration perspective screening house framework, construction technology competitiveness index, cost competitiveness index, calculation model of the market the competitiveness index. And then build a launch vehicle development and market experts" experience, construction technology - cost market "index weight maximum entropy distribution model, the trade-off. There are three dimensions of operation, cost and market. Finally, a grey weighted relational screening model is developed based on the technology cost market integration perspective, so as to realize the comprehensive screening of launch vehicle development plan.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F224;F426.5;F406.7

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