本文選題：網(wǎng)絡搜索模式 + 搜索引擎��； 參考：《華東師范大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：金融危機傳導問題一直是國內(nèi)外金融領域研究者探討的一個熱點問題,現(xiàn)有的研究通常是從宏觀角度展開,側(cè)重于危機指標監(jiān)測,多為預警模型。然而金融市場的宏觀整體波動往往依托于微觀主體的系統(tǒng)性行為偏差,即在信息不對稱的情況下,個體行為偏差可能透過市場情緒和社會傳染引發(fā)非理性的市場狂熱和恐慌,最終將金融市場上的局部偏離演化成系統(tǒng)的、全面的金融危機。 互聯(lián)網(wǎng)與搜索引擎的發(fā)展,為個體行為研究開辟了新的領域。本文通過對羊群行為的解讀,將網(wǎng)絡搜索行為看作大眾的關(guān)注熱點或動機的體現(xiàn),通過研究整理金融危機相關(guān)的詞表,構(gòu)建網(wǎng)絡搜索靜態(tài)模式,其后在金融危機傳導過程中,動態(tài)地分析網(wǎng)絡搜索趨勢的傳播與演化。最后結(jié)合2008年金融危機在中國與美國的實際蔓延情況,來分析網(wǎng)絡搜索中大眾關(guān)注度的變換與危機傳導趨勢之間的聯(lián)系。 在構(gòu)建網(wǎng)絡搜索靜態(tài)模式時,主要是基于WordScore文本分析原理。對文獻進行充分的調(diào)研后,將金融危機信息劃分為三個類別,即現(xiàn)狀描述類、根源探索類和應對措施類。然后利用爬蟲工具抓取網(wǎng)絡上金融危機相關(guān)的新聞信息,對其進行分類、分詞、過濾等前期工作,最后在專家小組的參與下,形成領域詞表,構(gòu)建了金融危機的網(wǎng)絡搜索靜態(tài)模式。 在靜態(tài)模式的基礎上,本文以Google為數(shù)據(jù)源,建立了網(wǎng)絡搜索動態(tài)模式。即通過Google Trends提供的接口,采集、整理靜態(tài)詞表中相關(guān)詞匯的關(guān)注度數(shù)據(jù),然后分別從時間和地域的維度,繪出每組數(shù)據(jù)的關(guān)注度趨勢圖進行比較分析。 最后就搜索模式與金融危機傳導的相關(guān)性做了實證分析,首先分別梳理了金融危機在中美的蔓延情況,然后對比分析了美國、中國、中美的關(guān)注度趨勢圖與危機傳導實例間的對應關(guān)系。接著就中美的傳導趨勢數(shù)據(jù)做了回歸統(tǒng)計,以進一步探討兩者之間的相關(guān)性以及傳導的時間差。在綜合前文的分析后,得出結(jié)論并針對其特性提出對傳導過程進行干預、引導的可行性建議。 本論文特色和創(chuàng)新之處在于利用情報學的研究方法從信息的角度研究金融危機傳導、演變的過程,即通過用戶的網(wǎng)絡搜索相關(guān)行為信息來表征其關(guān)注熱點或動機,以此分析大眾關(guān)注度的變換與危機傳導趨勢之間的聯(lián)系。本文較以往經(jīng)濟學的研究更加偏于對信息本質(zhì)的分析,可能會為金融危機的預防和疏導提供新的思路。
[Abstract]:The problem of financial crisis transmission has been a hot topic for researchers in the field of finance at home and abroad. The existing research is usually carried out from a macro perspective, focusing on the monitoring of crisis indicators, most of which are early warning models. However, the macro fluctuation of financial market often depends on the systematic behavior deviation of microcosmic subject, that is, under the condition of information asymmetry, individual behavior deviation may lead to irrational market frenzy and panic through market emotion and social contagion. Finally, the partial deviation in the financial market is evolved into a systematic and comprehensive financial crisis. The development of the Internet and search engines opens up a new field for the study of individual behavior. Through the interpretation of herding behavior, this paper regards the behavior of Internet search as the embodiment of the public's attention or motivation, and constructs the static mode of network search by studying and sorting out the lexicon related to the financial crisis, and then in the process of conducting the financial crisis. Dynamic analysis of the spread and evolution of network search trends. Finally, combined with the actual spread of the financial crisis in China and the United States in 2008, to analyze the relationship between the change of public concern and the trend of crisis transmission in the network search. Is mainly based on WordScore text analysis principle. After a full investigation of the literature, the financial crisis information can be divided into three categories, namely, the description of the status quo, the class of root exploration and the type of measures to deal with the financial crisis. Then the crawler tool is used to grab the news information related to the financial crisis on the network, to classify, participle, filter and so on. Finally, with the participation of the expert group, the domain vocabulary is formed. On the basis of the static mode, this paper takes Google as the data source and establishes the dynamic pattern of network search. That is, through the interface provided by Google Trends, we collect and sort out the attention data of the relevant words in the static lexicon, and then from the dimension of time and region, Finally, the correlation between search mode and financial crisis transmission is analyzed empirically. Firstly, the spread of the financial crisis in China and the United States is combed out, and then the United States is compared and analyzed. China, the relationship between China and America's trend Chart of concern and crisis Transmission case. Then, regression statistics are made on the conduction trend data of China and the United States to further explore the correlation between them and the time difference of transmission. After synthesizing the above analysis, we draw a conclusion and propose to intervene in the conduction process according to its characteristics. The characteristic and innovation of this paper lies in the use of information science research methods to study the transmission and evolution of financial crisis from the perspective of information. That is to say, users search for relevant behavior information to express their focus or motivation, so as to analyze the relationship between the change of public attention and the trend of crisis transmission. This paper is more focused on the analysis of the nature of information than the previous studies of economics, which may provide a new way of thinking for the prevention and guidance of financial crisis.
【學位授予單位】：華東師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：G354;F831.59

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