【摘要】：根據(jù)各地市農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)節(jié)水水平高低比較進(jìn)行水量的重新分配。將各引黃地市根據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)用水量的不同，分別給予不同的權(quán)重。建立先進(jìn)節(jié)水指標(biāo)體系，農(nóng)業(yè)按照灌溉水利用系數(shù)指標(biāo)，，工業(yè)按照萬元工業(yè)增加值取水量指標(biāo)。將實(shí)際用水水平與各地區(qū)先進(jìn)節(jié)水指標(biāo)比較得出的相對(duì)差額，進(jìn)行水量的優(yōu)化分配，節(jié)水水平高的，水量核減較少，節(jié)水水平較低的，水量核減較多。通過研究得到如下結(jié)論： 本論文運(yùn)用了GAMS軟件建立了山東黃河三個(gè)典型年的水量優(yōu)化分配模型，通過確定引水分配指標(biāo)與用水節(jié)水水平掛鉤，模擬計(jì)算了黃河山東段在三個(gè)典型年來水量減少（10%、20%和30%）三種情景時(shí)的水量優(yōu)化分配問題，提出了山東黃河水量的分配模式以及優(yōu)化調(diào)度方案。很好地解決了水量短缺時(shí)各地市工農(nóng)業(yè)分水“一刀切”的問題，在水量調(diào)度管理工作中具有十分重要的實(shí)踐意義。 通過對(duì)典型年的優(yōu)化方案分析可知，山東省引黃地區(qū)淄博、青島、濟(jì)南、濰坊、濟(jì)寧、濱州農(nóng)業(yè)節(jié)水水平較高，德州、東營、菏澤農(nóng)業(yè)節(jié)水水平較低。特枯年三種來水減少的情況下，農(nóng)業(yè)用水由節(jié)水水平低的地區(qū)向節(jié)水水平高的地區(qū)分別轉(zhuǎn)移了0.1090億m3、0.2179億m3和0.3269億m3的水量，農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值分別增加0.7656億元、1.5307億元和2.2961億元，糧食產(chǎn)量分別增加2.0327萬t、4.0640萬t和6.0963萬t；枯水年三種來水減少的情況下，農(nóng)業(yè)用水由節(jié)水水平低的地區(qū)向節(jié)水水平高的地區(qū)分別轉(zhuǎn)移了0.1723億m3、0.3447億m3和0.5170億m3的水量，農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值分別增加1.1935億元、2.3876億元和3.5811億元，糧食產(chǎn)量分別增加2.7657萬t、5.5329萬t和8.2988萬t；平水年三種來水減少的情況下，農(nóng)業(yè)用水由節(jié)水水平低的地區(qū)向節(jié)水水平高的地區(qū)分別轉(zhuǎn)移了0.1126億m3、0.2252億m3和0.3378億m3的水量，農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值分別增加1.4161億元、2.8318億元和4.2482億元，糧食產(chǎn)量分別增加2.7274萬t、5.4541萬t和8.1821萬t。 青島、東營工業(yè)節(jié)水水平較高，菏澤、聊城、濟(jì)寧工業(yè)節(jié)水水平較低。特枯年三種來水減少的情況下，工業(yè)用水由節(jié)水水平低的地區(qū)向節(jié)水水平高的地區(qū)分別轉(zhuǎn)移了0.1997億m3、0.3994億m3和0.5991億m3的水量，工業(yè)GDP分別增加63.2662億元、126.5391億元和189.7989億元；枯水年三種來水減少的情況下，工業(yè)用水由節(jié)水水平低的地區(qū)向節(jié)水水平高的地區(qū)分別轉(zhuǎn)移了0.1965億m3、0.3929億m3和0.5894億m3的水量，工業(yè)GDP分別增加83.7154億元、167.4094億元和251.1036億元；平水年三種來水減少的情況下，工業(yè)用水由節(jié)水水平低的地區(qū)向節(jié)水水平高的地區(qū)分別轉(zhuǎn)移了0.1470億m3、0.2940億m3和0.4411億m3的水量，工業(yè)GDP分別增加239.0603億元、478.1937億元和717.3435億元。 在黃河來水量減少的條件下，重新優(yōu)化水量的分配，轉(zhuǎn)移的水量顯著增加了社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，對(duì)建設(shè)節(jié)水型社會(huì)具有重要作用。
[Abstract]:According to the level of agricultural and industrial water saving in various cities and cities, the redistribution of water quantity is carried out. According to the different agricultural and industrial water consumption, different weights will be given to the cities and cities of the Yellow River. The advanced water-saving index system should be set up, agriculture according to the index of irrigation water utilization coefficient and industry according to the index of industrial added value of ten thousand yuan. The relative difference between actual water use level and advanced water saving indexes in various regions is compared, and the optimal distribution of water quantity is carried out. The results show that the water saving level is high, the core reduction of water quantity is less, the water saving level is lower, and the water quantity core reduction is more. The conclusions are as follows: in this paper, the GAMS software is used to establish the optimal allocation model of water in three typical years of the Yellow River in Shandong Province, and the allocation index of diversion water is linked to the level of water saving by determining the distribution index of water diversion. The optimal allocation of water in the Shandong section of the Yellow River in three typical years (10%, 20% and 30%) was simulated and calculated, and the water allocation model and optimal dispatching scheme of the Yellow River in Shandong Province were put forward. The problem of "one size fits all" in industrial and agricultural water distribution during water shortage is well solved, and it is of great practical significance in the management of water quantity dispatching. According to the analysis of the optimization scheme of typical years, the agricultural water-saving level of Zibo, Qingdao, Jinan, Weifang, Jining and Binzhou in the Yellow River diversion area of Shandong Province is higher than that of Texas, Dongying and Heze. Under the condition of the reduction of three kinds of water, the agricultural water use transferred 10.9 million m3, 21.79 million m3 and 32.69 million m3 respectively from the area with low water-saving level to the area with high water-saving level, and the agricultural output value increased by 76.56 million yuan, respectively. 153.07 million yuan and 229.61 million yuan, the grain output increased by 20327 t, 40640 t and 60963 t, respectively. Under the condition of the decrease of three kinds of water in low water year, the agricultural water use transferred 17.23 million m3, 34.47 million m3 and 51.7 million m3 respectively from the area with low water saving level to the area with high water saving level, and the agricultural output value increased by 119.35 million yuan, respectively. 238.76 million yuan and 358.11 million yuan, the grain output increased by 27657 t, 55329 t and 82988 t, respectively. With the decrease of three kinds of water in plain water year, 11.26 million m3, 22.52 million m3 and 33.78 million m3 of water were transferred from the area with low water saving level to the area with high water saving level, respectively, and the agricultural output value increased by 141.61 million yuan, respectively. With 283.18 million yuan and 424.82 million yuan, the grain output increased by 27274 t, 54541 t and 81821 t, respectively. Qingdao, Dongying industrial water-saving level is higher, Heze, Liaocheng, Jining industrial water-saving level is lower. Under the condition of the decrease of the three kinds of water in the very dry year, 19.97 million m3, 39.94 million m3 and 59.91 million m3 of water were transferred from the areas with low water-saving level to those with high water-saving levels, respectively, and the industrial GDP increased by 6.32662 billion yuan, respectively. 12.65391 billion yuan and 18.97989 billion yuan; With the decrease of three kinds of water in low water year, the industrial water use transferred 19.65 million m3, 39.29 million m3 and 58.94 million m3 respectively from low water-saving area to high water-saving area, and the industrial GDP increased by 8.37154 billion yuan, respectively. 16.74094 billion yuan and 25.11036 billion yuan; With the decrease of the three types of water in plain water year, 14.7 million m3, 29.4 million m3 and 44.11 million m3 of water were transferred from the area with low water saving level to the area with high water saving level, respectively, and the industrial GDP increased by 23.90603 billion yuan, respectively. 47.81937 billion yuan and 71.73435 billion yuan. Under the condition of decreasing the inflow of water from the Yellow River, reoptimizing the distribution of water quantity, the transferred water quantity has significantly increased the social economy and the economic benefit of enterprises, and has an important role in building a water-saving society.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：濟(jì)南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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