【摘要】：水資源是經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的重要物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),是一個國家最重要的戰(zhàn)略資源之一。我國水資源人均不足且時空分布不均,這給我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和社會進步帶來很大的挑戰(zhàn)。在平原地區(qū),解決此問題的重要措施之一為在水資源缺乏地區(qū)修建一定數(shù)量的平原水庫,通過其對水的蓄、排,實現(xiàn)水資源在時空上再分配,能夠有效緩解日趨嚴峻的水資源供需矛盾。山東省平原水庫建設(shè)起步早、發(fā)展快,但是在其運行管理中存在某些不足。本文通過對丁東水庫的分析發(fā)現(xiàn)其不足之處主要為:一是平原水庫的運行調(diào)度以經(jīng)驗調(diào)度為主,調(diào)節(jié)功能較為低下,造成無法達到供水對象設(shè)計保證率的要求;二是修建過程中受當時科學技術(shù)條件的限制,存在著設(shè)計標準偏低、施工工序存在不足以及缺乏對生態(tài)環(huán)境考慮等問題,致使平原水庫運行管理中存在風險,缺乏完善的評定平原水庫健康狀態(tài)的評價體系。本文針對上述兩個問題開展了研究,主要研究內(nèi)容如下:(1)分析影響平原水庫提水量的主要因素,以入庫泵站運行周期能源單耗最小為目標函數(shù),使用遺傳算法對歷史資料進行優(yōu)化調(diào)度得到水庫提水調(diào)度數(shù)據(jù)集,采用能夠?qū)⑵皆畮飚斍靶钏闆r、氣象預報信息、水庫多年的實際運行情況與調(diào)度者經(jīng)驗相結(jié)合的決策樹C4.5算法從中提取提水調(diào)度規(guī)則決策樹。利用決策樹C4.5算法在丁東水庫2002~2010年提水調(diào)度數(shù)據(jù)集中提取調(diào)度規(guī)則決策樹,采用2011~2015年數(shù)據(jù)進行驗證,結(jié)果證明相較于實際調(diào)度,前者具有提高供水保證率和泵站效率以及減少能源消耗的優(yōu)點,相較于遺傳算法具有操作性強的優(yōu)勢。(2)綜合考慮影響平原水庫健康的各方面因素,提出了健康平原水庫的定義;然后在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了平原水庫健康評價體系,該體系包括結(jié)構(gòu)安全、功能效益、生態(tài)環(huán)境和健康穩(wěn)定性4個一級指標以及14個二級指標,按照健康、亞健康、不健康、病態(tài)4個級別進行劃分,并確定了各指標標準特征值。針對平原水庫健康評價指標的模糊特性,選用可變模糊方法建立了平原水庫健康評價模型,并采用綜合賦權(quán)法計算各指標的權(quán)重。通過對2011~2015年丁東水庫健康狀況的評價表明本文構(gòu)建的平原水庫健康評價體系考慮的因素全面,評定等級劃分合理,劃分依據(jù)規(guī)范,可變模糊評價方法能夠很好地處理評價指標的模糊特性,并且評價結(jié)果準確、操作性強。
[Abstract]:Water resources are the important material basis of economic and social development and one of the most important strategic resources of a country. The shortage of water resources per capita and the uneven distribution of time and space in China have brought great challenges to the economic development and social progress of our country. In plain areas, one of the important measures to solve this problem is to build a certain number of plain reservoirs in areas where water resources are scarce, so as to realize the reallocation of water resources in time and space through the storage and discharge of water resources. It can effectively alleviate the increasingly severe contradiction between supply and demand of water resources. The plain reservoir construction in Shandong Province started early and developed rapidly, but there are some deficiencies in its operation and management. Based on the analysis of Dingdong reservoir, it is found that the deficiency is as follows: first, the operation and operation of plain reservoir is mainly based on empirical regulation, and the regulation function is relatively low, which makes it impossible to meet the requirement of guarantee rate of water supply design; Second, because of the limitation of science and technology conditions at that time, there are some problems such as low design standard, insufficient construction procedure and lack of consideration of ecological environment, which lead to risks in the operation and management of plain reservoir. There is no perfect evaluation system for evaluating the health status of plain reservoirs. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the main factors affecting the water yield of plain reservoir are analyzed, and the objective function is the minimum unit energy consumption in the operation period of the pumping station in the reservoir. The genetic algorithm is used to optimize the operation of historical data to obtain the data set of reservoir water lifting and dispatching. The current water storage situation and meteorological forecast information of plain reservoir are adopted. The decision tree C4.5 algorithm, which combines the actual operation of the reservoir for many years and the dispatcher's experience, extracts the decision tree of the water extraction regulation from the decision tree. The decision tree C4.5 algorithm is used to extract the decision tree of regulation rules in Dingdong Reservoir from 2002 to 2010. The results show that compared with the actual operation, the decision tree is verified by the data from 2011 to 2015. The former has the advantages of improving water supply guarantee rate, pumping station efficiency and reducing energy consumption, and has strong operational advantages over genetic algorithm. (2) the factors that affect the health of plain reservoir are considered comprehensively, and the former has the advantages of improving water supply guarantee rate and pumping station efficiency and reducing energy consumption. The definition of healthy plain reservoir is put forward. Then, the health evaluation system of plain reservoir is established. The system includes four first-order indexes: structural safety, functional benefit, ecological environment and health stability, and 14 secondary indexes, according to health, sub-health and unhealthy. The ill-conditioned four grades were divided and the standard eigenvalues of each index were determined. According to the fuzzy characteristic of plain reservoir health evaluation index, the variable fuzzy method is used to establish the plain reservoir health evaluation model, and the weight of each index is calculated by comprehensive weighting method. Through the evaluation of the health status of Dingdong Reservoir from 2011 to 2015, it is shown that the health evaluation system of plain reservoir constructed in this paper takes into account all the factors, the classification of assessment grades is reasonable, and the criteria for classification are reasonable. The variable fuzzy evaluation method can well deal with the fuzzy characteristics of the evaluation index, and the evaluation results are accurate and operational.
【學位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV697.1

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