【摘要】：針對(duì)降雨預(yù)報(bào)不確定性帶來的汛期預(yù)泄風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題,提出基于CFS預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品的水電站水庫預(yù)泄決策方法。利用CFS歷史預(yù)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù),建立不同預(yù)見期特定預(yù)報(bào)降雨條件下的實(shí)際降雨和入庫流量的概率分布,計(jì)算不同庫水位和發(fā)電決策組合下的棄水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率。在常規(guī)調(diào)度的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)CFS降雨預(yù)報(bào)信息,以棄水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率為決策依據(jù),以優(yōu)化的棄水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率閾值為預(yù)泄幅度的定量指標(biāo)進(jìn)行調(diào)度。實(shí)例研究表明,該方法簡(jiǎn)便易行,充分利用了降雨預(yù)報(bào)信息,在汛期可提供定量化預(yù)泄決策,兼顧了效益與風(fēng)險(xiǎn),達(dá)到了減小棄水的同時(shí)增大發(fā)電量的目的。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of flood season pre-discharge risk caused by uncertainty of rainfall forecast, a decision-making method for reservoir pre-discharge of hydropower station based on CFS forecast product is put forward. Based on the historical forecast data of CFS, the probability distribution of actual rainfall and inflow flow under different forecast periods is established, and the risk rate of abandoned water under the combination of different reservoir water level and power generation decision-making is calculated. On the basis of conventional scheduling, according to the CFS rainfall forecast information, the abandoned water risk rate is taken as the decision basis, and the optimized abandoned water risk threshold value is used as the quantitative index of the predischarge amplitude. The case study shows that the method is simple and easy to use, makes full use of rainfall forecast information, provides quantitative pre-discharge decision in flood season, takes into account both benefit and risk, and achieves the purpose of reducing abandoned water and increasing electricity generation.
【作者單位】： 大連理工大學(xué)水電與水信息研究所;錦州市氣象局;丹東市氣象局;
【基金】：國(guó)家高技術(shù)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃(863計(jì)劃)(2012AA050205) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51109024)
【分類號(hào)】：TV697.1
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本文編號(hào)：2440376