【摘要】：密云水庫作為北京市最重要的地表水水源地，對(duì)首都水安全和可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。近30年來，其水文情勢演變受人類活動(dòng)和氣候變化的影響日益增強(qiáng)，呈現(xiàn)出和以往歷史時(shí)期不同的特點(diǎn)。以密云水庫上游流域的下堡、三道營、張家墳、戴營和下會(huì)5個(gè)水文站控制的子流域?yàn)檠芯繉?duì)象，探討各子流域不同分級(jí)徑流在年代際的演變特點(diǎn)，綜合統(tǒng)計(jì)方法和模型方法揭示近30年密云水庫流域徑流演變的歸因規(guī)律，并嘗試采用流量歷時(shí)曲線和基流退水方程建立對(duì)不同分級(jí)徑流、特別是基流部分演變的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子進(jìn)行量化分析的途徑。主要結(jié)果如下： （1）在近50年徑流總體減少的大趨勢下，1980~2008年期間流域年徑流量先小幅增加后顯著減少，其中各子流域的汛期徑流量在2000年代均顯著減少，下堡子流域10月份徑流超過汛期徑流量。洪水流量與總徑流變化趨勢一致，枯水流量在不同子流域有不同的演變趨勢，三道營和戴營子流域2000年代流量歷時(shí)曲線的低流量部分上移。除年降雨總量外，降雨年內(nèi)分布尤其是大降雨對(duì)徑流變化亦有重要影響。 （2）基于改進(jìn)Budyko曲線的統(tǒng)計(jì)法和SWAT水文模型法的結(jié)果表明，1980年代到1990年代，氣候變化使徑流增加，作用強(qiáng)于土地利用變化的減水作用；1990年代到2000年代，氣候變化對(duì)徑流減少起主導(dǎo)作用，溝道上塘壩建設(shè)造成的蒸發(fā)增加亦對(duì)徑流減少有不可忽略的影響。 （3）利用改進(jìn)的Burr XII分布的四參數(shù)統(tǒng)計(jì)模型較好地模擬了各子流域的流量歷時(shí)曲線，，定性揭示了模型參數(shù)對(duì)氣候和土地利用變化的響應(yīng)規(guī)律，可進(jìn)一步應(yīng)用于歸因分析不同分級(jí)徑流演變的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子�；贐rutseart and Nieber（1977）方法對(duì)流域基流退水的分析表明，表征流域蓄水特性的參數(shù)n取定值1.28時(shí)，另一參數(shù)K的變化可定性反映蒸發(fā)和和人類活動(dòng)對(duì)退水的季節(jié)性影響。兩種方法的研究都為定量評(píng)價(jià)氣候變化和人類活動(dòng)對(duì)不同量級(jí)徑流變化的影響提供了新的途徑。
[Abstract]:As the most important source of surface water in Beijing, Miyun Reservoir is of great strategic significance for water security and sustainable development in the capital. In the past 30 years, its hydrological situation has been increasingly affected by human activities and climate change, showing different characteristics from previous historical periods. Taking the sub-watersheds controlled by five hydrological stations in the upper reaches of Miyun Reservoir, including Lower Fort, Sandaoying, Zhang Jiafen, Dai Ying and Xiahui, as the object of study, this paper discusses the inter-decadal evolution characteristics of different grades of runoff in each sub-basin. Comprehensive statistical method and model method are used to reveal the attribution law of runoff evolution in Miyun reservoir basin in recent 30 years, and try to establish different grade runoff by using discharge duration curve and basic flow regression equation. In particular, the driving factors of the partial evolution of the basic flow are quantitatively analyzed. The main results are as follows: (1) under the general trend of decreasing runoff in the last 50 years, the annual runoff increased slightly and then decreased significantly during 1980 / 2008, in which the runoff in flood season in all sub-basins decreased significantly in the 2000s. The runoff of Xiapao sub-basin in October exceeded the runoff in flood season. The variation trend of flood discharge and total runoff is consistent with that of total runoff. The low flow rate of Sandaoying and Dai Ying sub-basins moves up in the 2000s in different sub-basins, and the low-flow part of the discharge duration curve in the two sub-watersheds moves up in different sub-basins. In addition to annual rainfall, rainfall distribution during the year, especially heavy rainfall, also has an important impact on runoff variation. (2) the results of the statistical method based on the improved Budyko curve and the SWAT hydrological model method show that from 1980s to 1990s, the effect of climate change on runoff is stronger than that of land-use change on water reduction; From 1990's to 2000's, climate change played a leading role in runoff reduction, and the increase of evaporation caused by the construction of the upper channel pond dam also had an innegligible effect on runoff reduction. (3) using the improved four-parameter statistical model of Burr XII distribution, the discharge duration curves of each sub-basin are simulated well, and the response law of the model parameters to climate and land use change is revealed qualitatively. It can be further applied to attribution analysis of driving factors of runoff evolution in different grades. Based on the Brutseart and Nieber (1977) method, the results show that the variation of the other parameter K can qualitatively reflect the seasonal effects of evaporation and human activities on the backwater when the parameter n is 1.28, which is used to characterize the characteristics of the catchment water storage in the basin, and the variation of the other parameter K can reflect the seasonal effect of evaporation and human activities. The study of both methods provides a new way to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff of different magnitude.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P333

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