【摘要】：利用法國國家氣象研究中心氣候模型(Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model,CNRM)典型代表性濃度路徑(Representative Concentration Pathway,RCP)情景資料和可變下滲容量模型(Variable Infiltration Capacity Model,VIC),分析了淮河流域未來氣溫、降水、水資源及可能洪水的變化趨勢。結(jié)果表明,淮河流域未來氣溫將持續(xù)升高,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未來2021~2050年較基準期(1961~1990年)升幅分別約為1.13℃、1.10℃和1.35℃;流域降水可能呈現(xiàn)略微增加趨勢,3種排放情景下2021~2050年降水較基準期將分別增加5.81%、8.26%和6.94%;VIC模型在淮河流域具有較好的適用性,能較好地模擬淮河流域的水文過程,在率定期和檢驗期,模型對王家壩站和蚌埠站模擬的水量相對誤差都在5%以內(nèi),日徑流過程的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系數(shù)(NSE)在0.70以上,月徑流過程的NSE達到0.85以上。氣候變化將導(dǎo)致淮河流域水文循環(huán)強度增加,流域水資源總體將可能呈增加趨勢,王家壩站和蚌埠站斷面洪水事件的發(fā)生可能性將增大。
[Abstract]:The future temperature of the Huaihe River basin was analyzed by using the (Representative Concentration Pathway,RCP) scenario data of the typical representative concentration path of the climate model (Centre National de Recherches M 茅 t 茅 orologiques Climate Model,CNRM and the variable infiltration capacity model (Variable Infiltration Capacity Model,VIC) of the National Meteorological Research Center of France. Trends in precipitation, water resources and possible floods. The results show that the future temperature of Huaihe River Basin will continue to rise, and the increase of temperature in the future 2021 ~ 2050 is about 1.13 鈩，

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