【摘要】：當(dāng)今世界，水資源短缺問題成為制約全球大多數(shù)國家社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要因素。而水利水電工程興建是合理利用水資源的有效手段。在水庫興建過程中正常蓄水位的確定是一項(xiàng)必要且重要的課題。 本文以洪水的資源化為研究背景，通過多目標(biāo)決策及模糊聚類綜合評(píng)判方法確定水庫正常蓄水位，，主要進(jìn)行如下工作： 一、確定水庫正常蓄水位方案優(yōu)選的指標(biāo)體系。在系統(tǒng)地分析水庫正常蓄水位影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合實(shí)際工程確定水庫正常蓄水位影響評(píng)價(jià)內(nèi)容，建立起水庫正常蓄水位影響因素評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。 二、對(duì)正常蓄水位影響因素指標(biāo)進(jìn)行量化及無量綱化處理。本文通過梯形模糊數(shù)法進(jìn)行指標(biāo)的量化計(jì)算，尋找多方面的專家，聽取專家對(duì)于影響因素的評(píng)價(jià)，得到客觀、真實(shí)、可靠的定性指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)并進(jìn)行定量化處理。對(duì)于定量指標(biāo)，存在指標(biāo)量綱不一致、數(shù)值沒有可比性等因素的影響。本文首先確定每個(gè)影響因素的類型，分別定為效益型指標(biāo)、費(fèi)用型指標(biāo)、固定型指標(biāo)、區(qū)間型指標(biāo)等，通過插值法對(duì)定量的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行無量綱歸一化處理，得到量綱一致的數(shù)據(jù)。 三、運(yùn)用層次分析——灰色關(guān)聯(lián)法計(jì)算綜合權(quán)重。既體現(xiàn)了專家的主觀經(jīng)驗(yàn)及知識(shí)積累對(duì)影響因素權(quán)重的判斷，體現(xiàn)決策者主觀喜好；又從客觀角度判斷權(quán)重的大小，體現(xiàn)客觀規(guī)律對(duì)權(quán)重的影響。利用主觀賦權(quán)法與客觀賦權(quán)法相結(jié)合，克服了權(quán)重計(jì)算的片面性問題，是一種可靠性更高、更加準(zhǔn)確的計(jì)算權(quán)重的方法。 四、提出確定水庫正常蓄水位的多目標(biāo)模糊決策方法。本文將利用改進(jìn)的多目標(biāo)模糊決策方法對(duì)正常蓄水位的優(yōu)選進(jìn)行決策，將傳統(tǒng)的模糊決策與TOPSIS法結(jié)合進(jìn)行綜合決策，得到TOPSIS法評(píng)判結(jié)果與基本模糊決策結(jié)果進(jìn)行加權(quán)平均。提出模糊聚類綜合評(píng)判法確定水庫正常蓄水位。本文把模糊聚類綜合評(píng)判模型利用在水庫正常蓄水位優(yōu)選中，構(gòu)造目標(biāo)差值率矩陣，科學(xué)計(jì)算隸屬度，增加決策結(jié)果可靠性，并與多目標(biāo)模糊決策進(jìn)行共同驗(yàn)證。 五、采用多目標(biāo)模糊決策方法與模糊聚類綜合評(píng)判方法對(duì)某大型水庫進(jìn)行了水庫正常蓄水位方案的優(yōu)選。通過尋找每個(gè)正常蓄水位方案下影響因素的大小，運(yùn)用梯形模糊數(shù)進(jìn)行指標(biāo)量化，運(yùn)用層次分析——關(guān)聯(lián)度法計(jì)算綜合權(quán)重，運(yùn)用改進(jìn)的多目標(biāo)模糊決策與模糊聚類綜合評(píng)判進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，得到了正常蓄水位的最佳方案。所得結(jié)果與實(shí)際工程中運(yùn)用的正常蓄水位方案一致。
[Abstract]:In today's world, the shortage of water resources has become an important factor restricting the social and economic development of most countries in the world. The construction of water conservancy and hydropower project is an effective means to make rational use of water resources. It is necessary and important to determine the normal water level in the process of reservoir construction. In this paper, based on the resources of flood, the normal reservoir water level is determined by multi-objective decision making and fuzzy cluster comprehensive evaluation. The main work is as follows: first, the index system of optimal selection of reservoir normal storage level scheme is determined. Based on the systematic analysis of the influencing factors of the normal water level of the reservoir, the evaluation index system of the influence factors of the normal water level of the reservoir is established by combining with the actual project to determine the content of the evaluation of the influence factors of the normal water level of the reservoir. Second, quantitative and dimensionless treatment of the influencing factors of normal water level. In this paper, the quantitative calculation of indicators is carried out by trapezoidal fuzzy number method, and experts from various fields are searched for, and the evaluation of influencing factors by experts is listened to. The objective, true and reliable qualitative index data are obtained and the quantitative processing is carried out. For quantitative indicators, there are some factors such as inconsistent dimensionality and no comparability. In this paper, we first determine the types of each influencing factor, which are defined as benefit index, cost index, fixed index, interval index and so on. The dimensionless normalization of the quantitative index is carried out by interpolation method, and the dimensionally consistent data are obtained. Third, use the analytic hierarchy process-grey correlation method to calculate the comprehensive weight. It not only reflects the subjective experience of the expert and the judgment of the weight of the influencing factors, but also reflects the subjective preference of the decision makers, and judges the weight from the objective angle, and reflects the influence of the objective law on the weight. By combining subjective weight method with objective weighting method, the one-sidedness problem of weight calculation is overcome, and it is a more reliable and accurate method to calculate weight. 4. A multi-objective fuzzy decision-making method for determining the normal reservoir water level is put forward. In this paper, the improved multi-objective fuzzy decision method is used to make decision on the optimal selection of normal water level, and the traditional fuzzy decision making is combined with TOPSIS method for comprehensive decision making, and the weighted average between the evaluation result of TOPSIS method and the basic fuzzy decision result is obtained. A fuzzy cluster comprehensive evaluation method is proposed to determine the normal reservoir water level. In this paper, the fuzzy cluster comprehensive evaluation model is used to construct the target difference rate matrix in the optimal selection of the normal reservoir water level, to scientifically calculate the membership degree, to increase the reliability of the decision result, and to verify it with the multi-objective fuzzy decision making. Fifthly, the multi-objective fuzzy decision method and fuzzy cluster comprehensive evaluation method are used to select the normal water level of a large reservoir. By looking for the size of the influencing factors under each normal water level scheme, the trapezoidal fuzzy number is used to quantify the indexes, and the analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the comprehensive weight by using the method of correlation degree. The improved multi-objective fuzzy decision making and fuzzy clustering comprehensive evaluation are used to evaluate the optimal scheme of normal water level. The results are consistent with the normal water level scheme used in practical engineering.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV697.1

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