土石壩的安全風險評估研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-13 14:01
【摘要】：中國是世界上擁有大壩數(shù)量最多的國家，中國共建水庫大壩8.5萬座，土石壩占其中的93%。大多數(shù)的土石壩都是20世紀80年代以前建筑，由于受到當時技術(shù)的限制，很多土石壩的設(shè)計和施工都不完善，且都沒有經(jīng)過嚴格的質(zhì)量審查。經(jīng)過幾十年的運行，多數(shù)的土石壩都存在各種大大小小的病險，土石壩處于不同程度的病險狀態(tài)下運行，，危及到下游人民的生命財產(chǎn)和經(jīng)濟建設(shè)。為此需要對大壩的安全風險進行評估，判斷大壩是否處在安全的等級狀態(tài)下運行。論文的研究內(nèi)容及成果如下： (1)根據(jù)《水庫大壩安全評價導則》(SL258-2000)對大壩系統(tǒng)的分類，將大壩系統(tǒng)分為工程質(zhì)量、大壩運行管理、防洪標準復核、結(jié)構(gòu)安全、滲流安全、抗震安全復核、金屬結(jié)構(gòu)安全七個子系統(tǒng)，論文在《水庫大壩安全評價導則》的基礎(chǔ)上將土石壩風險指標細分為目標層、準則層和因素層，建立三層的土石壩風險指標體系，以便更全面和深入地研究土石壩安全風險狀況。 (2)對土石壩風險指標定量，論文依據(jù)《水庫大壩安全評價導則》中對各子系統(tǒng)的評價細節(jié)要求，制定了風險指標的定量標準。首先通過對風險指標的定性描述，結(jié)合專家經(jīng)驗法，最后完成對風險指標的定量。 (3)采用模糊層次分析法計算風險指標的權(quán)重值，再通過集對分析法和可變模糊集法對土石壩各級進行建模評估。首先參考《水庫大壩安全評價導則》和其他相關(guān)文獻，將土石壩安全風險評估分為五個安全等級；再分別以集對分析法和可變模糊集法對土石壩指標系統(tǒng)進行建模分析，計算出土石壩和各子系統(tǒng)的評估結(jié)果，分析各安全等級的評估結(jié)果，判斷土石壩處于什么安全級別。結(jié)合某實例水庫，計算得出實例土石壩安全風險等級與提供的水庫安全報告的安全級別一致，說明了集對分析法和可變模糊集法對土石壩的安全風險評估是合理和可行的，得出的評估結(jié)果對土石壩的運行管理有預警作用。
[Abstract]:China has the largest number of dams in the world, with 933 earth-rock dams accounting for 85000 dams. Most earth-rock dams were built before 1980s. Due to the limitation of technology at that time, the design and construction of many earth-rock dams are not perfect and have not been subjected to strict quality review. After several decades of operation, most earth and rock dams have a variety of hazards, large and small. The earth and rock dams run under different degrees of disease risk, endangering the lives and property of the downstream people and economic construction. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the safety risk of the dam and determine whether the dam is running under the safety grade. The research contents and results are as follows: (1) according to the classification of dam system by SL258-2000, the dam system is divided into engineering quality, dam operation management, flood control standard review. Structural safety, seepage safety, seismic safety review and metal structure safety are seven subsystems. On the basis of "dam safety evaluation guidelines for reservoirs", the risk index of earth-rock dams is divided into target layer, criterion layer and factor layer. In order to study the safety risk of earth-rock dam more comprehensively and deeply, the risk index system of three layers earth and rock dam is established. (2) for the risk index of earth-rock dam, the quantitative standard of risk index is established according to the detailed evaluation requirements of each subsystem in the "guidelines for dam safety evaluation of reservoirs". Firstly, the quantitative analysis of risk index is finished by qualitative description of risk index and expert experience. (3) using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to calculate the weight value of risk index, and then using set pair analysis method and variable fuzzy set method to model and evaluate each grade of earth-rock dam. Firstly, the safety risk assessment of earth-rock dam is divided into five safety grades by referring to "guidelines for dam safety evaluation" and other relevant documents. Then the index system of earth-rock dam is modeled and analyzed by set pair analysis method and variable fuzzy set method, the evaluation results of earth and rock dam and each subsystem are calculated, the evaluation results of each safety grade are analyzed, and the safety level of earth-rock dam is judged. Combined with an example reservoir, the safety risk grade of earth-rock dam is consistent with that of the reservoir safety report, which shows that the assessment of safety risk of earth-rock dam by the method of set pair analysis and variable fuzzy set is reasonable and feasible. The result of evaluation has early warning effect on operation and management of earth-rock dam.
【學位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV641;TV698.1
本文編號：2376658
[Abstract]:China has the largest number of dams in the world, with 933 earth-rock dams accounting for 85000 dams. Most earth-rock dams were built before 1980s. Due to the limitation of technology at that time, the design and construction of many earth-rock dams are not perfect and have not been subjected to strict quality review. After several decades of operation, most earth and rock dams have a variety of hazards, large and small. The earth and rock dams run under different degrees of disease risk, endangering the lives and property of the downstream people and economic construction. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the safety risk of the dam and determine whether the dam is running under the safety grade. The research contents and results are as follows: (1) according to the classification of dam system by SL258-2000, the dam system is divided into engineering quality, dam operation management, flood control standard review. Structural safety, seepage safety, seismic safety review and metal structure safety are seven subsystems. On the basis of "dam safety evaluation guidelines for reservoirs", the risk index of earth-rock dams is divided into target layer, criterion layer and factor layer. In order to study the safety risk of earth-rock dam more comprehensively and deeply, the risk index system of three layers earth and rock dam is established. (2) for the risk index of earth-rock dam, the quantitative standard of risk index is established according to the detailed evaluation requirements of each subsystem in the "guidelines for dam safety evaluation of reservoirs". Firstly, the quantitative analysis of risk index is finished by qualitative description of risk index and expert experience. (3) using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to calculate the weight value of risk index, and then using set pair analysis method and variable fuzzy set method to model and evaluate each grade of earth-rock dam. Firstly, the safety risk assessment of earth-rock dam is divided into five safety grades by referring to "guidelines for dam safety evaluation" and other relevant documents. Then the index system of earth-rock dam is modeled and analyzed by set pair analysis method and variable fuzzy set method, the evaluation results of earth and rock dam and each subsystem are calculated, the evaluation results of each safety grade are analyzed, and the safety level of earth-rock dam is judged. Combined with an example reservoir, the safety risk grade of earth-rock dam is consistent with that of the reservoir safety report, which shows that the assessment of safety risk of earth-rock dam by the method of set pair analysis and variable fuzzy set is reasonable and feasible. The result of evaluation has early warning effect on operation and management of earth-rock dam.
【學位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV641;TV698.1
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