【摘要】：水庫大壩具有蓄水發(fā)電、防洪防澇以及灌溉航運(yùn)等作用,但同時(shí)水庫大壩一旦潰決,其造成的危害也是巨大的。由于土石壩的優(yōu)越性,其在我國乃至世界的壩堤建設(shè)中具有重要地位。由于外部條件改變、壩體結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)缺陷等原因,日益凸顯的土石壩安全性問題不可忽視。安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)研究可評價(jià)出土石壩的安全狀態(tài),進(jìn)而為水庫大壩的安全管理與除險(xiǎn)加固工作提供指導(dǎo),保證土石壩的安全運(yùn)行,保障人民的生命和財(cái)產(chǎn)安全。本文詳細(xì)剖析了國內(nèi)外水庫大壩安全管理方法,總結(jié)了我國潰壩事故特點(diǎn),對土石壩存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析,辨識(shí)出土石壩病險(xiǎn)的影響因子,并根據(jù)每個(gè)影響因子之間的層次關(guān)系,構(gòu)建出土石壩安全評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,再根據(jù)土石壩安全評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系建立土石壩安全評價(jià)模型,進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估。在土石壩安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)中,數(shù)據(jù)有限且充滿模糊性和隨機(jī)性,很難從這樣的數(shù)據(jù)中得到量化的評價(jià)結(jié)果,現(xiàn)有的土石壩安全評價(jià)理論方法往往忽略了評價(jià)過程的不確定性。由于影響因子對于評價(jià)對象的影響程度不同,每個(gè)影響因子都有自己的權(quán)重,也有自己的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度,傳統(tǒng)的層次分析法雖能表征影響因子的權(quán)重,但不能正確地表現(xiàn)判斷的模糊性和隨機(jī)性,而云模型可以彌補(bǔ)這個(gè)缺陷,針對傳統(tǒng)的層次分析法的不足,將云模型應(yīng)用到土石壩老化安全評價(jià)中,建立起基于AHP-云模型的土石壩老化安全評價(jià)模型,通過實(shí)例證明該方法可行有效。由于我國病險(xiǎn)土石壩眾多,不可能在同一時(shí)間對所有的病險(xiǎn)大壩進(jìn)行除險(xiǎn)加固,因此需要按照病險(xiǎn)和重要程度對水庫進(jìn)行合理排序,優(yōu)先安排與防洪保安關(guān)系密切的水庫的除險(xiǎn)加固,但如何科學(xué)排序,目前尚未有定論。本文在已有的水庫大壩安全排序研究基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了水庫大壩安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)排序體系,運(yùn)用主成分分析法,對15個(gè)大壩的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,得出了15座大壩的安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)排序,證實(shí)技術(shù)上的可行性和有效性。最后,根據(jù)計(jì)算結(jié)果判斷出病險(xiǎn)大壩,并對病險(xiǎn)大壩安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行排序,為水庫大壩除險(xiǎn)加固決策提供可靠依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Reservoir dam has the functions of water storage and power generation, flood control and waterlogging control, irrigation and shipping, but once the reservoir dam collapses, the damage caused by the dam is also great. Because of the superiority of earth-rock dam, it plays an important role in the construction of embankment in our country and even in the world. Due to the change of external conditions and defects in dam structure design, the increasingly prominent safety problems of earth-rock dams can not be ignored. The study of safety risk assessment can evaluate the safety state of earth-rock dam, and then provide guidance for the safety management and reinforcement of reservoir dam, ensure the safe operation of earth-rock dam, and guarantee the safety of people's life and property. This paper analyzes the methods of dam safety management at home and abroad, summarizes the characteristics of dam break accidents in China, analyzes the risk mechanism of earth and rock dams, and identifies the influencing factors of earth and rock dams. According to the hierarchical relationship between each influencing factor, the safety evaluation index system of earth-rock dam is constructed, and then the safety evaluation model of earth-rock dam is established according to the index system of earth-rock dam safety evaluation, and the risk assessment is carried out. In the safety risk assessment of earth-rock dams, the data are limited, fuzzy and random, so it is difficult to obtain the quantitative evaluation results from such data. The existing theoretical methods of safety evaluation of earth-rock dams often ignore the uncertainty of the evaluation process. Because the influence factor has its own weight and its own risk degree, the traditional analytic hierarchy process can represent the weight of the influence factor. However, the fuzzy and randomness of the judgment can not be correctly expressed, and the cloud model can make up for this defect. In view of the deficiency of the traditional analytic hierarchy process, the cloud model is applied to the evaluation of the aging safety of the earth-rock dam. A safety evaluation model for earth-rock dam aging based on AHP- cloud model is established. Examples show that the method is feasible and effective. Because there are so many earth and rock dams in our country, it is impossible to reinforce all the dams at the same time, so it is necessary to arrange the reservoirs reasonably according to the risk of disease and the degree of importance. Priority is given to the reinforcement of reservoirs which are closely related to flood control and security, but how to sort them scientifically has not yet been decided. In this paper, based on the existing research on dam safety ranking, the system of dam safety risk ranking is constructed. The data of 15 dams are analyzed by principal component analysis method, and the safety risk ranking of 15 dams is obtained. Verify technical feasibility and effectiveness. Finally, the dangerous dam is judged according to the calculation results, and the safety risk of the dam is ranked, which provides a reliable basis for the decision-making of dam reinforcement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TV641;TV698

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