【摘要】：由于大壩安全監(jiān)測對含有不確定性信息效應(yīng)量的預(yù)測精度要求越來越高,常規(guī)模型已經(jīng)滿足不了監(jiān)控需求,為此,對常規(guī)的復(fù)合不確定模型進行了改進:考慮到監(jiān)測樣本信息的不足,分配函數(shù)用考慮信息增量的二次型代替線型;考慮到隸屬度隨自變量的變化有一定規(guī)律,模糊推理的矩陣運算用貼近度推理替代Max-Min推理,以期提高模型精度;采用綜合有效度對建模的結(jié)果進行評價。實例分析表明,優(yōu)化后的不確定模型有效提高了擬合和預(yù)測精度,為利用不確定信息對大壩安全進行分析提供了更為精確的手段。
[Abstract]:Because the precision of dam safety monitoring with uncertain information effect is more and more high, the conventional model can not meet the monitoring demand. The conventional compound uncertainty model is improved: considering the shortage of monitoring sample information, the distribution function replaces the linear type with the quadratic form considering the information increment; Considering that the degree of membership varies with independent variables, the matrix operation of fuzzy reasoning replaces Max-Min reasoning with closeness degree reasoning, in order to improve the accuracy of the model, the comprehensive validity degree is used to evaluate the results of modeling. The example analysis shows that the optimized uncertain model can effectively improve the precision of fitting and prediction and provide a more accurate means for the analysis of dam safety by using uncertain information.
【作者單位】： 河海大學(xué)水文水資源與水利工程科學(xué)國家重點實驗室;河海大學(xué)水資源高效利用與工程安全國家工程研究中心;河海大學(xué)水利水電學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(51279052) 水文水資源與水利工程科學(xué)國家重點實驗室研究項目(20145028312)
【分類號】：TV698.1
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本文編號：2332452