【摘要】：本文以泗河流域?yàn)檠芯繀^(qū),采用SWAT構(gòu)建流域模型,經(jīng)過模型敏感性分析和適用性評(píng)價(jià),將校準(zhǔn)好的模型應(yīng)用到泗河流域陸水相互作用研究中。具體研究思路為：一是設(shè)置未來(lái)不同氣候變化情景來(lái)討論氣候變化引起的流域徑流變化趨勢(shì),即氣候變化(主要指氣溫和降雨兩個(gè)因素的變化)與水文響應(yīng)關(guān)系；二是對(duì)比分析不同時(shí)期土地利用情況下的徑流變化趨勢(shì),即土地利用變化與水文響應(yīng)關(guān)系。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)比分析氣候因素與土地利用因素對(duì)流域徑流的影響程度,探討研究流域水文循環(huán)過程以及驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)理,為泗河流域水資源保護(hù)與生態(tài)建設(shè)工作提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。本次研究得出以下重要結(jié)論：(1)通過SWAT敏感性分析,獲知泗河流域徑流模擬過程中比較敏感的參數(shù)：正常濕潤(rùn)情況下植被覆蓋值、土壤蒸發(fā)補(bǔ)償系數(shù)、土壤有效含水量等。經(jīng)校準(zhǔn)后的各參數(shù)范圍如下：CN2(73～82)；ESCO=0.98；SOL AWC(0.04～0.2)； GW_REVAP=0.02；GWQMN=0；REVAPMN=1.(2)分析各氣候情景下的流域年均徑流的變化,可知泗河流域年均徑流隨著氣溫的升高而減少,但變幅較小,每增加1℃流域徑流約減少1.8%；隨著流域年均降雨量的增大而增大,年均降雨量每增加10%,其年徑流約增加15.04%；隨著流域年均降雨量的減少而減小,年均降雨量每減少10%,其年總徑流減小約10.82%。可見年均降雨量是影響流域徑流的重要因素,與氣溫變化結(jié)果相比,流域徑流受降雨量影響大于氣溫變化。 (3)對(duì)比不同時(shí)期土地利用情況下的流域徑流變化,得出如下結(jié)論：1980、1995和2000年三期土地利用情況下流域年均徑流基本沒區(qū)別,月尺度上的徑流變化也非常小,同時(shí)徑流的月際分布也較一致,因此,在1980～2000年之間泗河流域內(nèi)土地利用變化對(duì)流域徑流影響不明顯。 對(duì)比不同氣候情景和土地利用變化下的徑流變化結(jié)果,本文最終得出的結(jié)論是氣候是影響流域徑流的主要因素,研究區(qū)該時(shí)間段內(nèi)土地利用變化的影響沒有氣候因素影響明顯。因此,在日后的泗河流域水資源管理中應(yīng)注意氣候變化趨勢(shì)并采取相應(yīng)的管理措施,以促進(jìn)泗河流域水生態(tài)環(huán)境的健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the Sihe river basin is used as the study area, and SWAT is used to construct the watershed model. Through the sensitivity analysis and applicability evaluation of the model, the calibrated model is applied to the study of the land-water interaction in the Sihe River basin. The specific research ideas are as follows: first, setting up different climate change scenarios in the future to discuss the changing trend of runoff caused by climate change, that is, the relationship between climate change (mainly the change of temperature and rainfall) and hydrological response; The second is to compare and analyze the trend of runoff change in different periods of land use, that is, the relationship between land use change and hydrological response. On this basis, the impacts of climate factors and land use factors on runoff are compared and analyzed, and the hydrological cycle process and driving mechanism of river basin are studied, which provides scientific basis for the protection of water resources and ecological construction in Sihe River Basin. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) through SWAT sensitivity analysis, the more sensitive parameters of runoff simulation in Sihe River Basin are obtained, such as vegetation cover value under normal humid conditions, soil evaporation compensation coefficient, soil available water content and so on. The range of calibrated parameters is as follows: CN2 (73 / 82); ESCO=0.98;SOL AWC (0. 04 / 0. 2); GW_REVAP=0.02;GWQMN=0; REVAPMN=1. (2) shows that the annual runoff decreases with the increase of air temperature in Sihe River Basin, but the variation is small, and the annual runoff decreases by 1.8% with each increase of 1 鈩，

本文編號(hào)：2325937