廬江縣水資源承載力及配置研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-20 19:43
【摘要】：水是生命之源,是社會與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不可或缺的基礎資源,具有自然、社會、經(jīng)濟等多重屬性。水資源開發(fā)利用與保護直接關系到經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展、生態(tài)環(huán)境改善和廣大人民群眾的健康與生命安全。近年來,隨著社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和城市化進程的加快以及人口的迅猛增長,用水量和污水排放量不斷增加,水資源開發(fā)與社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、生態(tài)環(huán)境保護之間的不協(xié)調(diào)十分突出,水資源已將逐步成為社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與生態(tài)環(huán)境保護的“瓶頸”。目前對水資源承載力及水資源配置的研究主要集中在省域或市域,對于縣域內(nèi)的研究成果較少。相較省域和市域來看,縣域內(nèi)對于水資源的開發(fā)利用及分配更加具體,研究對象也更加多元化。本文以廬江縣為研究區(qū),在充分收集現(xiàn)有資料的基礎上,進行了大量的實地調(diào)研,對廬江縣的水資源承載力及配置進行了研究。論文主要研究內(nèi)容與成果如下:(1)建立了基于可拓云理論的水資源承載力綜合評價模型,引入了級別變量特征值,并定義了弱載度的概念。級別變量特征值可對綜合判定等級進行補充分析;通過弱載度進行弱載因子的篩選,可直可觀地對削弱水資源承載力的指標進行識別。(2)對廬江縣2010年~2014年的水資源承載力進行了定量分析,并結合雷達圖及Arcgis繪制的分布圖等形式進行了橫、縱向?qū)Ρ取＝Y果表明,近幾年其水資源開發(fā)利用程度、水環(huán)境狀況、社會發(fā)展狀況及經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況都有不同程度的進步,呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)步發(fā)展的態(tài)勢,現(xiàn)狀廬江縣水資源承載力處于一般承載水平,社會經(jīng)濟與水資源的發(fā)展較為協(xié)調(diào),要注意在發(fā)展的過程中提高生活、工業(yè)的節(jié)水意識,并重視縣域內(nèi)的耗水情況及生態(tài)環(huán)境用水情況,實現(xiàn)水資源的可持續(xù)利用。(3)采用綜合性水資源數(shù)學模擬軟件MIKE HYDRO中的BASIN模塊,建立廬江縣水資源配置模型,進行了規(guī)劃年三次供需平衡的模擬、分析。結果表明,三次供需平衡條件下,研究區(qū)規(guī)劃年缺水量大幅降低,但枯水年份仍存在較大缺口,2030年廬江縣95%保證率下缺水量為4.32億m3,必須積極尋求境外水源,同時開展節(jié)水型社會建設,全面提高用水效率,治污挖潛,開源與節(jié)流并舉,才能從根本上解決廬江縣的缺水問題。(4)采用可拓云模型對規(guī)劃年水資源配置后的承載力進行了評價,評價結果表明,在規(guī)劃條件下,規(guī)劃年水資源承載力與2014年一致,均為一般承載情況,較弱承載指標主要分布在準則層水資源開發(fā)利用程度的各個指標內(nèi),在社會經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)步發(fā)展的過程中水資源承載空間未出現(xiàn)明顯下降趨勢,生態(tài)環(huán)境得到進一步重視,水資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展的趨勢較好。
[Abstract]:Water is the source of life and an indispensable basic resource for social and economic development. It has many attributes, such as nature, society and economy. The exploitation and protection of water resources are directly related to the development of economy and society, the improvement of ecological environment and the health and safety of the people. In recent years, with the development of social economy, the acceleration of urbanization process and the rapid growth of population, the amount of water used and the discharge of sewage have been increasing continuously. The incoordination between water resources development and social and economic development, and the protection of ecological environment is very prominent. Water resources will gradually become the bottleneck of social economic development and ecological environment protection. At present, the research on water resources carrying capacity and water resources allocation is mainly focused on the province or the city, but the research results of the county area are less. Compared with provinces and cities, the development, utilization and distribution of water resources in county areas are more specific, and the research objects are more diversified. This paper takes Lujiang County as the research area, on the basis of fully collecting the existing data, carries out a lot of field investigation, and studies the carrying capacity and allocation of water resources in Lujiang County. The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) the comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on extension cloud theory is established, and the eigenvalue of grade variables is introduced, and the concept of weak load degree is defined. The eigenvalue of the class variable can be used to supplement the comprehensive judgment grade, and the weak load factor can be screened by the weak load degree. (2) quantitative analysis of water resources carrying capacity from 2010 to 2014 is carried out in Lujiang County, and horizontal and vertical comparison is made in combination with radar map and distribution map drawn by Arcgis. The results show that in recent years, the development and utilization of water resources, the water environment, the social development and the economic development have made progress in different degrees, showing a steady trend of development. The carrying capacity of water resources in Lujiang County is at the general carrying capacity level, and the development of social economy and water resources is relatively coordinated. Attention should be paid to raising the consciousness of saving water in life and industry during the process of development. In order to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources, the water consumption and ecological water use in the county area are emphasized. (3) the water resources allocation model of Lujiang County is established by using the BASIN module of MIKE HYDRO, a comprehensive mathematical simulation software for water resources. The simulation and analysis of supply and demand balance of three times in planning year are carried out. The results show that under the condition of the balance of supply and demand, the annual water shortage in the study area is greatly reduced, but there is still a big gap in the dry year. Under the guarantee rate of 95% in Lujiang County in 2030, the water shortage is 432 million m3, so it is necessary to actively seek overseas water sources. At the same time, we should carry out the construction of water-saving society, comprehensively improve the efficiency of water use, harness pollution and tap potential. Finally, the problem of water shortage in Lujiang County can be solved fundamentally. (4) the capacity of water resources allocation in planning year is evaluated by using extension cloud model. The evaluation results show that the capacity of water resources in planning year is the same as that in 2014. The weak bearing index is mainly distributed in each index of the water resources exploitation and utilization degree in the criterion layer, and there is no obvious downward trend in the carrying space of water resources during the steady development of social economy. Further attention has been paid to the ecological environment, and the trend of sustainable development of water resources is better.
【學位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV213.4
本文編號：2284194
[Abstract]:Water is the source of life and an indispensable basic resource for social and economic development. It has many attributes, such as nature, society and economy. The exploitation and protection of water resources are directly related to the development of economy and society, the improvement of ecological environment and the health and safety of the people. In recent years, with the development of social economy, the acceleration of urbanization process and the rapid growth of population, the amount of water used and the discharge of sewage have been increasing continuously. The incoordination between water resources development and social and economic development, and the protection of ecological environment is very prominent. Water resources will gradually become the bottleneck of social economic development and ecological environment protection. At present, the research on water resources carrying capacity and water resources allocation is mainly focused on the province or the city, but the research results of the county area are less. Compared with provinces and cities, the development, utilization and distribution of water resources in county areas are more specific, and the research objects are more diversified. This paper takes Lujiang County as the research area, on the basis of fully collecting the existing data, carries out a lot of field investigation, and studies the carrying capacity and allocation of water resources in Lujiang County. The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) the comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on extension cloud theory is established, and the eigenvalue of grade variables is introduced, and the concept of weak load degree is defined. The eigenvalue of the class variable can be used to supplement the comprehensive judgment grade, and the weak load factor can be screened by the weak load degree. (2) quantitative analysis of water resources carrying capacity from 2010 to 2014 is carried out in Lujiang County, and horizontal and vertical comparison is made in combination with radar map and distribution map drawn by Arcgis. The results show that in recent years, the development and utilization of water resources, the water environment, the social development and the economic development have made progress in different degrees, showing a steady trend of development. The carrying capacity of water resources in Lujiang County is at the general carrying capacity level, and the development of social economy and water resources is relatively coordinated. Attention should be paid to raising the consciousness of saving water in life and industry during the process of development. In order to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources, the water consumption and ecological water use in the county area are emphasized. (3) the water resources allocation model of Lujiang County is established by using the BASIN module of MIKE HYDRO, a comprehensive mathematical simulation software for water resources. The simulation and analysis of supply and demand balance of three times in planning year are carried out. The results show that under the condition of the balance of supply and demand, the annual water shortage in the study area is greatly reduced, but there is still a big gap in the dry year. Under the guarantee rate of 95% in Lujiang County in 2030, the water shortage is 432 million m3, so it is necessary to actively seek overseas water sources. At the same time, we should carry out the construction of water-saving society, comprehensively improve the efficiency of water use, harness pollution and tap potential. Finally, the problem of water shortage in Lujiang County can be solved fundamentally. (4) the capacity of water resources allocation in planning year is evaluated by using extension cloud model. The evaluation results show that the capacity of water resources in planning year is the same as that in 2014. The weak bearing index is mainly distributed in each index of the water resources exploitation and utilization degree in the criterion layer, and there is no obvious downward trend in the carrying space of water resources during the steady development of social economy. Further attention has been paid to the ecological environment, and the trend of sustainable development of water resources is better.
【學位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV213.4
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