【摘要】：生態(tài)需水是流域水資源分配中的重要組成部分,是保證流域生態(tài)系統(tǒng)健康穩(wěn)定、正常發(fā)揮的基本需水量。在現(xiàn)代生產(chǎn)生活需水量越來(lái)越大的條件下,很多區(qū)域出現(xiàn)了生產(chǎn)生活需水大量擠占生態(tài)需水的情況。因此,研究流域生態(tài)需水量,保證流域生態(tài)需水量可以達(dá)到一定生態(tài)要求,是進(jìn)行流域水資源合理分配的重要條件。 湖北省境內(nèi)的漢江流域工農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)達(dá)、人口集聚度高,流域內(nèi)的水資源相對(duì)比較豐富。但是受南水北調(diào)中線工程的影響,流域內(nèi)的來(lái)水量會(huì)有所減少,那么流域的生態(tài)需水量勢(shì)必也會(huì)受到影響,進(jìn)而影響流域的生態(tài)環(huán)境健康。因此,本文設(shè)置了調(diào)水和不調(diào)水兩種情景,分別研究這兩種不同情景下流域未來(lái)的生態(tài)需水量,并對(duì)研究結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比,比較其差異。 本文關(guān)于生態(tài)需水量的計(jì)算是以未來(lái)各土地利用類(lèi)型的面積為基礎(chǔ),因此,首先必須對(duì)流域內(nèi)未來(lái)的土地利用變化進(jìn)行模擬。土地利用變化的模擬基于CLUE-S模型,該模型對(duì)中小尺度土地利用的模擬具有較高準(zhǔn)確性。利用模型,在調(diào)水和不調(diào)水兩種情景下模擬了未來(lái)30年6大土地利用類(lèi)型的變化情況,其主要的步驟有：在Arcgis平臺(tái)上對(duì)CLUE-S模型所需的數(shù)據(jù)處理后,利用CLUE-S模型自帶的轉(zhuǎn)換工具,將所有數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)換為模型可以識(shí)別的ASCII文件,再將模型所需的所有文件放入模型文件夾下,運(yùn)行模型,得出兩種情景下未來(lái)30年的土地利用情況。將得出的結(jié)果再放入Arcgis中,轉(zhuǎn)換為土地利用圖。 根據(jù)模擬結(jié)果,對(duì)流域生態(tài)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行分類(lèi),主要分為林地、草地、農(nóng)田、城鎮(zhèn)和水域這五大類(lèi)。其中林地、草地和農(nóng)田系統(tǒng)根據(jù)模型模擬的土地利用面積計(jì)算生態(tài)需水量,城鎮(zhèn)系統(tǒng)的生態(tài)需水量以公共綠地面積為主,水域系統(tǒng)生態(tài)需水量的計(jì)算則主要利用Tennant法和最小月平均徑流量法。在計(jì)算出各子系統(tǒng)的生態(tài)需水量后,根據(jù)生態(tài)需水整合原則,整合出整個(gè)流域系統(tǒng)的生態(tài)需水量。本研究的結(jié)論主要如下： (1)模型模擬結(jié)果顯示,在預(yù)設(shè)的兩種情景下,研究區(qū)未來(lái)的耕地和建設(shè)用地都表現(xiàn)為增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),林地、水域和未利用地都表現(xiàn)為減少的趨勢(shì),草地則沒(méi)有發(fā)生變化,但調(diào)水情景的土地面積變化幅度明顯小于不調(diào)水情景。 (2)在各大系統(tǒng)中,水域系統(tǒng)生態(tài)需水量最大,其次是農(nóng)田系統(tǒng)和林地系統(tǒng),這三大系統(tǒng)是流域生態(tài)需水的最主要類(lèi)型。水域系統(tǒng)生態(tài)需水量的大小直接決定了整個(gè)流域生態(tài)需水量的大小。 (3)兩種情景相比,不調(diào)水情景下,流域整體的生態(tài)需水量隨著時(shí)間的推移緩慢增加,即未來(lái)流域生態(tài)需水量的需求不斷增多；調(diào)水情景下,流域未來(lái)的生態(tài)需水量隨著時(shí)間的推移大幅減少。即南水北調(diào)工程實(shí)施后,流域的生態(tài)需水量將會(huì)大幅減少。這樣的結(jié)果表明,調(diào)水工程的實(shí)施會(huì)對(duì)整個(gè)流域生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的安全性,穩(wěn)定程度帶來(lái)較大威脅。
[Abstract]:Ecological water demand is an important part of the allocation of water resources in the basin, and it is the basic water demand to ensure the healthy and stable ecosystem of the basin. Under the condition of increasing water demand in modern production and life, the production and living water demand accounts for ecological water demand in many areas. Therefore, it is an important condition for the rational allocation of water resources to study the ecological water demand of the watershed to ensure that the ecological water demand of the basin can reach a certain ecological requirement. The Hanjiang River basin in Hubei Province is developed in industry and agriculture with high population concentration and relatively abundant water resources. However, due to the influence of the South-to-North Water transfer Project, the amount of water in the basin will decrease, so the ecological water demand of the basin will also be affected, which will affect the ecological environment of the basin. Therefore, this paper sets up two scenarios of water transfer and non-water transfer, studies the future ecological water demand of the watershed under these two different scenarios, and compares the results of the study and compares their differences. In this paper, the calculation of ecological water demand is based on the area of each land use type in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to simulate the future land use change in the watershed. The simulation of land use change is based on CLUE-S model, which has high accuracy for the simulation of small and medium scale land use. The model is used to simulate the changes of the six major land use types in the next 30 years under the two scenarios of water transfer and no water transfer. The main steps are as follows: after processing the data needed for the CLUE-S model on the Arcgis platform, using the conversion tools brought with the CLUE-S model. All the data are converted into ASCII files which can be recognized by the model, and then all the files required by the model are put into the model folder to run the model, and the land use in the next 30 years under the two scenarios is obtained. The results are then put into Arcgis and converted into land use maps. According to the simulation results, the watershed ecosystem is classified into five categories: woodland, grassland, farmland, town and water area. The ecological water demand of woodland, grassland and farmland system is calculated according to the land use area simulated by the model, and the ecological water demand of urban system is mainly public green space area. The Tennant method and the minimum monthly average runoff method are used to calculate the ecological water demand of the water system. After calculating the ecological water demand of each subsystem, the ecological water demand of the whole watershed system is integrated according to the principle of ecological water demand integration. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) the model simulation results show that the future cultivated land and construction land in the study area are increasing trend under the two scenarios. Both the water area and the unused land showed a decreasing trend, while the grassland did not change, but the range of land area change in the water transfer scenario was obviously smaller than that in the non-water transfer scenario. (2) among the major systems, the water system had the largest ecological water demand. Secondly, farmland system and woodland system, which are the most important types of ecological water demand. The water system ecological water demand directly determines the whole watershed ecological water demand. (3) compared with the non-water transfer scenario, the whole watershed ecological water demand increases slowly with the passage of time. That is to say, the demand of future watershed ecological water demand is increasing continuously; under the water transfer scenario, the future ecological water demand of the basin will decrease significantly with the passage of time. That is, after the implementation of the South-to-North Water transfer Project, the ecological water demand of the watershed will be greatly reduced. The results show that the implementation of the water transfer project will threaten the security and stability of the whole watershed ecosystem.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV213.4;X143

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