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尼爾基水庫(kù)入庫(kù)洪水預(yù)報(bào)及誤差分析

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-10-14 19:19
【摘要】:洪水災(zāi)害是世界上最為嚴(yán)重自然災(zāi)害的之一,給人民的生產(chǎn)生活和社會(huì)的發(fā)展帶來(lái)了很不好的影響。洪水預(yù)報(bào)是非常重要的防洪減災(zāi)的非工程措施,因此探索適合各地區(qū)精準(zhǔn)的洪水預(yù)報(bào)方法就顯得很重要。尼爾基水庫(kù)是嫩江干流上的控制性的水利樞紐工程,水庫(kù)控制流域的下墊面條件及其降雨分布非常不均勻。因此,產(chǎn)匯流條件非常復(fù)雜,河道內(nèi)的水流不僅要受到上游來(lái)水的作用,而且還受到下游回水的頂托以及其它支流等因素的影響。在傳統(tǒng)的流域水文模型中,河網(wǎng)匯流部分無(wú)法對(duì)這些影響因素進(jìn)行詳細(xì)描述,從而導(dǎo)致流域出口斷面的洪水預(yù)報(bào)精度降低。針對(duì)這個(gè)問(wèn)題,本文以尼爾基水庫(kù)控制流域?yàn)檠芯繉?duì)象,利用丹麥水資源與水環(huán)境研究所研制的DHI MIKE系列軟件中的MIKE11模型,建立尼爾基控制流域一維水動(dòng)力HD模型和降雨徑流NAM模型的耦合模型。模型考慮河道的水流運(yùn)動(dòng)物理機(jī)制,依據(jù)圣維南方程組求解得到河道內(nèi)不同斷面的流量和水位,盡可能地反映流域匯流真實(shí)情況;應(yīng)用流域內(nèi)的降雨站,水文站實(shí)測(cè)的流量、水位和降雨資料進(jìn)行參數(shù)率定與模型驗(yàn)證。模擬結(jié)果表明,MIKE11模型的HD模塊和NAM模塊的耦合模型可以對(duì)尼爾基控制流域降雨徑流、河網(wǎng)水流進(jìn)行較好的模擬,為尼爾基水庫(kù)防洪調(diào)度提供水文資料預(yù)測(cè)的技術(shù)支持。
[Abstract]:Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world, which has brought bad influence to the production and life of people and the development of society. Flood forecasting is a very important non-engineering measure for flood control and disaster reduction, so it is very important to explore accurate flood forecasting methods suitable for various regions. The Nierji Reservoir is a controlled water conservancy project on the Nenjiang River main stream. The underlying surface conditions and rainfall distribution of the reservoir control basin are very uneven. Therefore, the conditions of runoff generation and confluence are very complicated, and the flow in the channel is affected not only by the upstream water, but also by the top support and other tributaries of the downstream backwater. In the traditional watershed hydrological model, the confluence part of the river network can not describe these factors in detail, which leads to the decrease of flood forecast precision of the watershed outlet section. In order to solve this problem, this paper takes the Nierji reservoir control basin as the research object and uses the MIKE11 model in the DHI MIKE software developed by the Danish Institute of Water Resources and Water Environment. The coupling model of one dimensional hydrodynamic HD model and rainfall runoff NAM model is established. The model takes into account the physical mechanism of river flow movement and obtains the discharge and water level of different sections of the river according to the San Venan equations, which reflects as much as possible the real situation of river basin confluence, and applies the actual volume of rainfall stations and hydrologic stations in the river basin. The parameters of water level and rainfall data were determined and the model was verified. The simulation results show that the coupling model of HD module and NAM module of MIKE11 model can well simulate the rainfall runoff and river network flow in Nierji control basin, and provide technical support for hydrological data prediction for flood control operation of Nierji reservoir.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號(hào)】:TV697.13;TV124

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 楊春輝;張s,

本文編號(hào):2271396


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