【摘要】：針對(duì)冰凌災(zāi)害水文水資源系統(tǒng)中隨機(jī)性、模糊性和灰色性共存的問(wèn)題,建立基于灰信息的預(yù)測(cè)與決策模型,并結(jié)合黃河流域?qū)幟啥螌?shí)際數(shù)據(jù),系統(tǒng)地分析冰凌災(zāi)害的數(shù)據(jù)特征,研究灰色預(yù)測(cè)和決策模型在解決冰凌災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理問(wèn)題上的可行性及有效性。首先,通過(guò)先將區(qū)間灰數(shù)進(jìn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理,分解成實(shí)數(shù)形式的“白部”和“灰部”后,進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè).再將已知的白化權(quán)函數(shù)映射為[0,1]上的函數(shù),并用函數(shù)的面積和重心估計(jì)出預(yù)測(cè)值的白化權(quán)函數(shù).其次,通過(guò)分析偏差測(cè)度矩陣和灰關(guān)聯(lián)測(cè)度矩陣的區(qū)別和聯(lián)系,提出綜合偏差-關(guān)聯(lián)測(cè)度矩陣,給出了基于灰數(shù)信息的多目標(biāo)局勢(shì)決策中目標(biāo)權(quán)重確定的兩種方法.再次,針對(duì)灰色多階段多屬性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型群決策問(wèn)題,研究了其決策方法。該方法利用分析技巧和相離度理論確定階段內(nèi)決策者權(quán)重,采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)方法確定屬性權(quán)重,而后建立多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型,求出時(shí)間權(quán)重表達(dá)式,確定方案的綜合評(píng)價(jià)值。最后,將灰色局勢(shì)決策模型應(yīng)用于黃河防汛物資的生產(chǎn)和管理實(shí)例中,驗(yàn)證其有效性和實(shí)用性。并分析和研究了黃河寧蒙河段巴彥高勒站凌期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。對(duì)其凌期日均流量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),將徑流量預(yù)測(cè)值限制在一個(gè)區(qū)間帶上,此區(qū)間帶由下界、上界和最大可能點(diǎn)構(gòu)成,且預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果精度較高.進(jìn)而對(duì)黃河寧蒙河段巴彥高勒站的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估。結(jié)果表明:2003-2012年間黃河寧蒙段巴彥高勒冰凌災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)呈現(xiàn)一定的波動(dòng)特征,但總體趨勢(shì)保持平穩(wěn),預(yù)計(jì)2013-2015年,冰凌災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度有下降趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the coexistence of randomness, fuzziness and grey in the hydrological and water resources system of ice disaster, a prediction and decision model based on grey information is established, and the data characteristics of ice disaster are systematically analyzed in combination with the actual data of Ningmeng section of the Yellow River basin. The feasibility and effectiveness of grey prediction and decision model in ice disaster risk management are studied. First of all, the interval grey number is standardized and decomposed into "white part" and "grey part" in real number form, and then predicted. Then the known whitening weight function is mapped to the function on [0], and the whitening weight function of the predicted value is estimated by using the area and center of gravity of the function. Secondly, by analyzing the difference and relation between the deviation measure matrix and the grey correlation measure matrix, this paper puts forward the comprehensive deviation and association measure matrix, and gives two methods to determine the target weight in the multi-objective situation decision-making based on the grey number information. Thirdly, the decision-making method of grey multi-stage multi-attribute group decision-making is studied. In this method, the weight of decision makers is determined by using the analytical technique and the theory of divergence degree, and the attribute weight is determined by the grey correlation method. Then, the multi-objective optimization model is established, and the expression of the time weight is obtained, and the comprehensive evaluation value of the scheme is determined. Finally, the grey situation decision model is applied to the production and management of flood control materials of the Yellow River to verify its validity and practicability. The transit risk of Bayangol station in Ningmeng reach of the Yellow River is analyzed and studied. The average daily runoff during transit is predicted by limiting the runoff prediction value to an interval zone, which is composed of lower bound, upper bound and maximum possible point, and the accuracy of the prediction results is high. Then the risk of Bayangol station in the Ningmeng reach of the Yellow River is evaluated. The results show that the risk of Bayangol ice disaster in Ningmeng section of the Yellow River from 2003 to 2012 shows certain fluctuation characteristics, but the overall trend remains stable, and the risk degree of ice disaster is expected to decrease from 2013 to 2015.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV875;N941.5

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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