【摘要】：大壩安全內(nèi)部和外部變形監(jiān)測是檢測大壩安全運(yùn)行狀況，及時發(fā)現(xiàn)工程是否隱患的重要日常工作，是大壩運(yùn)行管理的重中之重。為保證大壩安全運(yùn)行，按照《混凝土壩安全監(jiān)測技術(shù)規(guī)范》（DL/T5178-2003）、《水電站大壩運(yùn)行安全管理規(guī)定》（國家電力監(jiān)管委員會第3號令）、《水電站大壩安全監(jiān)測工作管理辦法》（電監(jiān)安全[2009]4號）等要求，需定期對大壩進(jìn)行水工監(jiān)測。在現(xiàn)場檢查結(jié)合定期監(jiān)測資料進(jìn)行對比分析等工作的基礎(chǔ)上，，對整個大壩的運(yùn)行工況做出初步評價，對監(jiān)測設(shè)施的保護(hù)、更新改造等提出意見和建議。為了掌握航電工程大壩、電廠、船閘運(yùn)行期的工作狀態(tài)，驗證設(shè)計的各項參數(shù)，及時發(fā)現(xiàn)異常情況采取措施，以保證大壩、電廠、船閘能夠安全得正常運(yùn)行，因此，要對其進(jìn)行變形監(jiān)測。變形監(jiān)測的工作包括每月一次的變形點(diǎn)測量和每年一次的控制網(wǎng)校核。由于變形點(diǎn)監(jiān)測是在控制網(wǎng)提供精確坐標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行，因此控制網(wǎng)校核工作非常關(guān)鍵。 大壩安全監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)的重要觀測項目之一是水平位移觀測。結(jié)合對某電站大壩壩頂上11個觀測點(diǎn)以及船閘邊墻上18個觀測點(diǎn)的觀測過程，介紹了在視覺觀察法、前方交會法行水平位移的原理，步驟和誤差分析，結(jié)合歷史數(shù)據(jù)對水平位移方面的觀測資料進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計整理，建立模型和多元線性回歸分析，并討論了溫度、水位、時效對水平位移的影響深度，壩頂?shù)乃轿灰�，發(fā)現(xiàn)船閘和水庫水位溫度的影響是顯而易見的，老齡化的水平位移的影響不大;采用第二代回歸方法偏最小二乘回歸重新建立統(tǒng)計模型，與多元線性回歸分析做簡要對比，發(fā)現(xiàn)偏最小二乘回歸的擬合效果比多元線性回歸更好。 本文主要介紹了用回歸分析和偏最小二乘法兩種方法對某電站大壩及船閘上點(diǎn)的測量數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，并對分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較，可以得到偏最小二乘法方法得到的擬合結(jié)果更好，建議在以后數(shù)據(jù)處理方面多偏向于用最小二乘法進(jìn)行分析處理，得到的擬合結(jié)果綜合看誤差更小，結(jié)果比其他方法更精確。
[Abstract]:The internal and external deformation monitoring of dam safety is an important daily work to detect the safe operation condition of the dam and to discover the hidden trouble of the project in time. It is the most important task of the dam operation management. In order to ensure the safe operation of the dam, According to the Technical Specification for Safety Monitoring of concrete dams (DL/T5178-2003), the regulations on the Safety Management of Hydropower Dam Operation (order No. 3 of the State electricity Regulatory Commission), and the measures for the Management of Dam Safety Monitoring of Hydropower stations (Power Supervision Safety [2009] No. 4), etc. Hydraulic monitoring of the dam is required on a regular basis. On the basis of comparison and analysis of site inspection and periodic monitoring data, this paper makes a preliminary evaluation of the operation conditions of the whole dam, and puts forward suggestions and suggestions on the protection of monitoring facilities and the renewal and renovation of the monitoring facilities. In order to master the working state of the dams, power plants and locks in avionics engineering, verify the design parameters, and find out the abnormal situation in time, measures should be taken to ensure the safe operation of the dams, power plants and locks, so that the dam, power plant and lock can operate normally and safely. It should be monitored for deformation. Deformation monitoring includes monthly deformation point measurement and annual control network checking. Because the deformation point monitoring is based on the precise coordinates provided by the control network, it is very important to control the network checking. One of the important observation items of dam safety monitoring system is horizontal displacement observation. Combined with the observation process of 11 observation points on the dam top of a hydropower station and 18 observation points on the side wall of a ship lock, the principle, steps and error analysis of horizontal displacement in visual observation method and forward intersection method are introduced. Based on the historical data, the observation data of horizontal displacement are analyzed, the model and multivariate linear regression analysis are established, and the influence of temperature, water level and aging on horizontal displacement is discussed, and the horizontal displacement of dam top is also discussed. It is found that the influence of shiplock and reservoir water level temperature is obvious, and that the influence of aging horizontal displacement is not obvious, the second generation regression method partial least square regression is used to re-establish the statistical model, and a brief comparison is made with the multivariate linear regression analysis. It is found that the fitting effect of partial least square regression is better than that of multivariate linear regression. This paper mainly introduces two methods of regression analysis and partial least square method to analyze the measured data of the upper point of dam and lock of a certain power station. By comparing the results of the analysis, the fitting results obtained by the partial least square method are better. It is suggested that the least square method should be used in the analysis of the data processing in the future, and the result of fitting is more accurate than other methods.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV698.1

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