發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-17 17:39

【摘要】：城鎮(zhèn)化是發(fā)展中國(guó)家21世紀(jì)的主要發(fā)展趨勢(shì),在很大程度上主導(dǎo)著人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等各方面的轉(zhuǎn)變,成為拉動(dòng)用水量增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵因素。城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中城鎮(zhèn)居民收入、人口結(jié)構(gòu)、人口密度和人力資本等因素的變化,使得城鎮(zhèn)化并非表現(xiàn)為線性發(fā)展規(guī)律,最終導(dǎo)致用水量也存在相應(yīng)的門(mén)檻效應(yīng)并呈現(xiàn)階段性增長(zhǎng)特征。本文首先對(duì)我國(guó)各地區(qū)城鎮(zhèn)化水平和用水量進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,從地區(qū)層面直觀描述我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化水平和用水量的變化特征,然后采用面板門(mén)檻模型研究城鎮(zhèn)化、城鎮(zhèn)居民人均收入、人力資本、城市人口密度和人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)于用水量的門(mén)檻效應(yīng),搜尋在城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中各人口因素對(duì)用水量影響的門(mén)檻點(diǎn)并分析階段性變化特征,最后結(jié)合PVAR模型研究城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中各人口因素對(duì)用水量的動(dòng)態(tài)影響和作用機(jī)制。門(mén)檻回歸結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)用水量的影響具有明顯的階段性特征,分別以城鎮(zhèn)化和人均收入為門(mén)檻變量,超越門(mén)檻點(diǎn)后城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)用水量的彈性系數(shù)分別呈現(xiàn)先升后降的倒"U"型和先降后升的正"U"型變化趨勢(shì);以人力資本為門(mén)檻變化量,城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)用水量的拉動(dòng)作用則不斷減弱。脈沖響應(yīng)結(jié)果顯示:城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)用水量具有長(zhǎng)期且穩(wěn)定的正向沖擊,而居民收入和人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)用水量的正向沖擊則逐漸收斂于零,人口密度和人力資本對(duì)用水量均具有負(fù)向沖擊,且人口密度的負(fù)效應(yīng)不斷增強(qiáng),而人力資本的負(fù)效應(yīng)不斷減弱。方差分解的結(jié)果表明,目前我國(guó)用水量的增長(zhǎng)受自身的影響較大,除年齡結(jié)構(gòu)外,人口密度、居民收入、人力資本和城鎮(zhèn)化也具有小規(guī)模的貢獻(xiàn)程度。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the main development trend of developing countries in the 21st century, and to a large extent, it leads to the transformation of population, economy and industrial structure, and becomes the key factor to promote the growth of water consumption. This paper firstly makes a statistical analysis of the level of urbanization and water consumption in various regions of China, describes the change characteristics of urbanization level and water consumption intuitively from the regional level, and then uses the panel threshold model to study the city. The threshold effect of urbanization, per capita income of urban residents, human capital, urban population density and population age structure on water consumption is studied. The threshold points of population factors affecting water consumption in the process of urbanization are searched and the characteristics of periodic changes are analyzed. Finally, the dynamics of population factors on water consumption in the process of urbanization is studied with PVAR model. The results of threshold regression show that the impact of urbanization on water consumption has obvious periodic characteristics, and the elasticity coefficient of urbanization on water consumption shows an inverted U-shaped trend of first rising and then falling and a positive U-shaped trend of first falling and then rising, respectively, with urbanization and per capita income as threshold variables. The results of impulse response show that urbanization has a long-term and stable positive impact on water consumption, while the positive impact of residents'income and population age structure on water consumption gradually converges to zero, population density and human capital have a negative impact on water consumption. The results of variance decomposition show that the growth of water consumption in China is greatly influenced by itself, besides age structure, population density, resident income, human capital and urbanization also have small-scale contribution.
【作者單位】： 河海大學(xué)商學(xué)院;河海大學(xué)企業(yè)管理學(xué)院;常州大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“用水效率異質(zhì)特征下跨區(qū)域多部門(mén)水權(quán)配置及政策”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):14BGL097),“基于降雨量指數(shù)保險(xiǎn)的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制及對(duì)策研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):15BGL128) 2014年度江蘇高�！扒嗨{(lán)工程”優(yōu)秀青年骨干教師培養(yǎng)對(duì)象資助項(xiàng)目“多區(qū)域多部門(mén)的水權(quán)配置研究” 2016年度江蘇省“333工程”第三層次人才培養(yǎng)項(xiàng)目“虛擬水與實(shí)體水的空間配置研究”
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV213.4
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本文編號(hào)：2188393