【摘要】：隨著大規(guī)模水庫群的逐漸形成,河庫水系連通方式也變得復(fù)雜多樣,連通格局的變化使水庫群聯(lián)合調(diào)度呈現(xiàn)出很多新的特點(diǎn)和難題,對其進(jìn)行綜合調(diào)度與運(yùn)行管理變得越來越復(fù)雜。因此,開展連通條件下大規(guī)模水庫群聯(lián)合調(diào)度方法與理論研究和可行的聯(lián)合調(diào)度規(guī)則制定,是現(xiàn)階段亟待解決的一項(xiàng)重要課題。為此,本文選取遼寧省直屬供水水庫群為研究對象,從理論研究和實(shí)例應(yīng)用兩個(gè)方面入手,對連通條件下供水水庫群調(diào)度規(guī)則的制定、模型的構(gòu)建方式及求解方法以及跨流域供水水庫群的調(diào)水機(jī)制進(jìn)行了深入的研究,主要研究內(nèi)容與成果如下：(1)基于長期的實(shí)測徑流資料,分析遼寧省境內(nèi)遼河流域四座大型水庫入庫徑流的年內(nèi)及年際變化特征。并采用Spearman秩次相關(guān)檢驗(yàn)法和Mann-Kendall秩次相關(guān)檢驗(yàn)法對各研究區(qū)域內(nèi)的大型水庫入庫徑流變化規(guī)律進(jìn)行分析,同時(shí)建立了基于Copula函數(shù)的二維聯(lián)合分布模型,利用該模型對流域間的徑流補(bǔ)償特征進(jìn)行分析,以判斷水庫(流域)間的徑流補(bǔ)償能力。(2)根據(jù)現(xiàn)狀條件下遼寧省直屬水庫群供水調(diào)度方式,按流域劃分供水單元,概化并繪制各供水單元的網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)圖。以所劃分的供水單元為基礎(chǔ),應(yīng)用優(yōu)化方法分別對各供水單元內(nèi)的單庫、簡單串聯(lián)水庫群及簡單并聯(lián)水庫群進(jìn)行優(yōu)化調(diào)度,得到由水庫(庫群)優(yōu)化調(diào)度圖及其調(diào)度規(guī)則組成的優(yōu)化供水調(diào)度方案,并確定省直屬水庫群在現(xiàn)狀條件下單庫(單流域)的最大供水能力。(3)針對供水水庫群的聯(lián)合調(diào)度問題,基于“聚合分解”思想,提出了聚合水庫調(diào)度規(guī)則求解框架。在該框架內(nèi),構(gòu)建了與供水水庫群等效的聚合水庫,并在聚合階段給出了兩類聚合水庫供水調(diào)度規(guī)則形式用于指導(dǎo)聚合水庫的供水調(diào)度；在分解階段,針對水庫群共同供水目標(biāo)的供水分配問題,提出多種形式的靜態(tài)分水方法以及動態(tài)分水方法來確定每個(gè)成員水庫所承擔(dān)的供水任務(wù)。將該框架應(yīng)用于遼河干流流域清河、柴河并聯(lián)水庫群構(gòu)成的聚合水庫供水調(diào)度之中,重點(diǎn)研究了不同形式的調(diào)度規(guī)則對水庫群聯(lián)合調(diào)度性能的影響。(4)以渾太流域水庫群為研究對象,分別采用兩類不同的建模方式構(gòu)建水庫群聯(lián)合調(diào)度模型Ⅰ和Ⅱ,并制定相應(yīng)的聯(lián)合供水調(diào)度規(guī)則。在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用模擬-優(yōu)化模型對調(diào)度規(guī)則進(jìn)行尋優(yōu),通過對比討論不同規(guī)則下基于實(shí)測徑流系列的水庫群聯(lián)合優(yōu)化調(diào)度結(jié)果,驗(yàn)證聯(lián)合調(diào)度規(guī)則的合理性。與此同時(shí),為降低徑流不確定性對模型應(yīng)用結(jié)果的影響,提出了基于主站法的一階自回歸-解集組合模型用于旬徑流模擬系列的隨機(jī)生成,并將其生成的旬徑流模擬系列輸入到聯(lián)合調(diào)度模型Ⅰ、Ⅱ之中,以分析兩類聯(lián)合調(diào)度模型的合理性和差異性。(5)分析跨流域調(diào)水系統(tǒng)的空間拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu),并制定了同時(shí)考慮水庫群供水以及流域間調(diào)水的雙向型跨流域供水水庫群聯(lián)合調(diào)度規(guī)則。在規(guī)則中,提出了基于兩個(gè)聚合水庫調(diào)水控制線的調(diào)水啟動機(jī)制用于指導(dǎo)流域間水庫群的雙向調(diào)水。該啟動機(jī)制以流域水庫群時(shí)段初蓄水狀態(tài)為判別指標(biāo),通過建立水庫群時(shí)段初蓄水總量與調(diào)水控制線之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系來實(shí)現(xiàn)流域間水量的調(diào)配。為驗(yàn)證所提出的調(diào)度規(guī)則的合理性和有效性,制定四個(gè)不同的聯(lián)合調(diào)度方案指導(dǎo)含雙向跨流域調(diào)水工程的遼寧省直屬水庫群的聯(lián)合調(diào)度,結(jié)果說明了雙向跨流域供水方案可以同時(shí)提高兩個(gè)流域水庫群的供水量以及各農(nóng)業(yè)灌區(qū)的供水保證率,使流域間的水庫群能以互利的方式進(jìn)行供水。最后對全文作出總結(jié),并對有待進(jìn)一步研究的問題進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:With the gradual formation of large-scale reservoir groups, River and reservoir water system connectivity has become complex and diverse, the change of connectivity pattern makes the joint operation of reservoir groups show many new characteristics and problems, and its comprehensive operation and operation management become more and more complex. Therefore, this paper chooses the water supply reservoir group directly under Liaoning Province as the research object, starts from the theoretical research and the example application two aspects, to formulate the water supply reservoir group operation rules under the connected condition, the model construction way and the solution method. The main contents and achievements are as follows: (1) Based on long-term observed runoff data, the annual and interannual variation characteristics of inflow runoff of four large reservoirs in Liaohe River basin in Liaoning Province are analyzed, and Spearman rank correlation test and Mann-Kendall rank phase are used. The Guan-Cheng method is used to analyze the runoff variation of large reservoirs in each study area, and a two-dimensional joint distribution model based on Copula function is established. The model is used to analyze the characteristics of runoff compensation between basins, so as to judge the runoff compensation ability between reservoirs (basins). (2) According to the current situation, the direct water of Liaoning Province is provided. The water supply dispatching mode of reservoir group is divided into water supply units according to the river basin, and the network structure diagram of each water supply unit is generalized and drawn. Based on the water supply units, the single reservoir, the simple series reservoir and the simple parallel reservoir in each water supply unit are optimized and dispatched respectively by using the optimization method, and the optimal dispatching diagram of reservoir (reservoir group) is obtained. (3) Aiming at the joint operation of water supply reservoirs, based on the idea of "aggregation decomposition", a framework for solving the operation rules of aggregate reservoirs is proposed. Equivalent aggregate reservoir and two types of aggregate reservoir water supply dispatching rules are given to guide the aggregate reservoir water supply dispatching in the aggregation stage. The framework is applied to the water supply dispatch of aggregate reservoirs composed of Qinghe and Chaihe parallel reservoirs in the main stream of Liaohe River basin, and the effect of different dispatching rules on the joint dispatch performance of reservoirs is mainly studied. (4) The Huntai reservoir group is taken as the research object, and two different modeling methods are adopted to construct the model. On this basis, the simulation-optimization model is used to optimize the operation rules. By comparing and discussing the joint optimal operation results of reservoir groups based on the measured runoff series under different rules, the rationality of the joint operation rules is verified. The effect of low runoff uncertainty on the application results of the model is studied. A combined model of first-order autoregressive-disaggregation based on the master station method is proposed for the random generation of ten-day runoff simulation series. The ten-day runoff simulation series generated by the model is input into the joint operation model I and II to analyze the rationality and difference of the two kinds of joint operation models. The spatial topology of inter-basin water transfer system is analyzed, and the joint operation rules of two-way inter-basin water supply reservoirs are formulated, which consider both water supply by reservoirs and inter-basin water transfer. The motivation mechanism takes the initial impoundment state of the reservoir group as the judgment index, and realizes the inter-basin water allocation by establishing the correlation between the total amount of initial impoundment and the water transfer control line. To verify the rationality and validity of the proposed regulation, four different joint operation schemes are formulated to guide the two-way cross-flow. The results show that the two-way inter-basin water supply scheme can simultaneously increase the water supply quantity of the reservoir groups in the two basins and the water supply guarantee rate of each agricultural irrigation area, so that the reservoir groups between the basins can supply water in a mutually beneficial way. The research questions are prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TV697.1

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

中國期刊全文數(shù)據(jù)庫 前10條

1 韓義超;谷長葉;胡鐵松;程銳;龍華;;遼寧省跨流域水系聯(lián)通復(fù)雜巨系統(tǒng)調(diào)度技術(shù)研究[J];節(jié)水灌溉;2014年02期

2 郭旭寧;胡鐵松;曾祥;杜永鑫;;基于調(diào)度規(guī)則的水庫群供水能力與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析[J];水利學(xué)報(bào);2013年06期

3 陳璐;郭生練;周建中;熊立華;閆寶偉;;長江上游多站日流量隨機(jī)模擬方法[J];水科學(xué)進(jìn)展;2013年04期

4 郭旭寧;胡鐵松;呂一兵;張濤;;跨流域供水水庫群聯(lián)合調(diào)度規(guī)則研究[J];水利學(xué)報(bào);2012年07期

5 許銀山;梅亞東;鐘壬琳;楊娜;;大規(guī)�；炻�(lián)水庫群調(diào)度規(guī)則研究[J];水力發(fā)電學(xué)報(bào);2011年02期

6 張翔;冉U_香;夏軍;宋星原;;基于Copula函數(shù)的水量水質(zhì)聯(lián)合分布函數(shù)[J];水利學(xué)報(bào);2011年04期

7 陳炯宏;郭生練;劉攀;郭富強(qiáng);李雨;;三峽梯級和清江梯級水電站群聯(lián)合調(diào)度研究[J];水力發(fā)電學(xué)報(bào);2010年06期

8 王國利;梁國華;曹小磊;周惠成;;基于協(xié)商對策的群決策模型及其在跨流域調(diào)水方案優(yōu)選中的應(yīng)用[J];水利學(xué)報(bào);2010年05期

9 周慶東;佟曉娜;鐘子琳;;大伙房水庫工程效益綜述[J];東北水利水電;2010年01期

10 王國利;袁晶tD;梁國華;李敏;;刞窩水庫汛限水位動態(tài)控制域研究與應(yīng)用[J];大連理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2008年06期

中國博士學(xué)位論文全文數(shù)據(jù)庫 前4條

1 李學(xué)森;跨流域調(diào)水系統(tǒng)調(diào)度決策方式及管理模式研究[D];大連理工大學(xué);2009年

2 徐向廣;灤河中下游水庫群聯(lián)合供水優(yōu)化調(diào)度問題的研究[D];天津大學(xué);2009年

3 蔣旭光;跨流域調(diào)水系統(tǒng)水資源管理研究[D];天津大學(xué);2008年

4 張改紅;基于防洪預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度的水庫汛限水位設(shè)計(jì)與控制研究[D];大連理工大學(xué);2008年

中國碩士學(xué)位論文全文數(shù)據(jù)庫 前9條

1 張皓天;受水區(qū)供水水庫（群）優(yōu)化調(diào)度方法研究及應(yīng)用[D];大連理工大學(xué);2013年

2 劉銀迪;基于生態(tài)的渾太河流域水庫群聯(lián)合調(diào)度研究[D];華北水利水電學(xué)院;2012年

3 肖琳;渾河流域河流生境的分類及其評價(jià)體系構(gòu)建[D];西南大學(xué);2012年

4 郝利勛;基于生態(tài)環(huán)境改善的太子河水庫群聯(lián)合調(diào)度研究[D];大連理工大學(xué);2011年

5 楊洵;太子河觀—刞河段水質(zhì)改善調(diào)控技術(shù)研究[D];大連理工大學(xué);2011年

6 劉洋;渾河流域水資源承載能力研究[D];沈陽農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2010年

7 唐穎豐;洮河干流徑流變化特征分析[D];蘭州大學(xué);2010年

8 楊曉玉;南水北調(diào)西線一期工程調(diào)水區(qū)徑流特性及其豐枯遭遇分析[D];天津大學(xué);2008年

9 余麗華;水庫群發(fā)電優(yōu)化調(diào)度神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型研究[D];河海大學(xué);2006年

，

本文編號：2185239