【摘要】：山洪災(zāi)害是由降雨引起的一種自然災(zāi)害,主要受流域的降雨特性和下墊面條件等因素影響。陜西省山洪災(zāi)害頻發(fā),每年均會(huì)造成嚴(yán)重的人員傷亡和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。小流域山洪災(zāi)害預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)研究可為山洪災(zāi)害的預(yù)防和治理提供理論基礎(chǔ)和技術(shù)依據(jù)。本文分析了陜西省陜南地區(qū)山洪災(zāi)害成因、特點(diǎn)及發(fā)展趨勢(shì),并結(jié)合山洪災(zāi)害防治工作的開(kāi)展情況,對(duì)防治工作的效益進(jìn)行分析。針對(duì)無(wú)資料和資料不足或缺乏的山區(qū)小流域,分別采用水位流量反推法和TOPMODEL流域水文模型法進(jìn)行預(yù)警指標(biāo)的確定。采用經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式法、推理公式法和瞬時(shí)單位線法推求冷水河流域設(shè)計(jì)洪水,通過(guò)分析比較計(jì)算結(jié)果并確定各方法適用性。得到如下結(jié)論:(1)陜南地區(qū)山洪災(zāi)害主要由突發(fā)的強(qiáng)降雨形成。由于大氣環(huán)流條件和地形因素短期內(nèi)不會(huì)有較大的改變,因此陜南地區(qū)山洪災(zāi)害防治現(xiàn)狀短時(shí)期內(nèi)不會(huì)有較大的改觀。通過(guò)分析近年山洪災(zāi)害造成的生命財(cái)產(chǎn)損失,可知由于山洪災(zāi)害防治項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)展,災(zāi)害損失有所減少,工作成效較明顯。(2)針對(duì)無(wú)資料小流域采用經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式法、推理公式法和瞬時(shí)單位線法計(jì)算設(shè)計(jì)洪峰流量,均有一定可行性,三種方法計(jì)算結(jié)果存在差異。經(jīng)分析可知,經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式法因考慮影響因素過(guò)少,在運(yùn)用時(shí)僅能作為參考結(jié)果。瞬時(shí)單位線法計(jì)算所得設(shè)計(jì)洪峰流量偏大,適用于流域面積較大的區(qū)域。推理公式法計(jì)算過(guò)程比較簡(jiǎn)潔,能較好地反映流域?qū)嶋H情況,針對(duì)無(wú)資料且流域面積較小的流域,推理公式法有較好的適用性。(3)采用水位反推法計(jì)算山區(qū)小流域山洪雨量預(yù)警指標(biāo),假定不同的前期土壤含水量,計(jì)算相應(yīng)的臨界雨量值,即為立即轉(zhuǎn)移預(yù)警雨量值,可實(shí)現(xiàn)較簡(jiǎn)單的動(dòng)態(tài)雨量預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)。采用水位流量反推法計(jì)算臨界雨量時(shí),在相同土壤含水量情況下,臨界雨量值隨著時(shí)段的增大而增大,變化速率隨著時(shí)段的增大而減小,土壤含水量對(duì)臨界雨量的影響隨著時(shí)段的增長(zhǎng)而減小;相同時(shí)段的臨界雨量隨著土壤含水量的增大而減小,且變化速率隨著土壤含水量的增大而減小,即土壤含水量對(duì)臨界雨量的影響隨著其增大而減小。(4)采用TOPMODEL水文模型法確定雨量預(yù)警指標(biāo)。提取流域DEM數(shù)據(jù)并進(jìn)行處理得到流域地形指數(shù)分布曲線,通過(guò)人工試錯(cuò)法率定模型參數(shù)。由模擬結(jié)果知TOPMODEL模型可應(yīng)用于陜南濕潤(rùn)地區(qū),能較好地模擬徑流過(guò)程。通過(guò)試算法反算不同土壤濕潤(rùn)程度下的臨界雨量值。(5)對(duì)比分析水位流量反推法和TOPMODEL流域水文模型法確定臨界雨量值,可知水位流量反推法確定的預(yù)警指標(biāo)值較小,TOPMODEL模型法確定的預(yù)警指標(biāo)值較大。與歷史洪水資料相比較,知兩種方法均可進(jìn)行預(yù)警指標(biāo)的計(jì)算,可應(yīng)用于山洪預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)工作中。
[Abstract]:Mountain flood disaster is a natural disaster caused by rainfall, which is mainly influenced by the rainfall characteristics of the basin and the conditions of the underlying surface. The flood disasters in Shaanxi province are frequent and cause serious casualties and property losses every year. The study of mountain flood disaster early warning and prediction in small watershed can provide theoretical basis and technology for the prevention and control of mountain torrents. This paper analyzes the causes, characteristics and development trend of mountain torrents in southern Shaanxi Province, and analyzes the benefit of the prevention and control work in the light of the prevention and control work of mountain torrents. In view of the small and lack of data and data, the water flow backstepping method and the TOPMODEL watershed hydrologic model method are adopted respectively. The empirical formula method, the inference formula method and the instantaneous unit line method are used to calculate the design flood in the cold water river basin. The results are analyzed and compared and the applicability of each method is determined. The following conclusions are obtained: (1) the mountain flood disaster in southern Shaanxi is mainly caused by the sudden heavy rainfall. There will be no big changes in the period, so there will not be a great change in the current situation of flood disaster prevention and control in southern Shaanxi. By analyzing the loss of life and property caused by mountain flood disasters in recent years, it is known that the loss of disaster loss has been reduced and the work efficiency is obvious because of the project of flood disaster prevention and control. (2) the use of the small watershed for no data is adopted. The experimental formula method, the inference formula method and the instantaneous unit line method are feasible to calculate the flood peak flow. The calculation results of the three methods are different. The analysis shows that the empirical formula method can only be used as a reference result when the influence factors are too few and can be used as the reference result. The calculation process of the inference formula method is relatively simple and can better reflect the actual situation of the basin. The reasoning formula method has good applicability for the basin with no data and the basin area is small. (3) the early warning index of mountain flood rainfall is calculated by the water level backstepping method, and the different early soil water content is assumed and the calculation phase is assumed. The critical rainfall value, that is, to transfer early warning rainfall value immediately, can realize a relatively simple dynamic rainfall forecast. When the critical rainfall is calculated by the reverse method of water level and flow, the critical rainfall value increases with the increase of the period of time, the rate of change decreases with the increase of the time period, and the soil water content is critical. The effect of rainfall decreases with the increase of the period of time; the critical rainfall in the same period decreases with the increase of soil water content, and the change rate decreases with the increase of soil water content, that is, the influence of soil water content on the critical rainfall decreases with the increase of soil water content. (4) the rainfall early warning index is determined by the TOPMODEL hydrological model method. The watershed DEM data are processed to get the distribution curve of the basin topographic index, and the model parameters are determined by the artificial test and error rate. The simulation results know that the TOPMODEL model can be applied to the humid region of Southern Shannan, and the runoff process can be simulated well. The critical rainfall value under different soil wetting degree is calculated by the test algorithm. (5) the contrast analysis of the water level and flow rate is made. The method of pushing and the hydrological model of the TOPMODEL basin determines the critical rainfall value. It is known that the early warning index value determined by the backstepping method of the water level and flow is smaller, and the early warning index value determined by the TOPMODEL model method is larger. Compared with the historical flood data, two methods can be used to calculate the early warning index, which can be applied to the early warning and prediction work of the mountain torrents.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV87;X43

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本文編號(hào)：2155144