【摘要】：我國水資源日益缺乏，尤其是在西北地區(qū)地廣人稀、幅員遼闊，水資源總量人均占有量少，可利用的水資源更少。近年來，烏倫古河流域經(jīng)濟快速增長，工農(nóng)業(yè)迅速發(fā)展，烏倫古河作為沿岸重要的水源地，支撐著流域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，，在研究區(qū)發(fā)揮著不可或缺的作用。本文在GIS的平臺上應(yīng)用SWAT模型，首先收集整理研究區(qū)基礎(chǔ)資料，建立了烏倫古河流域的空間數(shù)據(jù)庫和屬性數(shù)據(jù)庫；在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了烏倫古河流域的SWAT分布式水文模型，利用SWAT模型模擬研究區(qū)徑流變化，并使用2000-2009年二臺水文站的徑流數(shù)據(jù)進行參數(shù)率定和模型驗證，最后設(shè)置氣候和土地利用變化情景，模擬分析不同氣候和土地利用情景下徑流的變化特征。主要包括以下幾個方面： （1）分析處理基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)包括土地利用、土壤、氣象、水文數(shù)據(jù)，建立了相應(yīng)的數(shù)據(jù)庫，在ArcGIS9.3的平臺上利用ArcSWAT2.3.4劃分子流域、生成河網(wǎng)、確定流域邊界以及劃分水文響應(yīng)單元，并進行水文參數(shù)的提取，整個研究區(qū)劃分為44個子流域，249個水文響應(yīng)單元。 （2）構(gòu)建了烏倫古河流域分布式SWAT月徑流模型，應(yīng)用現(xiàn)有基礎(chǔ)資料模擬徑流，采用二臺水文站實測月徑流數(shù)據(jù)對模型進行校準(zhǔn)和驗證，校準(zhǔn)期2000-2005年效率系數(shù)0.67，平均相對誤差-6.56%，線性相關(guān)系數(shù)0.70；驗證期2006-2009年效率系數(shù)0.80，平均相對誤差-11.58%，線性相關(guān)系數(shù)0.81；表明模型在烏倫古河流域的適用性較好。 （3）假定未來多種氣候變化情景，來研究氣候變化對烏倫古河流域徑流的影響，研究結(jié)果表明：流域氣溫升高1℃，降水不變，徑流減少1.60%，徑流與氣溫呈負相關(guān)關(guān)系；降水增加10%，氣溫不變，徑流量增加4.21%，徑流與降水呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系；且降水對徑流的影響大于氣溫對其影響，說明烏倫古河流域未來氣候?qū)搅髁孔兓饕绊懸蛩厥墙邓�，其次是氣溫�?（4）設(shè)置三種土地利用變化情景，探討了土地利用變化下烏倫古河流域徑流響應(yīng)，研究結(jié)果表明：1986年至2010年土地利用變化導(dǎo)致徑流量的變化率為16.24%，其對地表徑流的影響較大，主要原因在于流域土地利用開發(fā)導(dǎo)致下墊面產(chǎn)流特征的變化。
[Abstract]:Water resources in China are becoming increasingly scarce, especially in the northwest region, with a vast territory, a small per capita share of total water resources, and less available water resources. In recent years, with the rapid economic growth and rapid development of industry and agriculture, the Wulunguhe River, as an important source of water along the coast, supports the economic development of the basin and plays an indispensable role in the research area. In this paper, based on the SWAT model of GIS, the spatial database and attribute database of the Wulungu River Basin are established, and the SWAT distributed hydrological model of the Wulunguhe River Basin is constructed based on the data collection and collation of the basic data of the study area. The SWAT model is used to simulate the runoff change in the study area, and the runoff data of the two hydrologic stations from 2000 to 2009 are used to validate the parameter rate and the model. Finally, the climate and land use change scenarios are set up. The variation characteristics of runoff under different climate and land use scenarios were simulated and analyzed. The main contents are as follows: (1) the basic data including land use, soil, meteorology and hydrology are analyzed and processed. The corresponding database is established, and the sub-watershed is divided by ArcSWAT2.3.4 on the platform of ArcGIS9.3, and the river network is generated. The boundary of the basin and the hydrological response unit are determined, and the hydrological parameters are extracted. The whole study area is divided into 44 subbasins and 249 hydrological response units. (2) the distributed SWAT monthly runoff model of the Wulungu River Basin is constructed. Using the existing basic data to simulate the runoff, the model is calibrated and verified by the measured monthly runoff data of the two hydrological stations. The efficiency coefficient is 0.67, the average relative error is -6.56, and the linear correlation coefficient is 0.70 in the calibration period from 2000 to 2005. In the verification period 2006-2009, the efficiency coefficient was 0.80, the average relative error was -11.58, and the linear correlation coefficient was 0.81.It indicated that the model was suitable for the Ulugur River basin. (3) it is assumed that there are many climate change scenarios in the future. To study the effect of climate change on runoff in the Wulunguhe River basin, the results show that the temperature of the basin increases by 1 鈩

本文編號：2151153