發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-07 19:57

  本文選題：洪水預(yù)報(bào) + 預(yù)報(bào)誤差　； 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：洪水給人類帶來巨大生命、財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。目前應(yīng)對洪水災(zāi)害有兩種辦法：工程措施與非工程措施。水庫作為重要的工程措施在防洪減災(zāi)方面發(fā)揮了巨大的作用,與之對應(yīng)的,科學(xué)合理的洪水調(diào)度作為重要的非工程措施是使水庫安全運(yùn)行、減小洪災(zāi)損失和實(shí)現(xiàn)洪水資源最大化的關(guān)鍵。在實(shí)時(shí)洪水調(diào)度中,洪水預(yù)報(bào)不但可以延長預(yù)見期,而且可以明確洪水信息,幫助調(diào)度人員進(jìn)行科學(xué)決策,但在實(shí)施水庫防洪預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度規(guī)則時(shí),尤其對防洪庫容小的水庫,不得不考慮洪水預(yù)報(bào)誤差的問題。基于上述論述,本文針對英那河水庫,依據(jù)現(xiàn)有水庫水文資料,在分析洪水特性的基礎(chǔ)上,選擇適合的模型編制洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案；在考慮產(chǎn)流預(yù)報(bào)誤差的基礎(chǔ)上,制定英那河水庫防洪預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度規(guī)則,并分析調(diào)度規(guī)則的合理性。主要研究內(nèi)容與成果如下：(1)考慮英那河水庫水文資料年限短,觀測設(shè)備精度差導(dǎo)致資料的真實(shí)性降低的客觀事實(shí),對資料進(jìn)行可靠性、一致性、代表性審查,重點(diǎn)進(jìn)行水量平衡分析。對水文資料存在問題的地方,進(jìn)行修正或者插補(bǔ)延長。(2)本文選擇了21場雨洪關(guān)系合理的洪水。從下墊面條件、氣候狀況等方面分析英那河流域特性后,選用新安江模型進(jìn)行洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案編制。方案編制過程中,首先考慮不分類預(yù)報(bào),若不分類預(yù)報(bào)方案不能滿足精度和實(shí)際應(yīng)用要求,需要進(jìn)行洪水分類。產(chǎn)流模擬過程中未進(jìn)行分類,21場洪水有2場不合格,合格率達(dá)到90.5%,精度等級為甲級。匯流模擬未分類時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)精度較低,因此,依據(jù)初始土壤含水量對洪水進(jìn)行分類,參與模擬的17場洪水中有3場不合格,合格率達(dá)到82.3%,確定性系數(shù)較高,精度等級為乙級。洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案可以用于發(fā)布正式預(yù)報(bào)。(3)英那河水庫常規(guī)調(diào)度方式考慮預(yù)泄,但預(yù)泄規(guī)則不明確,因此,利用產(chǎn)流預(yù)報(bào)中的累計(jì)凈雨信息制定預(yù)泄規(guī)則,并結(jié)合實(shí)際入庫流量制定防洪預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度規(guī)則。首先,不考慮產(chǎn)流預(yù)報(bào)誤差,從防洪安全和供水安全角度出發(fā),依據(jù)累計(jì)凈雨和實(shí)測入庫流量建立防洪預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度規(guī)則；最后考慮產(chǎn)流預(yù)報(bào)誤差,在重點(diǎn)保障防洪安全的前提下,修正調(diào)度規(guī)則,并分析對水庫回蓄的影響,結(jié)果顯示,修正的規(guī)則可能對興利蓄水有一定影響,但概率很小。最后對全文進(jìn)行了總結(jié),且對有待進(jìn)一步深入的問題進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:The flood brought great loss of life and property to mankind. At present, there are two ways to deal with flood disaster: engineering measures and non-engineering measures. Reservoir, as an important engineering measure, has played a great role in flood control and disaster reduction. Correspondingly, the scientific and reasonable flood regulation, as an important non-engineering measure, makes the reservoir operate safely. The key to reduce flood losses and maximize flood resources. In real-time flood operation, flood forecast can not only prolong the forecast period, but also definite the flood information and help the dispatcher to make scientific decision. However, when implementing the rules of reservoir flood control forecasting and dispatching, especially for reservoirs with small flood control capacity, We have to consider the problem of flood forecast error. Based on the above discussion, according to the existing reservoir hydrological data, based on the analysis of flood characteristics, this paper selects a suitable model for flood forecasting, considering the error of runoff forecasting. The rules of flood control and forecast operation of Yingnahe Reservoir are formulated and the rationality of the rules is analyzed. The main research contents and results are as follows: (1) considering the objective fact that the hydrological data of Yingnahe Reservoir is short and the accuracy of observation equipment is poor, the reliability, consistency and representativeness of the data are examined. Emphasis is placed on water balance analysis. The problems in hydrological data are corrected or extended by interpolation. (2) 21 floods with reasonable relationship between rain and flood are selected in this paper. After analyzing the characteristics of Yingna River basin in terms of underlying surface conditions and climate conditions, the Xinanjiang model was selected to compile the flood forecasting scheme. In the process of making the scheme, the first consideration is not classified forecast, if not classified forecast scheme can not meet the accuracy and practical application requirements, flood classification needs to be carried out. In the process of runoff production simulation, there are 2 unqualified floods in 21 flood fields without classification, the qualified rate is 90.5 and the precision grade is Grade A. The forecasting accuracy of the confluence simulation is low when it is not classified, therefore, according to the initial soil moisture content, 3 of the 17 flood fields involved in the simulation are unqualified, the qualified rate is 82.3, the certainty coefficient is high, and the precision grade is B. The flood forecast scheme can be used to issue the official forecast. (3) the routine operation mode of Yingnahe Reservoir considers the pre-discharge, but the pre-discharge rules are not clear. Therefore, the accumulative net rain information in the runoff production forecast is used to formulate the pre-discharge rules. Combined with the actual flow into the reservoir, the flood control and forecast operation rules are formulated. First of all, without considering the error of runoff production forecast, from the point of view of flood control safety and water supply safety, the rules of flood control forecasting are established according to the accumulative net rain and the measured inflow discharge. Finally, considering the error of runoff production forecast, we should ensure the safety of flood control by focusing on the safety of flood control. The results show that the modified rules may have a certain effect on the reservoir storage, but the probability is very small. In the end, the paper summarizes the whole paper and looks forward to the further problems.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TV697.1

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 武煒;陳標(biāo);吳劍鋒;黃馗;;基于五點(diǎn)三次平滑算法的入庫流量反推研究[J];水利水電技術(shù);2013年12期

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本文編號(hào)：2106094